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George BM

July Discobs 2019

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Someone is going to get a gully washer today.  Decent CAPE, low shear and high PWATs.  Also the convective temp is only 89° per the 12z sounding from IAD.

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Pretty good setup for torrential pulsers, esp just west/along and east of the bay where forcing along a low level boundary looks to get established.

Most Mesos slam areas just to my SW with not much in my yard lol. Heads up Easton to Cambridge.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

New hrrrrr bullseyes MBY. I’m hugging. Pwats are 2”+. Whomever gets underneath a cell is gonna get dumped on.

I’m not trying to steal your rain, but I need it  so hopefully there’s enough to go around. In lieu of a rain dance, I’m brewing today which should being on the storms.

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Meso Precip Disco just issued, should take 15-20 min to appear:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=530&yr=2019

EDIT:  :o worth a read

Quote
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0530
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1140 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2019

Areas affected...Interstate 95 corridor including northern VA,
Washington DC, MD, southeast PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041540Z - 042100Z

Summary...Rapidly developing but slow moving thunderstorms will
produce torrential rain this afternoon. Rainfall rates may exceed
2"/hr, during which the slow motion will allow for 1-3" of
rainfall, locally higher. This could produce flash flooding,
especially across the urban corridor where FFG is lower.

Discussion...Convection is blossoming early this morning in a
highly favorable environment ahead of a weak shortwave/MCV evident
on GOES-16 WV imagery entering West Virginia. 12Z U/A soundings
east of the Appalachians analyzed PWAT over 2 inches at most
locations south of PA, and the 2.02" observed at IAD is a daily
record. RAP forecasts suggests PWAT may climb as high as 2.25
inches across the discussion area this afternoon, which would not
only be a daily record, but approach July monthly highs. This
anomalous moisture is combining with 15Z RAP Analyzed MUCape
already exceeding 3000 J/kg, producing a thermodynamic environment
that is highly favorable for excessive rainfall.

Both satellite and regional radar show thunderstorms developing
quickly in response to the surface heating and mid-level lapse
rates of 6-7 C/km. Limited shear will inhibit storm organization
this afternoon, leaving pulse convection as the expected mode.
These storms will move very slowly in a weakly forced environment
however, and RAP Corfidi vectors fall to less than 5 kts. This
suggests nearly stationary storms with storm mergers and,
eventually, boundary collisions from outflow driving renewed
thunderstorm development. This makes it difficult to discern
exactly where the heaviest rainfall will occur as storms will
remain scattered in nature, and this is echoed by recent HRRR and
ARW guidance showing spotty heavy rain signatures over 3".
However, rainfall rates of 2"/hr on top of the relatively lowered
FFG of the urban corridor will support a flash flood risk until
the atmosphere overturns later this afternoon.

HREF 3-hr exceedance probabilities are modest, and 7-day rainfall
departures are well below normal, but these types of rain rates
could support flash flooding, especially where storms linger,
mergers occur to briefly enhance rain rates, or across the
impervious urban areas.

Weiss

 

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13 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Matter what time of a year a 990s low off the Carolina coast catches my weenie attention.:D  Gfs has been hinting at this time frame day 6-7 for a couple days . Eps actually has some minor interest . H5 says to me most likely a southern mid Atlantic storm and ene from there if it materializes but worth watching.  Warm water so something tropical is certainly possible.  Where's Wxwatcher 

Edit..

Looks like Wxwatcher mentioned this timeframe in the tropical thread :)

 

Screenshot_20190703-215425_Chrome.jpg

At least maybe get some better swells down the road, it has been rather lame wave-wise along the lower Southern NJ coastline .  Early next week has some potential possibly. But on a positive note, ocean temps near the surf zone have warmed the last few days.    

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Anyone under the northern Montgomery county cell

No, but it looks decent.  One just popped over Reisterstown.  The good news for fireworks and outdoor lovers is that an early kick off could throw a bunch of outflow boundaries with rain cooled air everywhere so from like 4 or 5 pm onward we're good.

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LOVE these dews. I'm hoping we get some 80+ later this month. 

Did a quick search and what I'd give to be in Savannah right now. 95/75 HI 108. 

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11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No, but it looks decent.  One just popped over Reisterstown.  The good news for fireworks and outdoor lovers is that an early kick off could throw a bunch of outflow boundaries with rain cooled air everywhere so from like 4 or 5 pm onward we're good.

Eastern Howard blowing up as well 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Eastern Howard blowing up as well 

Deluge

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1 minute ago, Subtropics said:

LOVE these dews. I'm hoping we get some 80+ later this month. 

Did a quick search and what I'd give to be in Savannah right now. 95/75 HI 108. 

Had the convection held off another couple of hours it would've been heat advisory territory for the I-95 counties.

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Deluge

Almost 4”/hr rain rates according to the nearby PWS. First thunder just now also.

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5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Ellicott City has to be nervous on a day like today. 

The odds of a 1000 year flood 3 years so close together are.... 1/1000. Past events have no influence on odds of a particular event! Haha 

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5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Ellicott City has to be nervous on a day like today. 

This is exactly the kind of setup that could pose a localized massive lollie ..no doubt

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Getting pop up storms down on the Delmarva 

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I just went to Giant one mile from my house (see arrow) to pick up a few things.  Heard thunder so checked Radarscope and saw the northern MontCo pop-up.  It was still filtered sun and dry at the store.  I get almost home and there's a curtain of mod/hvy, large-drop rain just sitting stationary right about the entrance of the neighborhood.  Pretty good dose of rain -- maybe a half inch - while places 1 mile away got nothing.

image.png.d41759568e0aa2c19aa71ded60db62a3.png

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8 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

The odds of a 1000 year flood 3 years so close together are.... 1/1000. Past events have no influence on odds of a particular event! Haha 

I didn't say they did...

Look at the radar - it's not unrealistic to say that it's possible for Ellicott City to get stuck under training storms or stationary storms. A few hours of that would easily cause major flooding issues for them. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Big outflow on that Frederick county cell.

Yup.  Looks like the Reisterstown storm pushed a boundary downs towards Ellicott City and that fired a bunch of stuff up.  Constant rolling thunder to my south.  The radar seems to be a bit overdoing things though at least at my location.  I was under 50dbz+ for three scans and it's not even wet under the cards or trees.  

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