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George BM

July Discobs 2019

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

The dews don't look oppressive, so if we get the right downslope/mixing combo we might be able to do it.  I didn't go to 100 in the summer contest precisely because of the wet conditions though, and I think LWS is right to keep the forecast in the upper 90s.

From this afternoon's LWX AFD about Friday and Saturday heat and HI:

In the wake of this troughing, ridging will build Friday and
Saturday. The heat will likely be most intense during these two
days, with high temperatures well into the 90s, and dew points near
or above 70. WPC probabilistic heat index guidance indicates a
likelihood of Heat Advisory criteria (100 west/105 east) being met
across much of the area. Saturday may have the highest heat indices,
with the same guidance showing a risk of Excessive Heat Warning
criteria (105 west/110 east).

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Need to watch this for 100° in DCA/IAD/BWI.  We need widespread +25° at 850 to really maximize our potential.

 

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Feels quite pleasant outside. 84/64 

Sitting out on the deck sipping some Knob Creek on the rocks. Might as well enjoy it before the legit oppressive heat and high dews build in beginning tomorrow.

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Mount Holly's take on the heat for Friday into the weekend-

Friday through Sunday...The heat is on and will continue through the weekend. Surface high pressure will situate itself over the western Atlantic with a surface trough across the eastern seaboard. In the mid and upper levels, we will see a large ridge spread across the Mid-Atlantic, which will help in facilitating an increasingly hot airmass through the weekend. While the numbers may vary across the models, the 850mb temperatures look to rise around 22-23C each day, which translates to upper 90s to around 100 degrees at the surface, especially for Friday and Saturday. With dew points in the mid to upper 70s, it will feel oppressive and it is looking increasingly likely that heat headlines will be needed for this period. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 70s to around 80, especially through the urban corridor, providing no relief from the heat. The heat starts to break a bit for Sunday as the upper/mid ridge starts to shift towards the east but both the GFS and ECMWF hold onto the higher 850mb values through Sunday so anticipate that the excessive heat will continue through the end of the weekend.

 

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Let's see if I can make a run at an 80 degree low or higher Sat and Sun. That would be a big achievement for the heavily rural area here. Something I haven't seen since August 13, 2016.

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Well that was interesting... poured for about three minutes just now... checked radar, saw nothing... zoomed in and there is a tiny shower right over me that popped up... another one is right over La Plata

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Euro and Gfs both showing a halt to the 90s and 100s around here by as soon as  Monday with both depicting northwest flow kicking in most of next week .

Unless u like crushing heat and humidity :ph34r:

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I myself am ready for this installment of Big Heat. After this I’ll be ready for the quiet dog days of summer as I prepare for what should be an active peak of hurricane season and the start of football.

giphy.gif?cid=19f5b51a5d2ddaf14168354959

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From the morning HWO for the areas along the I95 corridor (metro areas) and into SE MD:

Quote
Heat indices around 105 degrees are possible Wednesday and
Thursday during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Increasing heat and tropical moisture may result in thunderstorms
capable of producing a few damaging wind gusts or isolated
instances of flooding Wednesday and Thursday.

Dangerous heat and humidity are likely Friday through Sunday
across the entire area. Heat indices of 110 to 115 degrees are
possible during the afternoon and evening hours each day, and heat
indices may hold in the 80s and 90s at night. If the prolonged
heat and humidity is realized, it will become a significant threat
to anyone exposed to the heat for an extended period of time.

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Updated morning AFD from LWX mentions perhaps a few days over 100 degrees as well

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dangerous heat is becoming increasingly likely Friday through
this weekend.

850/925 hPa temps of 25/30 C respectively are expected Friday
through the weekend. Full mixing would result in surface
temperatures exceeding 100 degrees F. Given uncertainties in
just how much we mix, not willing to go quite that high this far
out in the forecast, but the potential is there for multiple
days near or exceeding 100. This combined with high humidity
will likely result in dangerous heat, with heat index values of
105 to 115 well within the realm of possibility.

Given the fact that high heat and humidity will likely occur
for multiple days in a row, this compounds the danger of
excessive heat. Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat for
tips to beat the heat.

A rather strong trough and associated surface cold front
approaches early next week, and when it collides with the heat
and humidity in place, it seems possible that strong
thunderstorms may result.

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3knam pops a mini 1009 low in central Md tomorrow afternoon.  Looks pretty vigorous looking at vorticity too. Some areas might get multiple rounds I'd think if something like this verifies.  I guess northern areas would have best shot verbatim up into se Pa .Something to watch . Maby Barry isn't dead lol.

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23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

3knam pops a mini 1009 low in central Md tomorrow afternoon.  Looks pretty vigorous looking at vorticity too. Some areas might get multiple rounds I'd think if something like this verifies.  I guess northern areas would have best shot verbatim up into se Pa .Something to watch . Maby Barry isn't dead lol.

Doubt the NAMMY gets it right but leftovers will interact with that boundary. Barry has overachieved a bit with rainfall in parts of the south in its post tropical life.

Remnants :wub: 

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GFS is struggling with the urban heat island.  Significant difference between DCA and IAD.

The Euro- I don’t know.

 

Edit - Saturday afternoon.  Euro is 105ish, all the other globals are 98-101.

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

GFS is struggling with the urban heat island.  Significant difference between DCA and IAD.

The Euro- I don’t know.

 

Edit - Saturday afternoon.  Euro is 105ish, all the other globals are 98-101.

you realize what you are saying?  Whats the difference between 100 or 105 when your flesh is sizzling and crackling like frying up chicharrones?

Image result for moleman on fire gif

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14:00 on 7/16/19:

Baltimore Inner Harbor (KDMH): 97/72

Stafford, VA (KRMN): 99/72

Fredericksburg, VA (KEZF): 95/73

RMN and EZF are both reporting full sun and have west or southwest winds, while we have some filtered high clouds so the higher temps aren't unbelievable, IMO.

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57 minutes ago, H2O said:

you realize what you are saying?  Whats the difference between 100 or 105 when your flesh is sizzling and crackling like frying up chicharrones?

Image result for moleman on fire gif

Excellent 

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23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

14:00 on 7/16/19:

Baltimore Inner Harbor (KDMH): 97/72

Stafford, VA (KRMN): 99/72

Fredericksburg, VA (KEZF): 95/73

RMN and EZF are both reporting full sun and have west or southwest winds, while we have some filtered high clouds so the higher temps aren't unbelievable, IMO.

Stafford airport recorded a dewpoint of 82 degrees around 10 AM.

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7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Stafford airport recorded a dewpoint of 82 degrees around 10 AM.

Huh, well then it's likely suspect.  

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Huh, well then it's likely suspect.  

Sometimes during the summer when the sun comes up strong, the rapid rise in temperature can cause the dewpoint to rise fast before falling back down.

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

Sometimes during the summer when the sun comes up strong, the rapid rise in temperature can cause the dewpoint to rise fast before falling back down.

True, also it's not terrible far from the Potomac River.  The Td is right in line with surrounding sites and EZF is hot too which is why I initially didn't discount the reading.  

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I see AKQ and PHL have issued HA's for tomorrow for pretty much all of their zones... wonder if LWX will issue one along the I95 corridor/metro areas tomorrow morning

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26 minutes ago, yoda said:

I see AKQ and PHL have issued HA's for tomorrow for pretty much all of their zones... wonder if LWX will issue one along the I95 corridor/metro areas tomorrow morning

Forecast high for for tomorrow here was 93 this morning, now its 96. Dews expected to be about the same. HA or not, its gonna be hot. 

Forecast high for Sat is 99 here now. Pretty confident that will bust low. I don't think I have seen a high in my yard exceeding 97 since I have lived here. No urbanization whatsoever. Just farms and trees. Love to see 100 just for the hell of it.

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35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

88/75 currently.  

88/73 here.

I would love to see 100/80 Fri and or Sat lol. I always bust low here with these Atlantic heat ridge setups. The wildcard is the remnant tropical air mass getting injected from Barry.

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