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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Barry

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I'm assuming the US Army Corp of Engineers has a plan for this kind of thing? Morganza Spillway?

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So the question is.... why would the HWRF take Barry north to New Orleans while the UK tracks west to Texas?  They are both fairly strong.

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

So the question is.... why would the HWRF take Barry north to New Orleans while the UK tracks west to Texas?  They are both fairly strong.

the 11 am disco from NHC hinted as to the reason in case you missed it :)

Quote
By Friday, the cyclone is forecast to turn
toward the west-northwest and then turn northwestward by Saturday
into a developing break in a deep-layer ridge that currently extends
from the southeastern U.S. westward across the southern Plains and
into the Desert Southwest. The timing of the ridge breakdown owing
to a shortwave trough moving southeastward out of the northern
Plains will be critical since a later/earlier turn by the cyclone
would shift the track west/east of the current forecast. The model
guidance is widely divergent after 48 hours with the UKMET model the
farthest west showing landfall along the Upper Texas coast, and the
GFS and HMON models farther east with landfall in south-central
Louisiana. The ECMWF model is about midway between these two
extremes, and the official track forecast leans toward that
model since it has performed well during this system's
pre-development phase.  Note that forecast uncertainty for
disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

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Gfs has lower pressures over the apps and tenn valley at hr 6. This might be helping with the further east development and track.

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2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

A fairly aggressive forecast. There's seems to have been a noticeable shift the past couple years by the NHC to forecast intensity based on model consensus, even a little on the high side, rather than starting conservative and working up from there.

I wonder why the NHC takes the opposite approach when forecasting eastern Pacific storms.

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I’m not buying the due west track into Texas. It seems to me that it’s a very unusual track given a) a starting Latitude that easily feels the westerlies and typically sees recurvature (climo), b)Absence of a robust WAR (which we clearly don’t have).

Steering flow appears weak and ambiguous after the trough largely misses, but leaves a slight weakness in its wake. Right now I strongly prefer the meander n/nnw into LA. 

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I may delete Twitter if I see one more image of the 3k NAM. I think it's a well understood concept that its absolutely garbage at forecasting hurricanes.

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Euro is similar to the gfs but slightly west. Cmc and ukmet are on their own bringing it into texas.

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Model bias and history tells me the gfs and the east track. is probably a little too emphatic about breaking down ridging/developing a break or weakness. However until/if the system develops, where and future intensity, it is a crap shoot more or less.

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Models may be spread on strength/landfall but they all are throwing a strong signal for the potential of over 2 feet of rain in a very short period.

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10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I don't see anything yet that resembles a strong enough surface cort

Yeah I agree... doubt it will be a TD or TS at the 5pm NHC update... probably still be PTC Two

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15 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Models may be spread on strength/landfall but they all are throwing a strong signal for the potential of over 2 feet of rain in a very short period.

 It is certainly looking like Hydro issues are going to be the headlines with this system.  Troubling if  we see verification of the extreme QPF scenarios.   

 I have a very good friend down in New Orleans who told me there is little concern amongst the public down there, so far,  from what he has heard.

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It really looks like a developing tropical cyclone right now, the broad low is becoming a tightening center southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

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Papin is cluing in on a possible location for the surface vort developing. As far as intensity modeling goes, until that develops, I would just try to take these HWRFs runs with much reluctance. The first two runs failed to simulate the strong convective feature overland along the hanging surface trough this morning. The same feature that caused flash flooding in New Orleans. Which that has/will hamper establishment of MCS development closer to the center of the 850-700 mb level vort. However, there has still been persistent convection with lightning data trying to converge into that suspicious area Papin is pointing out. Also the 12z HWRF did finally have that overland convective complex and yet still tries to rapidly stack a surface and mid level vortex a good distance SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi. If this disturbance is going to become a strong hurricane, tonight is critical for formation and vortex alignment to occur. Regardless, inland accumulation totals received a big head start / boost. Looking less likely LA avoids a flooding disaster no matter the eventual landfall strength of the TC.

 

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Don't think I've seen across the board model consensus on this much precip since Harvey.  Locations TBD.  The Euro is tossing 30+ inches in spots.

 

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3 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I'm assuming the US Army Corp of Engineers has a plan for this kind of thing? Morganza Spillway?

I'm assuming the US Army Corp of Engineers has a plan for this kind of thing?

Acording to the chatter that past couple of days ...No they don't ..

Morganza Spillway- way to late...it takes days for the affect to reach NOLA from there. also there is no way you would want that much water going down the Atchafalaya when a surge is coming in..the low-level small towns and Morgan city would be flooded.  They almost opened the spillway last month and having it opened during hurricane season was a major concern at the time

As I mentioned yesterday, The should have started to open more bays on the Bonnet Carre Spillway..this is about 30 miles upstream..its a very slow process...too late now..but any little bit would have helped

I would also start to evacuate Areas along the river where the protection is only 20 feet like NOW..keep in mind that doesn't include any waves.   The levee system has got to be stressed because the river has been very high since mid-winter.   

Yesterday the forecast was 19 ft with a Tropical storm. today 20 feet with the rather aggressive mid CAT 1....any surprises and it could go ever higher

hopefully if it does it will only overtop for a short time and not breach it...

I don't understand way some voluntary evacuations have not started yet..at least get the first tier out

 

 

 

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 87.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended westward to Intracoastal
City Louisiana.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi
River westward to Cameron Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the Mouth of
the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the broad disturbance was centered near
latitude 28.1 North, longitude 87.4 West. The system is moving
toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning,
followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward
the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwestward
motion is expected.  On the forecast track, the system is expected
to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday
morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft and surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

Data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, surface
observations, and satellite imagery indicate that the broad low
pressure system located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico still
lacks a well-defined circulation center. Multiple low-level swirls
associated with individual convective cells were noted in the
aircraft wind data. However, shower and thunderstorm activity has
been increasing over the past couple of hours in the previously
convective-free northern semicircle, an indication that low-level
wind field is beginning to improve in that region of the cyclone.
Upper-level outflow has become well established except to the north
where modest northerly wind shear is inhibiting the outflow. The
initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier scatterometer wind
data and recent recon winds of 25-30 kt to the south and west of the
center.

The initial motion estimate remains 245/07 kt. The latest model
guidance continues in good agreement on the cyclone moving generally
toward the west-southwest or southwest for the next 24 hours or so,
followed by a westward motion on Friday. Afterwards, however, the
model guidance diverges significantly. The 12Z ECMWF, GFS, HWRF,
and HMON models have shifted farther east and turn the cyclone
northwestward to northward in 48-72 hours, moving it inland along
the south-central and southeastern coasts of Louisiana. In contrast,
the UKMET has shifted farther west and keeps the system on more of
westward track, taking it inland along the central Texas coast. The
main difference is how the models handle the ridge to the north,
with the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and HMON rapidly eroding the ridge as a
weak shortwave trough passes to the north of the cyclone, whereas
the UKMET shows the ridge not weakening as much due to the
shortwave trough weakening as it lifts out to the east, which
allows the ridge to remain intact. Due to this significant
bifurcation in NHC's most reliable track model guidance, the best
course of action is to slow down the forward speed and only make
minor adjustments to the overall tack, which has been shifted
slightly to the east, but not as far east as the simple consensus
and HCCA models.

Only slow strengthening is forecast for the next 24-36 hours due to
the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of very low vertical wind shear, an
impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the global and
regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures of
30-31C should allow for significant intensification to hurricane
strength before landfall occurs after 72 hours. Given that the
system is still in the formative stages, the official intensity
forecast remains a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form by Thursday over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Additional storm surge watches may be needed later tonight or
tomorrow. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system and listen to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for much of the Louisiana coast
and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches could be needed
later tonight or tomorrow. Residents in the watch area should ensure
they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 28.1N  87.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  11/0600Z 27.7N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  11/1800Z 27.5N  89.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 36H  12/0600Z 27.6N  90.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 28.2N  91.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 29.3N  92.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 31.9N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
120H  15/1800Z 34.8N  93.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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31 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Don't think I've seen across the board model consensus on this much precip since Harvey.  Locations TBD.  The Euro is tossing 30+ inches in spots.

 

It's hard to see how this produces more rain than Lee in 2011, which had a similar track speed and intensity to the Barry forecast. Rain amounts were in the 10-15 range across se LA

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Question, and I apologize if this belongs in banter.

 

In regards to the 20’ crest for the MS river, is that due to the previous hydrological issues from this late spring/summer time? Or is it strictly based off mode wow output?

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