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July Discobs 2019


George BM
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7 hours ago, yoda said:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
322 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

VAZ028-030-181530-
/O.EXB.KLWX.EH.A.0002.190719T1400Z-190722T0200Z/
Frederick VA-Warren-
Including the cities of Winchester and Front Royal
322 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued an Excessive Heat Watch, which is in effect from Friday
morning through Sunday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Potentially 105 to 110 degrees each
  afternoon. Heat indices will likely remain around 80 each
  night, greatly increasing the risk for heat related illnesses.

* IMPACTS...Dangerously high temperatures and humidity could
  quickly cause heat stress or heat stroke to those outside or
  without access to air conditioning.

They went with a Heat Advisory tomorrow and an Excessive Heat Watch Saturday and Sunday.

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Second day in a row of booming/cracking thunder, with no rain(well my rain gauge did somehow record 0.02" yesterday). Have had at least 3 other "events" similar to this, this month. I feel like I am in the desert SW or something with all the T & L and virtually no rain.

 

eta- A minor miracle apparently has produced a 5 min downpour, resulting in 0.15" of rain here. Shocking.

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The rare excessive heat warning in effect here. Not too common as I am in farm country pretty far removed from the urban corridor. Forecast high of 100 for Sat with HI of 114. I will take the under, as it rarely gets that hot here. I will predict 97-98, with a HI of maybe 108.  Would be cool to hit 101/115, but it historically has not ended up as extreme as forecast here.

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Steamy morning.

Looks like Sunday might be the hottest day now. Forecast high is 98 for Sat and 100 for Sun here. Again I will take the under. Gonna be super oppressive either way.

Looking forward to early next week. Impressive advertised h5 trough digging in over the MA. Hopefully the front brings some decent rain. Looks slow moving with possibly multiple waves moving along it. High of 83 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yesss.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Steamy morning.

Looks like Sunday might be the hottest day now. Forecast high is 98 for Sat and 100 for Sun here. Again I will take the under. Gonna be super oppressive either way.

Looking forward to early next week. Impressive advertised h5 trough digging in over the MA. Hopefully the front brings some decent rain. Looks slow moving with possibly multiple waves moving along it. High of 83 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yesss.

Yesss  is right,  that airmass change looks great ! 

Hope you are right regarding the rainfall.

Seems we are in line for rainfall as we exit the heat, but the WPC trimmed down a bit on rainfall in our region for later Sunday through Monday night.  

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7 minutes ago, frd said:

Yesss  is right,  that airmass change looks great ! 

Hope you are right regarding the rainfall.

Seems we are in line for rainfall as we exit the heat, but the WPC trimmed down a bit on rainfall in our region for later Sunday through Monday night.  

Yeah its a bit up in the air but the overall idea of a strong cold front, relatively slow moving, signals a chance at a more widespread event than we have seen lately. Some severe possible as well given the air-mass it will be moving into. Other than last Thursday, my yard has missed just about everything this month. I will gladly take an inch of rain between Sunday night and Tuesday AM.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah its a bit up in the air but the overall idea of a strong cold front, relatively slow moving, signals a chance at a more widespread event than we have seen lately. Some severe possible as well given the air-mass it will be moving into. Other than last Thursday, my yard has missed just about everything this month. I will gladly take an inch of rain between Sunday night and Tuesday AM.

That frontal passage will be the only rainfall oppurtunity for the next 7 to 10 days once the drier airmass moves in, so hopefuly we all score.   

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12 minutes ago, frd said:

@C.A.P.E.

Some private met service providers going 2 to 5 below average Eastern half of the Country days 6 to 10,  that is bullish !    

Latest runs of the EPS/GEFS think that is pretty reasonable. Hopefully once this heat ridge moves out we can keep a mean trough in the east for a while with ridging out west.

 

Here is the H5 anomaly panel for days 6-10 from the 0z EPS-

663424794_noheat.thumb.png.977532292f6e78f52c916bddf2735d89.png

 

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Latest runs of the EPS/GEFS think that is pretty reasonable. Hopefully once this heat ridge moves out we can keep a mean trough in the east for a while with ridging out west.

 

Here is the H5 anomaly panel for days 6-10 from the 0z EPS-

Do you think we are seeing our hottest temps for the summer now ?  ( We are getting this heat right at the climo peak )  

Wonder if the highest temps "relative" to normal still occur in September and October this year?  Fits the decadal pattern .  Warm Atlantic , strong WAR 

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Just now, frd said:

Do you think we are seeing our hottest temps for the summer now ?  ( We are getting this heat right at the climo peak )  

Wonder if the highest temps "relative" to normal still occur in September and October this year?  Fits the decadal pattern .  Warm Atlantic , strong WAR 

I won't wager a guess, but one of the things that make late season heat more tolerable for me is the earlier sunsets.  So for me, this time of the year is the worst of it. 

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2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I won't wager a guess, but one of the things that make late season heat more tolerable for me is the earlier sunsets.  So for me, this time of the year is the worst of it. 

I don't want a repeat of late last summer/early fall though. Terrible period of warmth with high dew-points.  

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