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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Barry

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So the 2nd run of the HWRF continues with a 24 hr period of rapid intensification on Friday like the 1st run. @ 0z Fri, Barry is still a 990 mb TS. By 0z Sat it is a 960 mb major hurricane and continues rapid deepening through landfall. Whatever it is sniffing out is hopefully wrong. It really gets the vortex aligned and stacked by Thursday morning. It doesn't seem to mind the northerly shear or has Barry's vort tucked just enough under the eastern periphery of the upper ridge over TX.

 

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The old surface boundary with the weak surface vort near the panhandle looks barren where convection on SAT and echoes on radar have dissipated pretty drastically since 0z. Deep convection and a lot of lightning data is converging on the axis around the 700 mb level vort that pushed further south. You can see this very clearly unfolding on IR. If a new surface vort forms there later today, things may get interesting relatively quickly.88afa0a98704b0a156d3cd1ef2576565.gif

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6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The old surface boundary with the weak surface vort near the panhandle looks completely barren where convection on SAT and echoes on radar have dissipated pretty drastically since 0z. Deep convection and a lot of lightning data is converging on the axis around the 700 mb level vort that pushed further south. You can see this very clearly unfolding on IR. If a new surface vort forms there later today, things may get interesting relatively quickly.88afa0a98704b0a156d3cd1ef2576565.gif

I’m just taking a good look at the overnight guidance. While not well defined yet, it looks like there’s a consensus among the guidance (currently at least) that we do see more robust development, even in some of the more eastern solutions. Today’s a big day I think for narrowing the envelope of possibilities. 

 

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FYI

NOUS42 KNHC 091625
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT TUE 09 JULY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z JULY 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-042

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
       A. 10/1800Z                   A. 11/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 02BBA AL92
       C. 10/1700Z                   C. 10/2000Z
       D. 28.3N 86.2W                D. NA
       E. 10/1730Z TO 10/2300Z       E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. 15,000 TO 25,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75        FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 42
       A. 11/0530Z                   A. 11/1000Z
       B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
       C. 11/0415Z                   C. 11/0800Z
       D. 27.9N 87.8W                D. 27.8N 88.3W
       E. 11/0500Z TO 11/0830Z       E. 11/1030Z TO 11/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 76
       A. 11/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0502A CYCLONE
       C. 11/1000Z
       D. 27.7N 88.5W
       E. 11/1100Z TO 11/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
          A THREAT.
       B. NOAA 42 P-3 TDR MISSIONS DEPARTING KLAL AT 11/2000Z AND
          12/0800Z.

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At the end of the day strength of this may be a rather minute factor...unless we're talking about something that could potentially get into high end 1 or category 2 type strength. Regardless of strength rainfall looks to be rather significant and storm surge could be an issue. It really won't take much for those rivers to rapidly rise. If I lived in southern LA or New Orleans area I don't think I'd be sleeping very easy the next few days. 

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Just recorded 6.22' in 2.5 hours at the Superdome in LA

K7N0 101256Z AUTO VRB06KT 1/2SM +TSRA FG OVC009 24/24 A2999 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSE45B47 CIG 006V013 SLP154 P0220 T02440239 RVRNO

K7N0 101356Z AUTO VRB03KT 1/2SM +TSRA FG FEW004 BKN009 OVC018 23/23 A2999 RMK AO2 PK WND 29031/1312 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSE48B50 CIG 006V011 SLP155 P0294 T02330228 RVRNO

K7N0 101428Z AUTO VRB04KT 3SM TSRA BR SCT006 BKN015 OVC026 24/23 A3000 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSE23B27 P0108

 

Heaviest has moved West of N.O. Proper at least for now.

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM BY THURSDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 86.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl
River to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to Morgan City, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be
issued later today or tonight west of Morgan City.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 28.5 North, longitude 86.4 West. The system is moving
toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning,
followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn
toward the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwest
motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is
expected to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday
morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Thursday or early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Gotta love the 3K NAM having an 866! MB super cane sitting south of Louisiana LOL It’s good at handling some things but hurricanes are not one of them. 

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

High-resolution satellite imagery along with surface and upper-air
data indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become a little better defined. The
initial intensity of 25 kt is based on an average of 1-minute wind
speeds of 20-33 kt reported by ships and buoys well south of the
poorly defined center. Although the system is currently experiencing
some northerly vertical wind shear, the shear is expected to
gradually subside over the next day or so, and the low has a high
chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by
Thursday. Since this system has the potential to bring tropical
storm conditions and storm surge to portions of the coast of
Louisiana by late Thursday or Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone
advisories are being initiated at this time.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 245/07 kt. Some erratic
motion will be possible during the 24 hours or until a well-defined
center develops. However, the general motion as indicated by the
global and regional models is expected to be toward the west-
southwest or southwest. By Friday, the cyclone is forecast to turn
toward the west-northwest and then turn northwestward by Saturday
into a developing break in a deep-layer ridge that currently extends
from the southeastern U.S. westward across the southern Plains and
into the Desert Southwest. The timing of the ridge breakdown owing
to a shortwave trough moving southeastward out of the northern
Plains will be critical since a later/earlier turn by the cyclone
would shift the track west/east of the current forecast. The model
guidance is widely divergent after 48 hours with the UKMET model the
farthest west showing landfall along the Upper Texas coast, and the
GFS and HMON models farther east with landfall in south-central
Louisiana. The ECMWF model is about midway between these two
extremes, and the official track forecast leans toward that
model since it has performed well during this system's
pre-development phase.  Note that forecast uncertainty for
disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

Only slow strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours due to
the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear
conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the
global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface
temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification, but given
that the system is still in the formative stages, the official
intensity forecast is a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or
Thursday. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen
to a hurricane at it approaches the central Gulf Coast by the
weekend.

2. Dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southeast
Louisiana, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for this area.
The risk for dangerous storm surge impacts also exists farther west
along the Louisiana coast into the Upper Texas coast, and additional
storm surge watches may be needed later today or tonight. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
Louisiana coast and additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches
could be needed later today or tonight for the remainder of the
Louisiana coast and the Upper Texas Coast.

4. The system has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall along
and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week. For
more information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 28.5N  86.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  11/0000Z 27.9N  87.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  11/1200Z 27.5N  88.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 36H  12/0000Z 27.4N  89.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 27.6N  90.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 28.7N  92.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 30.7N  93.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
120H  15/1200Z 32.6N  94.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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A fairly aggressive forecast. There's seems to have been a noticeable shift the past couple years by the NHC to forecast intensity based on model consensus, even a little on the high side, rather than starting conservative and working up from there.

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7 minutes ago, stormswatch said:

 

 

7 minutes ago, stormswatch said:

Gotta love the 3K NAM having an 866! MB super cane sitting south of Louisiana LOL It’s good at handling some things but hurricanes are not one of them.

Where did you see that. All I see is a cat-1 cane on the latest model?nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

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Saw a tweet that showed the Mississippi was now forecast to crest at over 20 feet at New Orleans, which would likely top levees there.

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New UKMET is still pretty far west.

1200UTC 11.07.2019   24  27.8N  89.6W     1006            33
    0000UTC 12.07.2019   36  27.5N  90.7W      997            41
    1200UTC 12.07.2019   48  27.2N  92.6W      987            63
    0000UTC 13.07.2019   60  27.5N  94.0W      972            72
    1200UTC 13.07.2019   72  28.4N  95.2W      947            88
    0000UTC 14.07.2019   84  29.7N  96.3W      965            52
    1200UTC 14.07.2019   96  31.3N  97.3W      976            47
    0000UTC 15.07.2019  108  32.7N  99.0W      984            37
    1200UTC 15.07.2019  120  33.9N 100.1W      993            34
    0000UTC 16.07.2019  132  35.2N 101.3W      997            30
    1200UTC 16.07.2019  144  36.9N 101.0W      997

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56 minutes ago, stormswatch said:

 

Where did you see that. All I see is a cat-1 cane on the latest model?nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

That’s the 32k NAM, switch to the Hi Res 3k NAM on TT

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59 minutes ago, stormswatch said:

 

Where did you see that. All I see is a cat-1 cane on the latest model?nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

He was talking about the hires NAM model.  I think it shows an 899mb hurricane.

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The obsession about the nam and hurricanes for like 15 years running has never ceased to amaze me. Its trash. How many times does it have to be said? 

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11 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lix&gage=norl1

20.0' would be 6th highest on record, all higher levels were before the levees were built.

The Mississippi is at or above flood stage nearly it's entire length (As is the Missouri).  A more western landfall could create huge issues up river especially if the east quadrant meanders more north than east.  Still quite a bit of spread on the post landfall motion.

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21 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

New UKMET is still pretty far west.

Its still pretty aggressive with intensification as well.

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Quite the range of possibilities, even as the system begins to organize.  UK way west, Canadian west, 00z Euro west-ish, GFS east, old GFS way east, HMON way east, HWRF east.

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