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Hurricane Barry

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25 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Question, and I apologize if this belongs in banter.

 

In regards to the 20’ crest for the MS river, is that due to the previous hydrological issues from this late spring/summer time? Or is it strictly based off mode wow output?

usually the river during hurricane season is 4-8 ft...this year 16 feet due to all of the rain up north....its been around that level last winter, spring, and now summer...for a record length...

last month it was 17 feet...and I think it hit 17 feet earlier in the year too

if the river does get this high during a heavy flood season its usually for a short time in April to May,,then it falls off by the time hurricane season get here...

not this year

now if they didn't divert all the water upstream it would have gone over 20 feet....they can control how much water get diverted that is why the river stays rather flatline 16-17 feet during a flood for a  period of time...but now you have surge coming up the river plus water ever rain is falling ...that is why it  will be rising ...because of the upstream surge

as I explained a few post back there really isn't a watershed in SE LA ..just the river channel..but getting inches of rain in that channel still results is a minor rise

so I would guess 80% of that rise is from the surge and 20% new rainfall...

 

I might add that the river is now 16.16 up from 15.98 ft 24 hours ago ...and early this morning  ... ahead of the forecast  point for now of 16.0 ft

This couple of inch rise Is from the downpour over and just upstream of the gauge....odds are if it doesn't rain any more this "crest bubble" will move downstream and the river will fall back to its 12z forecast point of 16.0ft..time will tell

in this case every inch may count

 

 

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8 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Question, and I apologize if this belongs in banter.

 

In regards to the 20’ crest for the MS river, is that due to the previous hydrological issues from this late spring/summer time? Or is it strictly based off mode wow output?

It’s based on a combination. Much of the Mississippi has been at or above moderate to major flood stage for a long period of time. Add in a slow moving rainmaker like this and the risk of a major flooding event dramatically increases.

https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/obsfcst_mobile_FGMISSISSIPPI

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HWRF and HMON 18z are quite identical through 03z Saturday, with a strong hurricane heading into East Louisiana, similar to GFS's track but more intense. 

Note: They both have about the same exact landfall points and intensity when HMON is adjusted for the fact most of Southeastern Louisiana is swampy marsh. 

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lots of great info on the Levee situation here (Levee overtops downstream and on the West Bank may help NOLA)

 

New Orleans’ Achilles Heel: A Hurricane Storm Surge During a Mississippi River Flood?
Dr. Jeff Masters  ·  July 10, 2019, 5:28 PM EDT

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/New-Orleans-Achilles-Heel-Hurricane-Storm-Surge-During-Mississippi-River-Flood

 

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2 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

usually the river during hurricane season is 4-8 ft...this year 16 feet due to all of the rain up north....its been around that level last winter, spring, and now summer...for a record length...

last month it was 17 feet...and I think it hit 17 feet earlier in the year too

if the river does get this high during a heavy flood season its usually for a short time in April to May,,then it falls off by the time hurricane season get here...

not this year

now if they didn't divert all the water upstream it would have gone over 20 feet....they can control how much water get diverted that is why the river stays rather flatline 16-17 feet during a flood for a  period of time...but now you have surge coming up the river plus water ever rain is falling ...that is why it  will be rising ...because of the upstream surge

as I explained a few post back there really isn't a watershed in SE LA ..just the river channel..but getting inches of rain in that channel still results is a minor rise

so I would guess 80% of that rise is from the surge and 20% new rainfall...

 

I might add that the river is now 16.16 up from 15.98 ft 24 hours ago ...and early this morning  ... ahead of the forecast  point for now of 16.0 ft

This couple of inch rise Is from the downpour over and just upstream of the gauge....odds are if it doesn't rain any more this "crest bubble" will move downstream and the river will fall back to its 12z forecast point of 16.0ft..time will tell

in this case every inch may count

 

 

You've done a great job covering the anomalous precip from the upper Midwest all the way down the watershed this year.  The exceptional flooding rains of early spring through early June in the Midwest/upper Midwest have started affecting the lower Mississippi the last few weeks.  The Missouri is in a similar situation as the Mississippi currently and still needs to release so any pressure upstream there is only going to exasperate the issues farther south especially as the flow naturally slows down the farther south you go.  As you have pointed out in various threads through out this spring early summer season, it's been a nightmare for flood control release/hold up and down the watershed.  Towns in IL. flooding to save more serious flooding downstream, the extreme flooding along the Red River basin mid-late winter/early spring.  The Mississippi watershed is flexing it's muscle this year and the defenses we have in place, even if managed properly,  may succumb to will of nature.  Not looking forward to the blame game that could ensue if some of these precip totals pan out.  Sometimes she just wins.

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1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

It looks like the 18Z ECMWF is a hair west.

Not liking westward turns.  Keeps pushing its eventual landfall remains in its northward turn over Kansas and we have way, way too much flooding already.

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CZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

The system is becoming better organized, and it is almost a
tropical depression. Satellite images show a persistent area of
deep convection near the estimated center with loosely organized
bands surrounding that feature. Earlier, the NOAA Hurricane Hunters
found that the pressure has dropped a little to 1009 mb, although
the center is not yet well defined. The estimated initial intensity
is still 25 kt based on surface observations and the NOAA dropsonde
data.

The broad low is moving west-southwestward at about 8 kt. The track
models are in general agreement that a mid-level ridge centered over
the Rockies should cause the system to move slowly westward on
Thursday and west-northwestward on Friday. After that time,
however, the models diverge considerably with some solutions showing
an abrupt northward turn toward a weakness in the ridge and others
showing a more gradual one. The latest GFS run has shifted to the
west of its previous track, closer to the previous NHC forecast,
while the HWRF model has shifted to the right. Based on the overall
guidance spread, this track forecast is nudged to the east of the
previous forecast to be closer to the various consensus models,
which typically are the most reliable. However, this forecast is
still near the western edge of the model envelope. It should be
noted that track errors are typically larger for potential tropical
cyclones than more mature systems. In addition, the run-to-run
consistency in the track models has been poor, so confidence in the
details of the forecast is not high at the moment.

Since the system is still in the formative stage, only slow
strengthening is likely during the next 12 hours or so. However,
after that time more significant strengthening is likely due to
very warm SSTs across the northern Gulf of Mexico, a fairly moist
atmosphere, and a favorable upper-level pattern over the system.
The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one
and shows the system becoming a tropical storm on Thursday and a
hurricane by late Friday. Additional strengthening is likely
beyond the 48-hour point and the time it makes landfall, which is
predicted to occur in a little less than 3 days. This forecast is
fairly close to the IVCN and HCCA models.

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Despite not becoming a tropical depression today, 92L has made a lot of progress. At the start of the day, the system had intense but very disorganized convection, with mid and low level centers that were misaligned. By the middle of the day and early evening, you could see a number of low level swirls under some of the waning convection, but the mid level center had enough consistent convection to (I believe) begin to organize a more aligned center. 

Right now, the convection is still a bit ragged but it's clear that there's gradual organization taking place with convection continuing to fire in the center. We just have to see what happens if/when we see a well developed center. 

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CMC now pretty close to the GFS with landfall in SE LA.  NHC still way to far west if that verifies.

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Banding features becoming more organized and its actually beginning to look a tad like a  tropical cyclone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Tropical Depression in a few updates.

goes16_vis-swir_02L_201907110527.jpg?27.9272.2

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For the exception of the UKMet (which continues to hold off the weakness longer, driving Barry into ETX and therefore models a much stronger hurricane), most of the 0z globals have trended weaker and east. Even the stronger intensity model guidance backed down, including the 0z HWRF, though oddly it continues intensifying Barry until it has crossed the Ponchartrain. Additionally the 0z ECMWF is noticeably closer to land on initial WNW track prior to northward turn into landfall. Obviously things can change quickly if a surface vort forms and ramps up in the short term; but with respect to location and intensity, the 0z consensus definitely leaned weaker and east.

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06z HWRF and HMON now take Barry north, tracking the center east of New Orleans.  Both models barely have a drop of rain west of New Orleans.

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For those of you that follow Levi on Twitter. He has a series of tweets this am that explain what’s going on with the system. Very informative!


.

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Totally agree. I think the ceiling lowers with each hour it’s not able to overcome the shear.

What role, if any, do you think frictional convergence could play in tightening this up as it gets closer to landfall?

Looks like recon is finding some pockets of stronger winds, but the center is still poorly defined.

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12 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

For those of you that follow Levi on Twitter. He has a series of tweets this am that explain what’s going on with the system. Very informative!


.

Levi and Philipe are the two best tropical accounts sans NHC to follow.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Levi and Philipe are the two best tropical accounts sans NHC to follow.

Would you be so kind as to link them, please? I know Papin, but the other?

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Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become
better organized during the past several hours, with a large
convective band in the southern semicircle.  The circulation
center has also become better defined, although it is still
elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the
mean center.  In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft report flight-level and SFMR winds high enough for
an initial intensity of 35 kt.  Based on these developments, the
system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/4.  Barry is being
steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a
weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next
24-48 h.  This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and
eventually northward.  However, there is a large spread in the track
guidance.  The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move almost due
north from its current position with a landfall in Mississippi,
while the UKMET takes the cyclone to the upper Texas coast.  The
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes.
Overall, there has been a slight eastward shift of the guidance
envelope, so the new forecast track is also adjusted slightly to
the east.  It should be noted, though, that the new track is west
of the consensus models.

Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery
indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from
the northeast.  Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until
the cyclone makes landfall.  Despite this less than ideal
environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification,
so the NHC forecast follows this trend.  The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a
hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the
HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Barry is expected to bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to the central Gulf Coast during the next several days.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning has been issued. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.
Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local
officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
much of the Louisiana coast and additional watches and warnings
could be required later today. Residents in these areas should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 27.8N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 27.8N  89.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 28.1N  90.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 28.6N  90.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 29.4N  91.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 32.0N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  15/1200Z 34.5N  91.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  16/1200Z 37.0N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

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