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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Barry

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The Euro is in-line with the other guidance and that really doesn't look like a good solution for LA or New Orleans. Incredible convection continue to blossoming too...looks like getting a bit more organized around the northern fringe of the broad circulation...? 

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4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

UKMET has a 955 low going jnto the LA/TX border.

Where did you see that? I saw something entirely different on their site.. ~990mb

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Where did you see that? I saw something entirely different on their site.. ~990mb

I saw that too on weatherbell. (Not that I'm buying it)

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I saw that too on weatherbell. (Not that I'm buying it)

Yeah, that’s really explosive deepening. It doesn’t take much inner core disorganization to put a lid on high end intensification.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, that’s really explosive deepening. It doesn’t take much inner core disorganization to put a lid on high end intensification.

I could see some legit strengthening and this being a hurricane but I doubt we would see something that strong...unless perhaps the main circulation took a more south trajectory into the Gulf and it had more time to become organized. 

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I could see some legit strengthening and this being a hurricane but I doubt we would see something that strong...unless perhaps the main circulation took a more south trajectory into the Gulf and it had more time to become organized. 

Another way to get there would be if 92L consolidated into a smaller system. Those can ramp up or down very quickly and in this favorable environment (even with some light northerly shear) I think it would have a greater chance to intensify quickly with enough of an inner core. 

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It's not surprising to see one of the big three models show rapid intensification in one of its operational runs like the last 12z Ukie. If any single op by the ECMWF, GFS or UKMET globals manage to vertically stack the surface, 850 and 700 mb vorts faster, then the only limiting factors become northerly 15kt 400-200 mb flow and proximity of vortex to land. Obviously if we see convection become dominate along the mid level axis west of Tampa Bay and we have a new surface vortex form under that feature, then the threat of a much stronger TC increases significantly. This buys time for faster development and possible cyclogenesis at a slightly lower latitude. I would err on the side of caution in expecting this IRL however. A single op run showing much faster aligning vortexes needs to become a trend even if having a single modeled run presents a realistic possibility of how that scenario occurs. Regardless, we'll actually have real time observation if this is unfolding (or not) by 12z tomorrow as convection should really take off this evening and over night.

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F5 weather/Eurowx.com had the strong hurricane for UKMET as well, way lower than 980 at landfall western LA. Certainly a cat 2, with the wind gust estimates at 125 mph. Not buying into that. If this system/Barry makes landfall in central/western LA the rainfall will be the largest issue. Mississippi River is not capable of handling a large rain event.

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55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Where did you see that? I saw something entirely different on their site.. ~990mb

Ryan Maue posted it on Twitter, and I saw it on weather.us too.   

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3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Ryan Maue posted it on Twitter, and I saw it on weather.us too.   

Thanks. I totally missed it. 

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20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. I totally missed it. 

Ya like others have said it seems a little too bullish, but the GFS doing a 180 from its 6z run + the euro holding its ground is enough to at least raise an eyebrow.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Where did you see that? I saw something entirely different on their site.. ~990mb

 

Raw text has it as well.

  NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N  87.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 11.07.2019   48  28.1N  88.8W     1005            32
    0000UTC 12.07.2019   60  27.8N  90.0W      995            43
    1200UTC 12.07.2019   72  28.3N  91.6W      982            68
    0000UTC 13.07.2019   84  28.6N  92.6W      966            75
    1200UTC 13.07.2019   96  29.8N  93.6W      946            82
    0000UTC 14.07.2019  108  31.5N  94.2W      975            40
    1200UTC 14.07.2019  120  33.2N  94.5W      980            39
    0000UTC 15.07.2019  132  34.8N  95.2W      988            28
    1200UTC 15.07.2019  144  36.2N  95.7W      994            28
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NWS New Orleans has updated its stage forecast to account for future TC impacts. Obviously this is fluid and could go up or down depending on how the official TC and precip forecast evolves.

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I could see some legit strengthening and this being a hurricane but I doubt we would see something that strong...unless perhaps the main circulation took a more south trajectory into the Gulf and it had more time to become organized. 

The gfs is still shows nw shear increasing as it approaches land as well as a lopsided storm. Even if it gets stronger than expected it should weaken on final approach.

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18z GFS brings future Barry ashore in south central LA Midday Saturday as a pretty slow moving Strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane. Something to note on this run, there isn't much of a western impact area, but a rather large area of tropical storm force winds on the east side, extending all the way to MS/AL border, absolutely walloping New Orleans with precip totals

gfs_apcpn_seus_21.png

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GFS is crawling on 6 hr plots on a NNW track right up the Mississippi in central LA. This run is going to suck for New Orleans with respect to accum precip with strong backing low level southerly flow and convergence right off the Gulf over Lake Ponchartrain.

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

NWS New Orleans has updated its stage forecast to account for future TC impacts. Obviously this is fluid and could go up or down depending on how the official TC and precip forecast evolves.

 

 

 

 

 

what is that assuming? a moderate TS? Also I assume if it slows the south winds will dam up the water some for days....as the flooded river , plus any more rain falling, makes it way down stream...

I would consider reopening more gates on the  Bonnet Carre Spillway like right now.. I know they opened them for a second time last month but I think the plan was to slowly close gates as time went on until they were completely closed by mid-july.  

I read that all the fresh water from that was causing Algea and major problems on the LA and coast though

 

edit: they haven't started to close the gates yet on the Bonnet Carre Spillway Right now, 184 of the spillways 350 bays are open, 

 

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18z HWRF joins the UK Met with a major cane making LF over Lake Charles Saturday morning.

Note: HMON forecasting a strong TS landfalling in SE LA is a much more likely solution imo.

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GFS has been trending east with the precip shield past few runs. With the slow movement and question as how just how fast it can pop, AL and even W tip of FL still possible hit on the east side

rGVZ24k.gif

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just some info about the very lower MS river watershed  with regards to fresh water flooding:

There is no "watershed" between New Orleans and Baton Rouge...just basically the river channel boxed in by Levees..so heavy rain falling beetwen New Orleans and Baton Rouge won't have that much an affect.  Well unless like a foot falls or something in a short time

The only "watershed" in LA is around Baton Rouge and the county northwest.. I have witnessed the river rise a foot in Baton Rouge when heavy rains 6+ inches, falls just NW of the city( East parts of the city drain into the lake)

due to man made diversion: In eastern LA and  SE AR rain that falls west of the river does not make it into the MS river..until up by Pine Bluff via the AR river

the couple of counties in SW MS drain into the River...but its not until you get up to Vicksburg via the Yazoo river does the impact really start as much of western and Northern MS drain into it....

the first west rows of counties in TN drain into the River but too far East and It drains into the TN river basin and all the flood control

So basically the watershed is skinny and mostly on the east side of the river until Pine Bluff....This is why the big floods/rain events on the OH river have much more of an impact then if heavy rains falls more south.  The OH river is east-west the perfect shape for systems to train the whole river (since most precipitation moves west to east ) 

so basically the worst case for short term fresh water issues is if South to North moving feeder bands train just east of the river or the center moves over a similar location ..both possible 

of course any heavier rain up north later will cause the river to remain higher for the next system 

 

 

 

 

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with 250mb winds of 40 kts out of the north, 00z GFS seems to a decent amount  of shear at 72 hours 

the upper level high moves to far west 

but looks like a 980 on the LA coast after that

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6 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

LF estimated Morgan City 00z Saturday @ 980 MB

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_16.png

As JanetJanet998 noted, definite west shift. I would honestly favor the UK met/euro track given trends.

00z UKmet 951mb Ne Texas 

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 27.6N 88.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 36 27.7N 88.8W 1006 30
0000UTC 12.07.2019 48 27.7N 90.4W 998 38
1200UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.7N 92.3W 990 58
0000UTC 13.07.2019 72 27.8N 93.1W 977 68
1200UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.8N 94.2W 951 90
0000UTC 14.07.2019 96 30.0N 95.0W 962 59
1200UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.4N 96.1W 979 43
0000UTC 15.07.2019 120 32.9N 97.6W 986 31
1200UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.3N 99.1W 994 35
0000UTC 16.07.2019 144 35.8N 100.5W 999 31

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GFS now similar to the 18z Euro. Makes a pretty sharp turn NNE.

Western New Orleans metro gets 18-20" on this run.

 

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Just a note from the 8pm TWO

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and
the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves slowly
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical Storm,
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.  An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
tomorrow afternoon. In addition, this disturbance has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days, and interests in those areas
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.  For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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