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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Barry

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GFS doesn't match the current convection well.  The RGEM is doing a better job.

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NHC basically says we’ve now got more shear than previously forecast, a ton of dry air entraining in from the north, and less time over water...but we are gonna leave the previous intensity forecast as is. Huh? 

Honestly I’ve been skeptical since yesterday of how quickly this system would gets its act together but after seeing all the above today I wouldn’t be surprised if it limps to 50-60mph and that’s it. Obviously still a heavy rain/flooding threat though. 

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29 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

NHC basically says we’ve now got more shear than previously forecast, a ton of dry air entraining in from the north, and less time over water...but we are gonna leave the previous intensity forecast as is. Huh? 

Honestly I’ve been skeptical since yesterday of how quickly this system would gets its act together but after seeing all the above today I wouldn’t be surprised if it limps to 50-60mph and that’s it. Obviously still a heavy rain/flooding threat though. 

I'm sure their reasoning is to err on the side of too strong so people take it seriously. They are usually quite resistant to decreasing forecast intensity, which is why I think they're better off starting with a very conservative forecast and working up from there. And I'm sure it's been discussed to death, but adding some kind of overall impact scale would help (although the media seems on top of the flood threat this time around)

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The last 10 minutes of HDOB showed an unflagged 49 and 53kt SFMR peak wind. Rain rates look high though so take with a grain of salt. 

While the northern half has been dominated by northerly shear and dry air, the southern portion looks decently vigorous per recon data. 

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Quote

 

Media probably has more awareness regarding freshwater flooding from hurricanes at the moment due to most of the damage from 2 of last 3 significant hurricanes to hit the mainland U.S. (Florence, Harvey) being from flooding. Regarding Barry atm, not terribly impressive with the IR imagery, not much convection near the COC.

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The last 10 minutes of HDOB showed an unflagged 49 and 53kt SFMR peak wind. Rain rates look high though so take with a grain of salt. 

While the northern half has been dominated by northerly shear and dry air, the southern portion looks decently vigorous per recon data. 

That's exactly what Levi was talking about in his update last night. Time will tell if convection can develop to the point where the dry air won't penetrate the core. 

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Just now, olafminesaw said:

That's exactly what Levi was talking about in his update last night. Time will tell if convection can develop to the point where the dry air won't penetrate the core. 

Every time I think it’ll get its act together there’s another hurdle but all the guidance still shows steady intensification as landfall approaches.

That said, water not wind is the greatest danger here. It’ll be interesting to see if the center gets pulled a bit by the southern convention.

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New Orleans is advising residents to shelter in place. They will not be issuing evacuation orders.

Seems like a bad idea. 

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Yeah my previous post wasn’t to dismiss potential impacts. And really whether it stays minimal tropical storm or reaches minimal hurricane isn’t that important at this point. Impacts will be generally similar. 

Finally seeing a nice burst of convection over/near the apparent center so let’s see what happens.

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12 minutes ago, MUWX said:

New Orleans is advising residents to shelter in place. They will not be issuing evacuation orders.

Seems like a bad idea. 

Agree... @mappy posted this about it

21 minutes ago, mappy said:

this.. seems like a bad idea on many levels

making evacuation decisions based on the category is asking for problems. a Cat 1 storm can have devastating surge impacts. 

 

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Wonder if they're trying to avoid a Rita-esque scenario with regards to evacuations...

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 regardless if this becomes a hurricane or not the heavy rain and flooding  it is still going to be severe so not having an a  evacuations is a big no-no in my eyes 

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?

Did they find a new center?

There was a significant extrapolated pressure drop all the way to ~998-1000mb before gaining altitude. 994.8mb at about 948 ft. Not sure what happened there.

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2 hours ago, MUWX said:

New Orleans is advising residents to shelter in place. They will not be issuing evacuation orders.

Seems like a bad idea. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

This logic is wrong. In order to be correct you would have to have proof that the evacuation didn't mitigate the deaths of more than what died during the evacuation. IE had the people not evacuated would they have been killed.

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7 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

This logic is wrong. In order to be correct you would have to have proof that the evacuation didn't mitigate the deaths of more than what died during the evacuation. IE had the people not evacuated would they have been killed.

Yes, this published piece of peer reviewed research must be wrong. Can’t believe nobody thought of disproving a negative before hitting publish.

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15 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Yes, this published piece of peer reviewed research must be wrong. Can’t believe nobody thought of disproving a negative before hitting publish.

There was no negative to be disproved before getting that research paper published as the conclusion was that better planning needs to go into the evacuation process to mitigate deaths from the process itself, not that the evacuation didn't prevent deaths. Ashley Morris however is using the article to insinuate that, which is the flawed logic. 

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21 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

There was no negative to be disproved before getting that research paper published as the conclusion was that better planning needs to go into the evacuation process to mitigate deaths from the process itself, not that the evacuation didn't prevent deaths. Ashley Morris however is using the article to insinuate that, which is the flawed logic. 

She's an emergency management planner. What are you credentials?  The only point I see being made is that the decision and the evacuation process is far more complicated than people might realize. 

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Before it's pointed out, NHC still expects a hurricane with the 5 PM advisory despite it not being shown on actual forecast points. Hurricane warnings up now also. 40 MPH/1003 MB though it's stated that may be a little conservative.

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4:00 pm advisory down to 70 mph for peak wind. The do say a cane is still very possible.

 

 

.

Barry is still being affected by northerly shear, and GOES-16

airmass imagery indicates mid- to upper-level dry air coming from

the northeast has spread over the low-level center. So far, this

has not stopped the development, and the guidance is in good

agreement that intensification will continue. Thus, the new

intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling for

intensification until landfall. While not explicitly shown in the

forecast, there is a significant chance that Barry will be a

hurricane when it makes landfall between 36-48 h in agreement with

the HWRF and GFS models. After landfall, Barry should weaken as it

moves through the Mississippi Valley, and it is forecast to become

a remnant low by 96 h.

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1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Before it's pointed out, NHC still expects a hurricane with the 5 PM advisory despite it not being shown on actual forecast points. Hurricane warnings up now also. 40 MPH/1003 MB though it's stated that may be a little conservative.

I’m really anxious to see what recon finds next time they’re out. There were some interesting pieces of data that came right at the end of that last mission, and since then a low level swirl has pushed under that western area that has been producing good convection the last few hours.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m really anxious to see what recon finds next time they’re out. There were some interesting pieces of data that came right at the end of that last mission, and since then a low level swirl has pushed under that western area that has been producing good convection the last few hours.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a 45 knot TS. Despite it being sheared, it has really gotten its act together vs 6 AM this morning. Also will be interesting to see future west shifts  like with what the 12z Euro and GFS did. They were slight west shifts, but miles matter in this one. 

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44 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

She's an emergency management planner. What are you credentials?  The only point I see being made is that the decision and the evacuation process is far more complicated than people might realize. 

Not that I need credentials to have an opinion but I’m an engineering manager so I routinely have to determine wether data is valid as part of root cause analysis. 

Secondly you’re wrong. Because of her statement that more people died during the evacuation than from the storm. She’s clearly implying that the evacuations were a mistake. My point is that there is no way to know that definitively. 

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6 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Not that I need credentials to have an opinion but I’m an engineering manager so I routinely have to determine wether data is valid as part of root cause analysis. 

Secondly you’re wrong. Because of her statement that more people died during the evacuation than from the storm. She’s clearly implying that the evacuations were a mistake. My point is that there is no way to know that definitively. 

She didn't say that, man. Many people immediately think: "BAD STORM---EVACUATE EVERYBODY!" This is evidence to say that its everything is not so black and white. She never said evacuation was a mistake. 

PSSST. If you are bashing evacuation decision-making, you might want to make sure you have a clear understanding of what goes into it (resources/timing/capabilities). Did you know? More people died in Rita from evacuations than the storm itself? https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)51609-2/abstract 

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