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July Discobs 2019


George BM
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Just now, mappy said:

well shit. that's a little too close for comfort at home. 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
339 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

MDC005-013-222000-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-190722T2000Z/
Carroll MD-Baltimore MD-
339 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL CARROLL AND NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTIES...

At 338 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Reese, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying
         debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter.
         Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile
         homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely.
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4 minutes ago, biodhokie said:

Welp. Behind this it seems like the HRRR/NAM was correct. Some people got some excitement but others have to live vicariously.

I'm impressed at how well the meso models have handled this so far.  The initial batch timing and location is pretty good.  The rest of us should be looking out for later this afternoon into the evening.

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Tornado Warning North Central Baltimore County and NW Harford County in MD until 430pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
352 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Harford County in northern Maryland...
  North central Baltimore County in northern Maryland...

* Until 430 PM EDT.

* At 352 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 9 miles west of Jarrettsville, or 9 miles north of
  Cockeysville, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  northwestern Harford and north central Baltimore Counties,
  including the following locations... Cardiff, Norrisville, Parkton,
  Hereford, Pylesville, Monkton and Whiteford.
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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z 3km NAM says wait till 22z and on for most of us... 01z is kinda hilarious though, its clear its some kind of error but still

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019072218&fh=11

Check out hours 6 to 8

And HRRR basically says "what rain?" during those hours.

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Safe here. Daycare had the kids sheltered in place when I went to pick up my kid, so that was great to see.

lots of rumbles if thunder here still, power went out for a little bit, lots of small tree debris down all over and some road flooding. 1.15" rain so far today. 

 

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4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Warned storm headed right for @EastCoast NPZ.  The activity just west of I-81 is about to enter the more unstable airmass and cross over some surface convergence as highlighted on the SPC meso analysis page.  We will probably know in the next hour if the NAM/HRRR is right or on underestimating things...hopefully the latter.

I'm in Carolina,  but the wife said it was just heavy rain, not too much wind.  Nearby PWS shows almost 1".  Very nice 3-day total imby, close to 2.25".

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