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July Discobs 2019


George BM
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10 minutes ago, yoda said:

Could be a few isolated severe storms as well with damaging wind gusts... we are MRGL outlooked by SPC today

     I have no disagreement with the MRGL outlook.    The soundings certainly support at least some downburst potential.    If the NAM nest is correct with the amount of organization and resulting strong cold pool, we'd require a SLGT, but that simulation may be overdone.

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15 minutes ago, high risk said:

While I do think we'll reach the convective temp, I'm not sure how relevant that is today.    The hi-res guidance shows a bunch of storms firing out over the terrain to our west, driven by local circulations and enhanced by the approaching shortwave.     While I'd like to see the HRRR as aggressive as the NAM, I feel pretty good about storm chances today, especially for those along and north of 66 in VA and 50 in MD on the west side of the bay.

idk but tonight kinda has the last Thursday vibe to me. Hot and steamy with an embedded shortwave coming in from the mountains.

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I’ve never felt like my weather station has been inaccurate. Sometimes I feel like the dew pt can be a few degree too high but not all of the time. I question this reading a little just due to the obs near the metros. Which are usually warmer than me. But, here is the current obs at home.

95/77/111

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z RAOB from IAD has a convective temp of 93°.  Not sure we get above 95 degrees outside the urban centers.  It would be interesting to see how many days IAD, BWI and DCA average with a high above 95 and how we compare so far this year.  

Looks like IAD/BWI/EZF should all reach 95 next hour... Stafford already reached... MD Science Center/College Park already reached

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Yep, def pretty soupy here in Charm City, 95.5 IMBY at present. 

Sterling posted some temp records for the region in their morning AFD...

.CLIMATE...
As of 4:40 this morning, the temperature at Washington Dulles
International Airport (IAD) had so far only dropped to 77
degrees. The record daily warm low temperature for July 17th is
75 degrees, set back in 1988.

The record daily warm low temperature for IAD for July 18th is
74 degrees, set in 2005 and 1969.

As a reference, here are the warm temperature records for
Friday through this weekend:

Record Daily High Temperatures
        Jul 19       Jul 20       Jul 21
DCA   102 (1930)   106 (1930)   104 (1926)
BWI   103 (1930)   102 (1930)   104 (1930)
IAD    98 (1977)   101 (1980)   101 (1991)

Record Daily Warm Low Temperatures
        Jul 19       Jul 20       Jul 21
DCA    81 (1930)    82 (2015)    82 (1987)
BWI    80 (1942)    80 (1930)    83 (1930)
IAD    77 (2013)    75 (2015)    77 (1987)

Highest July Temperatures
        Highest Max       Warmest Low
DCA   106 (7/20/1930)   84 (7/24/2011, 7/23/2011, 7/16/1983)
BWI   107 (7/10/1936)   83 (7/21/1930)
IAD   105 (7/22/2011)   78 (7/24/2010, 7/8/2010)

All-time Highest Temperatures
        Highest Max                 Warmest Low
DCA   106 (7/20/1930, 8/6/1918)   84 (7/24/2011, 7/23/2011, 7/16/1983)
BWI   107 (7/10/1936)             83 (8/5/1930, 7/21/1930, 6/6/1925)
IAD   105 (7/22/2011)             79 (8/8/2007)
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LWX going with highs around 100 on Saturday for DC and i95 corridor counties in latest zones (issued at 1:35 pm) with upper 90s on Friday and Sunday... as well as lows in lower 80s Friday night and Saturday night and near 80 Sunday night.  Below is the zone forecast for DC:  :maphot: :maphot: :maphot:

Quote

.FRIDAY...Sunny, hot with highs in the upper 90s. West winds
around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 80s.
.SATURDAY...Sunny, hot with highs around 100. Heat index values
up to 110.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 80s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Hot with highs in the upper 90s. Chance of rain
30 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 80. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the mid 90s.
Chance of rain 60 percent.
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