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George BM

July Discobs 2019

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

4”/hr rain rate, but it doesn’t add up when it only lasts a minute or two.  Lightning show is good.  No wind.

Yeah, you got the fatter part of the line.  Looks like a swath of 0.5”+ between Mattie and I, pointed in your direction.

if you want some model fun, go check out the end of the 00z HRRR.  Completely rakes FFX and Loudoun tomorrow night.

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6 minutes ago, mattie g said:

And about a minute of rain followed by maybe another 30 seconds.

But the kids certainly heard the thunder because wife and I are both in different rooms helping them get back to sleep. Argh!!!!

My daughter fell asleep during the fireworks last night (edit-Thursday, time gets away from me).  She is the true “sleep through a freight train” kid.  Other faults, but at least we got that going for us.

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Yeah, you got the fatter part of the line.  Looks like a swath of 0.5”+ between Mattie and I, pointed in your direction.
if you want some model fun, go check out the end of the 00z HRRR.  Completely rakes FFX and Loudoun tomorrow night.


Man, you’ve been getting screwed. Past couple of storms have been some of the more energetic ones I’ve seen in awhile. Lots of good T&L lately.

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29 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

My daughter fell asleep during the fireworks last night (edit-Thursday, time gets away from me).  She is the true “sleep through a freight train” kid.  Other faults, but at least we got that going for us.

Our younger one will generally sleep through noise, but won’t go down while things are happening. Tonight was a different story though.

Annoyed that we just missed on a ton of good stuff this evening. Even the little tail-end cell that popped up as the big one rolled across the Potomac missed us by a couple miles.

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44 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, you got the fatter part of the line.  Looks like a swath of 0.5”+ between Mattie and I, pointed in your direction.

if you want some model fun, go check out the end of the 00z HRRR.  Completely rakes FFX and Loudoun tomorrow night.

Check out the 00z NAM... pretty much does the same 

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Check out the 00z NAM... pretty much does the same 

00z GFS has same idea... but a lil further to the NE and a lil less QPF

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The cluster of storms SE of Pittsburgh might be the kick for today's activity.

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8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA is running only 1.5” of precip behind last year.  Of course, July is when last year started going supernova.

Wonder if this year follows the same pattern,  or whether we make a change going forward to a hotter regime and drier.  drier = hotter 

Some models indicate mid month a supportive pattern of hotter weather. Yet, so far at least, even a dry periods have reversed going back to wet. Some have missed the rainfall but certainly it has been more wet than not. 

Summer blocking supports heat further into the season so whether the current blocking continues might have a say.   

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https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lwx&wwa=flash flood watch

 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1156 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019


DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016-503>506-VAZ031-050>057-501-502-
505-506-WVZ052-053-080000-
/O.EXB.KLWX.FF.A.0008.190707T2200Z-190708T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-
Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Charles-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Clarke-Orange-
Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick,
Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown,
Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton,
College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie,
Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton,
St. Charles, Waldorf, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville,
Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City,
Berryville, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas,
Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale,
Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria,
Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton,
Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Martinsburg,
Charles Town, and Shepherdstown
1156 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded
the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of Maryland, The
  District of Columbia, Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia,
  including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel,
  Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast
  Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore,
  Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges,
  Southern Baltimore, and Washington. The District of Columbia.
  In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Clarke,
  Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George, Northern
  Fauquier, Orange, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park,
  Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Western
  Loudoun. In panhandle West Virginia, Berkeley and Jefferson.

* From 6 PM EDT this evening through late tonight

* Slow moving showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight.
  Torrential rainfall may lead to totals exceeding 2 inches in a
  short period of time. This may cause flash flooding of small
  streams and other poor drainage urban areas.
 

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Tons of whiffs for me yesterday. I seem to get more rain on days they call for less rain or no rain

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33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

A lot of stationary cells firing

Looks like another day of winners and losers.

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Nams are pretty bullish for central Md late tonight and tomorrow morning.  A lot of 2-4" amounts .

3k has a nice positioned 1008 mini low in extreme southern Md tomorrow around 10z - 12z .Nice convection north and west of it 

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nams are pretty bullish for central Md late tonight and tomorrow morning.  A lot of 2-4" amounts .

3k has a nice positioned 1008 mini low in extreme southern Md tomorrow around 10z - 12z .Nice convection north and west of it 

HRRR is kinda uppity with rain too.  My garden could use it.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

HRRR is kinda uppity with rain too.  My garden could use it.

Looks like every piece of guidance I see is on board lol.

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Slow movers over CMD starting to expand and merge with that complex in PA drifting SE. Hoping that convergence drifts west. Somebody is going to soaked...

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Hrrr is definitely looking better for late tonight. I just applied some calcium rich top dressing on my tomato, cucumber, zucchini and squash plants. I hope this soaker takes shape. My veggies will love it.

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I couldn't take it anymore. My yard has missed every storm in every possible direction, failing in every possible way over the last week. That split/collapse last night with a solid line on my doorstep(and a warning) was pathetic and the last straw. Not a drop. I had to get away and forget about my dried out, burning yard. I am in Vermont now and working my way to NH. Absolutely gorgeous here. I will be at Mt Washington on Wed probably. Looks like mid 50s and ofc, very windy. 

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NW Carroll and Adam's County getting a good soaking.

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I couldn't take it anymore. My yard has missed every storm in every possible direction, failing in every possible way over the last week. That split/collapse last night with a solid line on my doorstep(and a warning) was pathetic and the last straw. Not a drop. I had to get away and forget about my dried out, burning yard. I am in Vermont now and working my way to NH. Absolutely gorgeous here. I will be at Mt Washington on Wed probably. Looks like mid 50s and ofc, very windy. 

Sometimes we just have to throw up our hands and chase excitement elsewhere. Safe travels. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sometimes we just have to throw up our hands and chase excitement elsewhere. Safe travels. 

We both know that story, and have had some great times chasing elsewhere.

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I could so live up here. So many great and unique quaint towns. In Manchester currently. Heading to Killington tomorrow and then really looking forward to Woodstock. Staying there tomorrow night. Then off to NH. 50-50 whether I do auto road or the cog. The cog is so unique, but pricey.. but then I love an adventurous mountain drive.

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