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July Discobs 2019


George BM
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Just now, MN Transplant said:

That 97 was probably a 96 (see link).

I don’t think we are going to hit 100 today, but the HRRR does give us a later day high (4-5pm), so there is time.  There is a scattered cu field.

 

Yea it's almost impossible to hit 100+ with sub 30 degree air at 850 and clouds.

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea it's almost impossible to hit 100+ with sub 30 degree air at 850 and clouds.

I have to think that the global models had trouble with the pre-existing soil moisture (the euro was awful).  The NAM has been pretty good on temps.  This was always a borderline case, and the DPs in the mid-upper 70s do not help the cause.  Sometimes we can pull off a 2011 where is is super hot and super humid, but that requires an historic airmass which this is not.  

Still, the Heat Index is no joke.

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Looks like 97s across the board for highs so far, including my station.  See if we can eek out another degree or two.  Need a W wind off of Arlington for DCA.

Yea the weird thing about DCA is that if it switches west then it can spike like 5 degrees in minutes.  Its such a terrible site for official obs though.  Wish it was somewhere on the mall.

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Ian brings up the point that the day of the frontal passage can sometimes surprise to the upside.  I can imagine the lows tonight will be disgusting.  So, if we can avoid too much cloud cover we’ll be tracking tomorrow also.

Generally like big heat to peak late here it is often cumulative esp at a place like DCA. But tomorrow does seem it should be no worse than today as far as sky cover.. for now. Had a suspicion 100 would be harder to come by than it looked from the data but then saw 24-25C 850s on the Euro yesterday and kinda sorta bit, tho leaned lower than my first range. 

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42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

92/79 . All about the dews.

Pretty much. Given the set up, I thought it would be a challenge to get readings of 100+ even in the cities. I think I predicted 97-98 for DC-PHI.

I always take the under for my location- it is the antithesis of an UHI lol. Behaving exactly as expected in my yard. I will max out at 96 today, maybe. Tomorrow has a shot at being a bit hotter over this way, as I dont think clouds become a factor until late.

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looking like a healthy chance at some widespread gully washers Monday-Tues 

Day 3 slight for excessive rain 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=3

Disco sounds bullish...moderate risk likely to be implemented by sounds with multiple rounds in areas 

Thank you for your post. Lot's going on and need some future guidance for next week.

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