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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Barry

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1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Probably getting a more true center with an eyewall developing noweyewall.thumb.PNG.db400fcb9a74fc973d812e0358cc5096.PNG

I agree, I see that on the NOAA radar site from SE LA.  I need the long-range radar site though to see the actual center, it is about 100 plus miles off the coast.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I agree, I see that on the NOAA radar site from SE LA.  I need the long-range radar site though to see the actual center, it is about 100 plus miles off the coast.

I think we have a good shot at having a hurricane when NHC punches through the developing eyewall within the hour. 

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2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I think we have a good shot at having a hurricane when NHC punches through the developing eyewall within the hour. 

The last vortex message from a little over a half hour ago had a peak SFMR of 61kts. 

There’s a lot going on tonight. It’s still intensifying imo per recon data and we’ve seen consistent and deep convection helping to organize the core a bit. There’s a lot of lightning in that convection. Not sure we have a nascent eyewall yet but I’m on mobile. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The last vortex message from a little over a half hour ago had a peak SFMR of 61kts. 

There’s a lot going on tonight. It’s still intensifying imo per recon data and we’ve seen consistent and deep convection helping to organize the core a bit. There’s a lot of lightning in that convection. Not sure we have a nascent eyewall yet but I’m on mobile. 

WxWatcher the lightning is a clear sign that Barry is intensifying.

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35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The last vortex message from a little over a half hour ago had a peak SFMR of 61kts. 

There’s a lot going on tonight. It’s still intensifying imo per recon data and we’ve seen consistent and deep convection helping to organize the core a bit. There’s a lot of lightning in that convection. Not sure we have a nascent eyewall yet but I’m on mobile. 

It has rocket fuel water to work with. It was always a question of wether it could get a core together. If and when it does it could put on a show.

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43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The last vortex message from a little over a half hour ago had a peak SFMR of 61kts. 

There’s a lot going on tonight. It’s still intensifying imo per recon data and we’ve seen consistent and deep convection helping to organize the core a bit. There’s a lot of lightning in that convection. Not sure we have a nascent eyewall yet but I’m on mobile. 

Looking at it now, we may have a SE eyewall and that's about it so far..

Edit: Also seems to be moving more west than N right now.

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Still have some boundary layer issues to the N/NW per SPC Meso Analysis.  Regardless of where the "center" makes landfall there's a ton of moisture hanging back to the S ready to be pumped in with PWATS of nearly 3 inches, in the 90 percentile for even this area.  If the heaviest initial precip can remain west and south of the river initially it would give NOLA a break (but points west will be inundated i.e. Baton Rouge).  But the forecast track is still right along the lower/mid MS watershed thats already stressed. May be talking about this thing still 7 days from now.

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new projected height for the MS river at NOLA MUCH lower

its falling now., 16.72 .,and now only has a peak of 17 ft.. I suspect the slightly more west track has an affect..as well as the fact that ESE winds back up the river more then south winds since there is some levee protection on the West Bank..so the surge is disconnected from the river..

.but they should have known that before they made the 20ft forecast..how can they be off by 3 feet for a storm forecast of around  the same strength? 

Forecast Data (Issued 07-13-2019 01:11:00 UTC):
|Date(UTC)|    |Stage|
07/13 06:00    16.70ft
07/13 12:00    16.50ft
07/13 18:00    16.70ft
07/14 00:00    16.90ft
07/14 06:00    17.00ft
07/14 12:00    17.00ft
07/14 18:00    17.00ft
07/15 00:00    17.00ft
07/15 06:00    17.00ft
07/15 12:00    17.10ft
07/15 18:00    17.00ft
07/16 00:00    17.00ft
07/16 06:00    17.00ft
07/16 12:00    17.00ft
07/16 18:00    17.00ft
07/17 00:00    16.90ft
07/17 06:00    16.90ft

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Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

The overall satellite presentation of Barry has improved since this
afternoon. The center is located closer to the main convective
mass and there has been some expansion of the cirrus outflow. There
has also been an increase in the convective banding over the eastern
and southeastern portions of the circulation. Both NOAA and Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft have been in the storm this
evening. The NOAA aircraft found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of
64 kt in the southeastern quadrant, which still supports an initial
intensity of 55 kt.

Barry has been able to strengthen over the past day or so despite
northerly shear and dry mid-level air. With the recent increase in
convection near the center and the expansion of the upper-level
outflow, it appears that the shear over the center has decreased.
As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for Barry to become a
hurricane before it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Although this
is slightly above the intensity guidance, most of the dynamical
models show some modest deepening before landfall. After the
center moves inland, steady weakening is expected and the system
is predicted to become a remnant low in about 72 hours.

Barry has been meandering over the past several hours, but the
longer term motion is 300/3 kt. The storm is expected to turn
northwestward overnight as a weakness develops in the subtropical
ridge that extends over the southeastern United States. This should
bring the center of the storm onshore along the south-central coast
of Louisiana on Saturday. By Saturday night or early Sunday, Barry
is forecast to turn northward around the western portion of the
aforementioned ridge. Barry or its remnants should recurve into
the mid-latitude westerlies by late Monday. Although the guidance
envelope has shifted slightly westward again this cycle, the NHC
track is virtually unchanged and is closest to the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models which lie along the eastern side
of the scope.

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Just out of curiosity, wouldn't it actually be worse for New Orleans if 15-20" of rain falls west of them near Baton Rouge or upriver vs. over the city? Wouldn't all that water collect and travel down the Miss. River into the city? Are there mechanisms in place to have the water diverted somehow? Looks horrendous for Baton Rouge either way, the river looks like it's been in serious flood stage there for weeks now. 

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Just out of curiosity, wouldn't it actually be worse for New Orleans if 15-20" of rain falls west of them near Baton Rouge or upriver vs. over the city? Wouldn't all that water collect and travel down the Miss. River into the city? Are there mechanisms in place to have the water diverted somehow? Looks horrendous for Baton Rouge either way, the river looks like it's been in serious flood stage there for weeks now. 

over the city by far

there is no watershed to drain into the river between Baton Rouge and NOLA ..anything that falls outside of the levees/channel runs off to other places...

at 16 ft the flow at NOLA is an amazing 1,250,000 cfs.... 

the river has crested from the surge. according to reports just in.....taking into the massive amounts of rainfall the next 48 hours the river is expected to rise to only 17.1 from the current 16.72

if you read a few pages back I share some deals about the watershed upstream to the OH river

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

over the city by far

there is no watershed to drain into the river between Baton Rouge and NOLA ..anything that falls outside of the levees/channel runs off to other places...

at 16 ft the flow at NOLA is an amazing 1,250,000 cfs.... 

 

 

OK. So I guess hopefully the west drift continues and New Orleans is spared the ridiculous convection over the east/south of the storm. But you never know where those feeder bands will set up and it'll just be horrendous for someone else. I wonder how much rain the pumps can keep up with? The 5-6" of rain in 2 hours they had yesterday was rough, but that would be rough anywhere. 

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still scratching my head how they can be 2-3 ft off and almost a day late...unless it was for the reasons I mentioned earlier (need a Katrina track to funnel east and SE winds into the east bank)

what if the levees are overtopped on the West Bank? (the levees are west of the towns on the river) That Parish evacuated everyone on the east bank and everyone on the West Bank south of a certain point....the West Bank is protected by levees from a SW  and south surge...but if they didn't expected those to be overtopped why did the evacuate? And if they overtop from the south water will move up river too...

 

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Just out of curiosity, wouldn't it actually be worse for New Orleans if 15-20" of rain falls west of them near Baton Rouge or upriver vs. over the city? Wouldn't all that water collect and travel down the Miss. River into the city? Are there mechanisms in place to have the water diverted somehow? Looks horrendous for Baton Rouge either way, the river looks like it's been in serious flood stage there for weeks now. 

I think the biggest concern 24-48 hours ago was this thing coming in at just the right angle to push surge up the river when it's been at its highest level in like 60 years or more.  Surge will inundate 10 fold faster than precip from the sky and there was no way the protections in place could handle that, the Corp even admitted it.  Between it not getting its act together as quickly as forecast a few days back and a farther west weaker potential landfall (they were talking possible low end Cat 2 a few days ago)  the surg potential at that time was something that the local NOLA flood controls would've been overwhelmed.  But I do agree, the system is already stressed and as this thing makes landfall and moves up the watershed the system isn't going to get a break, question is if it can handle this thing.  If you harbor back to Harvey a similar situation was in place.  Anomalous precip into the Houston watershed prior then came along a crazy ass storm that missed them but came back to haunt them.  JanetJanet has been all over the anomalous flooding along the MS and it's tribs all the way up to MN this year.  Even if they escape the surge the future track of this storm is going to continue to stress the MS system so it won't get a break.  If something else brews, and we're still in prime GOM homebrew time, it could get scary.  The entire lower MS watershed is very vulnerable right now, probably more vulnerable then it has been in a hundred years.

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5 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

still scratching my head how they can be 2-3 ft off and almost a day late...unless it was for the reasons I mentioned earlier (need a Katrina track to funnel east and see winds into the east bank)

 

 

Honestly I just don't think they freakin' know, models be damned.  This is unprecedented in the modern era.

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I think the biggest concern 24-48 hours ago was this thing coming in at just the right angle to push surge up the river when it's been at its highest level in like 60 years or more.  Surge will inundate 10 fold faster than precip from the sky and there was no way the protections in place could handle that, the Corp even admitted it.  Between it not getting its act together as quickly as forecast a few days back and a farther west weaker potential landfall (they were talking possible low end Cat 2 a few days ago)  the surg potential at that time was something that the local NOLA flood controls would've been overwhelmed.  But I do agree, the system is already stressed and as this thing makes landfall and moves up the watershed the system isn't going to get a break, question is if it can handle this thing.  If you harbor back to Harvey a similar situation was in place.  Anomalous precip into the Houston watershed prior then came along a crazy ass storm that missed them but came back to haunt them.  JanetJanet has been all over the anomalous flooding along the MS and it's tribs all the way up to MN this year.  Even if they escape the surge the future track of this storm is going to continue to stress the MS system so it won't get a break.  If something else brews, and we're still in prime GOM homebrew time, it could get scary.  The entire lower MS watershed is very vulnerable right now, probably more vulnerable then it has been in a hundred years.

Yeah, scary indeed. This will keep the river very high for probably weeks longer and opens the door for a similar system to come along later this summer and cause havoc. I remember the New Orleans "flood bowl" maps I saw have the Miss. River the highest above sea level, above even the French Quarter and would cause maybe the worst problems if those levees ever failed. Lake Pont. was still low enough that the waters didn't reach the highest parts of town (but obviously still a worst case scenario in Katrina). Hopefully this is a bullet they dodge.

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5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

ACTF calling this Hurricane Barry now.

What is ACTF?

I found it, Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF). Never mind. :)

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Barry looks inland to me.  So much media drama for a crappy looking TS.  On the other hand the flooding has yet to come so that could become a bigger  story.  The media has really played this one up.  I hate when that happens as it causes complacency when the big boys come knockin...

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Barry is a mess.  The surface circulation has decoupled from the offshore blob of convection.  The center is drifting westward, just inland, and it's possible it could wobble back south over water again.  Even the offshore blob has weakened somewhat in recent hours.  Plenty of rain will still get pulled up over LA, though, eventually.

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3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Barry looks inland to me.  So much media drama for a crappy looking TS.  On the other hand the flooding has yet to come so that could become a bigger  story.  The media has really played this one up.  I hate when that happens as it causes complacency when the big boys come knockin...

I just love people calling bust when the event hasn't even started yet.

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1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said:

ACTF calling this Hurricane Barry now.

Would love to see the justification by NHC for calling this a hurricane now, other than to verify the Hurricane Warning. 

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7 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Would love to see the justification by NHC for calling this a hurricane now, other than to verify the Hurricane Warning. 

Between 11-12Z, the National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 62 kt and a peak
gust of 74 kt at an elevation of about 10 m.  Doppler radar winds
from the Slidell WSR-88D suggested surface winds of 60-65 kt as
well.  In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported SFMR wind estimates of 60-63 kt near Eugene Island, and
850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt. Based on these data and the
possibility that the strongest winds were not sampled, it is
estimated that Barry became a hurricane around 11-12Z despite its
less than classical appearance in satellite imagery
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