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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Barry

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so tuesday the river at NOLA crest was 19 feet

Weds got bumped up to 20 feet

Yesterday lowered back to 19,,based on a weaker system

right now its running ahead of  the 19 ft forecast points.. 16.57  at 12z vs 16.2 at 18z forecast point...and the river is backing up on all gauges

Barry is big and moving slow....both  positives  for higher surge compared to a smaller and faster moving system..and SE winds continue to funnel  water up the channel even before the main surge

I hope the forecast holds...

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Seems like a decoupled mid & low level center on Vis this am still. Can’t tell if that deep convection is firing over the low or mid level. That. Or it’s it just really elongated. 

 

Barry is currently in its half moon state . But the ir expansion to its southern half is huge. Let’s see if the convection this am can wrap around by this evening...

66E68462-F8D2-4DAC-8492-1569729BEAEE.jpeg

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A little late to the party with this information, but interestingly last night's UKMET cycle was still outside the NHC cone to the west.

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 14:03Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 
Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2019
Storm Name: Barry (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 13:19:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28.04N 90.12W
B. Center Fix Location: 134 statute miles (215 km) to the S (182°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,421m (4,662ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 360° at 1kts (From the N at 1mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 54kts (62.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the SE (127°) of center fix at 13:04:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 203° at 62kts (From the SSW at 71.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 53 nautical miles (61 statute miles) to the SE (127°) of center fix at 13:03:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 37kts (42.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix at 13:42:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 43° at 43kts (From the NE at 49.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 94 nautical miles (108 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix at 13:48:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) which was observed 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles) to the S (171°) from the flight level center at 12:26:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the ESE (120°) from the flight level center


Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
 

WND CALM ON DROPSONDE

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Is it me or does it look like the center of circulation moved a little bit to the southeast?

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9 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Looks like hurricane hunters might have missed that blowup just to the NW. Center recording 996.3 extrapolated.

Looks like 994.1mb extrapolated now. 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

73kt FL winds just found. 56kt SFMR.

Very curious to see how strong it gets over the next few hours, despite an asymmetrical appearance could very well start to see a steady strengthening trend now. 

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the river crest at NOLA remains at 19.0 but the time has been moved up from 18z to 12z 

not sure what caused that?.............SE winds will funnel water up the river but when winds turn south as the center makes landfall west will that stop the surge going up river? Slow it down? 

Also the GFS seems to have slowed landfall by about 6 hours over the warm swamps of LA..it possible there  could be some strengthening a c ouple hours after landfall as friction should cause a blowup of convection around the center ...wouldn't be surprised to see a tight mesolow form and rotate around a center as it makes landfall...I have seen this happen before with sloppy systems in this area

edit: 16:30 utc  they are putting baskets full of rocks at two low spots..one in the lower ninth ward and one by Corp headquarters in New Orleans

 

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8 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

the river crest at NOLA remains at 19.0 but the time has been moved up from 18z to 12z 

not sure what caused that?.............SE winds will funnel water up the river but when winds turn south as the center makes landfall west will that stop the surge going up river? Slow it down? 

Also the GFS seems to have slowed landfall by about 6 hours over the warm swamps of LA..it possible there  could be some strengthening a c ouple hours after landfall as friction should cause a blowup of convection around the center ...wouldn't be surprised to see a tight mesolow form and rotate around a center as it makes landfall...I have seen this happen before with sloppy systems in this area

 

 

I've been thinking since yesterday that TS/Hurricane Barry might have a "brown ocean" TCMI effect after making landfall over the already saturated terrain of Louisiana. And that Barry could actually strengthen for many hours after landfall, very much as Tropical Storm Allison did in 2001 over SE Texas. 

A"Tropical Cyclone Maintenance and Intensification Event or TCMI", per the Wiki: Brown ocean effect

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KMDJ 121615Z AUTO 16056G62KT 2SM BR SCT021 SCT026 26/25 A2951 RMK A01

Gusts up to 71MPH outside of convection at one of the oil platforms to the SE of Grand Isle. I don’t remember how high up these are though.

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The naked mini swirl ejected north is where the lowest pressure is but isn' t the center...994.3 mb just now

that vortex is rotating around a larger center...

I THINK a large CDO is forming with that vortex rotating around the inner "EYE WALL "  (not literally an eye) of it and the blob to the south the southern and SE "WALL" of it

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

The naked mini swirl ejected north is where the lowest pressure is but isn' t the center...994.3 mb just now

that vortex is rotating around a larger center...

I THINK a large CDO is forming with that vortex rotating around the inner "EYE WALL "  (not literally an eye) of it and the blob to the south the southern and SE "WALL" of it

Yeah I see that on radar too, was gonna point it out an hour ago but felt it was too early to tell.

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2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

The naked mini swirl ejected north is where the lowest pressure is but isn' t the center...994.3 mb just now

that vortex is rotating around a larger center...

I THINK a large CDO is forming with that vortex rotating around the inner "EYE WALL "  (not literally an eye) of it and the blob to the south the southern and SE "WALL" of it

Just looking at the GOES the naked mini swirl looks like it is the center.  Looking just south of it the low level clouds are moving east although the blob is south of that.  Kind of a strange Sat picture

 

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5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just looking at the GOES the naked mini swirl looks like it is the center.  Looking just south of it the low level clouds are moving east although the blob is south of that.  Kind of a strange Sat picture

 

or it could be one of several meso lows, each with their own local wind shifts,  rotating around... another under the blob???

1:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 12
Location: 28.4°N 90.6°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

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35 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just looking at the GOES the naked mini swirl looks like it is the center.  Looking just south of it the low level clouds are moving east although the blob is south of that.  Kind of a strange Sat picture

This does appear to be the case.  The circulation has become better defined, with the naked swirl as the center.  The rest of the eddies/swirls have washed out.  The latest dropsonde says 993 mb.  I would still expect the exact center to wobble around a bit along the coast.

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1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

or it could be one of several meso lows, each with their own local wind shifts,  rotating around... another under the blob???

1:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 12
Location: 28.4°N 90.6°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Now it appears to have taken over almost entirely and is about to make landfall early, then move back out over Atchafalaya bay and make a second landfall tomorrow.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02L&product=vis

 

Edit: Appears to have wobbled due west.  And yes this is the only center now, and is north of where any model had it.

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25 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I am seeing that we have 50 kt (58mph) wind gusts on land at Port Fourchon, and 69 kt (79mph) at KMDJ offshore station

2JTGSY4.jpg

Station KXPY - Port Fourchon Heliport (Era Helicopters) Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station KXPY

Weather Station
29.123 N 90.202 W (29°7'23" N 90°12'7" W)

Anemometer height: 30 m above site elevation

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