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George BM

July Discobs 2019

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Hard to tell with the rounding, but DCA is something like 87/76 right now on a river wind.  IAD appears to have ticked up to 91 already.

My station is 92/79 for a 108 HI.

IAD now 93F as of 11:02am edt, Wednesday, July 17, 2019

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Some crazy dew points out there at the present time, searching around and found nearby Annapolis at a very nasty  79 dew point,  Ugh !  

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

Some crazy dew points out there at the present time, searching around and found nearby Annapolis at a very nasty  79 dew point,  Ugh !  

Saw a PWS at 95/89/135 a couple mins ago. Overinflated no doubt but its fun to see those crazy numbers.

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12z RAOB from IAD has a convective temp of 93°.  Not sure we get above 95 degrees outside the urban centers.  It would be interesting to see how many days IAD, BWI and DCA average with a high above 95 and how we compare so far this year.  

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

Saw a PWS at 95/89/135 a couple mins ago. Overinflated no doubt but its fun to see those crazy numbers.

Friday will feel unreal......in a bad way .....  although maybe Saturday will be the worse day, looking for a low Friday night only in the low 80's maybe.  

 

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17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z RAOB from IAD has a convective temp of 93°.  Not sure we get above 95 degrees outside the urban centers.  It would be interesting to see how many days IAD, BWI and DCA average with a high above 95 and how we compare so far this year.  

Considering the 11am temp at IAD was 90 with winds from the S... I am pretty sure we breach ConvT with ease

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Considering the 11am temp at IAD was 90 with winds from the S... I am pretty sure we breach ConvT with ease

Yup.  Already have a small CU field in Gaithersburg.

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While I do think we'll reach the convective temp, I'm not sure how relevant that is today.    The hi-res guidance shows a bunch of storms firing out over the terrain to our west, driven by local circulations and enhanced by the approaching shortwave.     While I'd like to see the HRRR as aggressive as the NAM, I feel pretty good about storm chances today, especially for those along and north of 66 in VA and 50 in MD on the west side of the bay.

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Just now, high risk said:

While I do think we'll reach the convective temp, I'm not sure how relevant that is today.    The hi-res guidance shows a bunch of storms firing out over the terrain to our west, driven by local circulations and enhanced by the approaching shortwave.     While I'd like to see the HRRR as aggressive as the NAM, I feel pretty good about storm chances today, especially for those along and north of 66 in VA and 50 in MD on the west side of the bay.

Could be a few isolated severe storms as well with damaging wind gusts... we are MRGL outlooked by SPC today

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10 minutes ago, yoda said:

Could be a few isolated severe storms as well with damaging wind gusts... we are MRGL outlooked by SPC today

     I have no disagreement with the MRGL outlook.    The soundings certainly support at least some downburst potential.    If the NAM nest is correct with the amount of organization and resulting strong cold pool, we'd require a SLGT, but that simulation may be overdone.

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15 minutes ago, high risk said:

While I do think we'll reach the convective temp, I'm not sure how relevant that is today.    The hi-res guidance shows a bunch of storms firing out over the terrain to our west, driven by local circulations and enhanced by the approaching shortwave.     While I'd like to see the HRRR as aggressive as the NAM, I feel pretty good about storm chances today, especially for those along and north of 66 in VA and 50 in MD on the west side of the bay.

idk but tonight kinda has the last Thursday vibe to me. Hot and steamy with an embedded shortwave coming in from the mountains.

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BWI and IAD are both 94... breaching ConvT... could probably see them hit 97/98 today

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I’ve never felt like my weather station has been inaccurate. Sometimes I feel like the dew pt can be a few degree too high but not all of the time. I question this reading a little just due to the obs near the metros. Which are usually warmer than me. But, here is the current obs at home.

95/77/111

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HI of 98° in Westminster...you know it's getting warm when the exurbs are pushing 100° at noon.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z RAOB from IAD has a convective temp of 93°.  Not sure we get above 95 degrees outside the urban centers.  It would be interesting to see how many days IAD, BWI and DCA average with a high above 95 and how we compare so far this year.  

Looks like IAD/BWI/EZF should all reach 95 next hour... Stafford already reached... MD Science Center/College Park already reached

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Just now, yoda said:

Looks like IAD/BWI should reach 95 next hour... EZF and Stafford already reached... BWI Science center already reached

Good.  I'd like to see us roast.  It's what summer should do.

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Yep, def pretty soupy here in Charm City, 95.5 IMBY at present. 

Sterling posted some temp records for the region in their morning AFD...

.CLIMATE...
As of 4:40 this morning, the temperature at Washington Dulles
International Airport (IAD) had so far only dropped to 77
degrees. The record daily warm low temperature for July 17th is
75 degrees, set back in 1988.

The record daily warm low temperature for IAD for July 18th is
74 degrees, set in 2005 and 1969.

As a reference, here are the warm temperature records for
Friday through this weekend:

Record Daily High Temperatures
        Jul 19       Jul 20       Jul 21
DCA   102 (1930)   106 (1930)   104 (1926)
BWI   103 (1930)   102 (1930)   104 (1930)
IAD    98 (1977)   101 (1980)   101 (1991)

Record Daily Warm Low Temperatures
        Jul 19       Jul 20       Jul 21
DCA    81 (1930)    82 (2015)    82 (1987)
BWI    80 (1942)    80 (1930)    83 (1930)
IAD    77 (2013)    75 (2015)    77 (1987)

Highest July Temperatures
        Highest Max       Warmest Low
DCA   106 (7/20/1930)   84 (7/24/2011, 7/23/2011, 7/16/1983)
BWI   107 (7/10/1936)   83 (7/21/1930)
IAD   105 (7/22/2011)   78 (7/24/2010, 7/8/2010)

All-time Highest Temperatures
        Highest Max                 Warmest Low
DCA   106 (7/20/1930, 8/6/1918)   84 (7/24/2011, 7/23/2011, 7/16/1983)
BWI   107 (7/10/1936)             83 (8/5/1930, 7/21/1930, 6/6/1925)
IAD   105 (7/22/2011)             79 (8/8/2007)
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92/73 at home. would kind of like storms to miss today, as i have softball later. and despite the heat, i do want to play 

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