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July Discobs 2019


George BM
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From the morning HWO for the areas along the I95 corridor (metro areas) and into SE MD:

Quote

Heat indices around 105 degrees are possible Wednesday and
Thursday during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Increasing heat and tropical moisture may result in thunderstorms
capable of producing a few damaging wind gusts or isolated
instances of flooding Wednesday and Thursday.

Dangerous heat and humidity are likely Friday through Sunday
across the entire area. Heat indices of 110 to 115 degrees are
possible during the afternoon and evening hours each day, and heat
indices may hold in the 80s and 90s at night. If the prolonged
heat and humidity is realized, it will become a significant threat
to anyone exposed to the heat for an extended period of time.
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Updated morning AFD from LWX mentions perhaps a few days over 100 degrees as well

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dangerous heat is becoming increasingly likely Friday through
this weekend.

850/925 hPa temps of 25/30 C respectively are expected Friday
through the weekend. Full mixing would result in surface
temperatures exceeding 100 degrees F. Given uncertainties in
just how much we mix, not willing to go quite that high this far
out in the forecast, but the potential is there for multiple
days near or exceeding 100. This combined with high humidity
will likely result in dangerous heat, with heat index values of
105 to 115 well within the realm of possibility.

Given the fact that high heat and humidity will likely occur
for multiple days in a row, this compounds the danger of
excessive heat. Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat for
tips to beat the heat.

A rather strong trough and associated surface cold front
approaches early next week, and when it collides with the heat
and humidity in place, it seems possible that strong
thunderstorms may result.

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

GFS is struggling with the urban heat island.  Significant difference between DCA and IAD.

The Euro- I don’t know.

 

Edit - Saturday afternoon.  Euro is 105ish, all the other globals are 98-101.

you realize what you are saying?  Whats the difference between 100 or 105 when your flesh is sizzling and crackling like frying up chicharrones?

Image result for moleman on fire gif

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23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

14:00 on 7/16/19:

Baltimore Inner Harbor (KDMH): 97/72

Stafford, VA (KRMN): 99/72

Fredericksburg, VA (KEZF): 95/73

RMN and EZF are both reporting full sun and have west or southwest winds, while we have some filtered high clouds so the higher temps aren't unbelievable, IMO.

Stafford airport recorded a dewpoint of 82 degrees around 10 AM.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Huh, well then it's likely suspect.  

Sometimes during the summer when the sun comes up strong, the rapid rise in temperature can cause the dewpoint to rise fast before falling back down.

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

Sometimes during the summer when the sun comes up strong, the rapid rise in temperature can cause the dewpoint to rise fast before falling back down.

True, also it's not terrible far from the Potomac River.  The Td is right in line with surrounding sites and EZF is hot too which is why I initially didn't discount the reading.  

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26 minutes ago, yoda said:

I see AKQ and PHL have issued HA's for tomorrow for pretty much all of their zones... wonder if LWX will issue one along the I95 corridor/metro areas tomorrow morning

Forecast high for for tomorrow here was 93 this morning, now its 96. Dews expected to be about the same. HA or not, its gonna be hot. 

Forecast high for Sat is 99 here now. Pretty confident that will bust low. I don't think I have seen a high in my yard exceeding 97 since I have lived here. No urbanization whatsoever. Just farms and trees. Love to see 100 just for the hell of it.

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

88/73 here.

I would love to see 100/80 Fri and or Sat lol. I always bust low here with these Atlantic heat ridge setups. The wildcard is the remnant tropical air mass getting injected from Barry.

You sure your weather station (if you have one) isn't under a bunch of trees? Seems kinda low for today's temps. 

Like under a whole forest. A couple trees is fine.

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40 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

You sure your weather station (if you have one) isn't under a bunch of trees? Seems kinda low for today's temps. 

Like under a whole forest. A couple trees is fine.

That was the current temp and dp readings. Not the high. Official temp is supposed to be taken without influence from direct sun, so shade/trees are not relevant. My station is 3-4 ft off the ground. It does get "sun soaked" for about 6-8 hours this time of year btw. It's designed well enough that the sun has little influence though- I check my station temp against an auxiliary temp sensor I keep on the north side of the house(no sun at all) and its within a couple degrees. High temps were 91 and 93 from the 2 sensors today, respectively.

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That was the current temp and dp readings. Not the high. Official temp is supposed to be taken without influence from direct sun, so shade/trees are not relevant. My station is 3-4 ft off the ground. It does get "sun soaked" for about 6-8 hours this time of year btw. It's designed well enough that the sun has little influence though- I check my station temp against an auxiliary temp sensor I keep on the north side of the house(no sun at all) and its within a couple degrees. High temps were 91 and 93 from the 2 sensors today, respectively.

Ah. I misread. I live basically right in the middle of a neighborhood so my readings are gonna be slightly higher. However I only have one station, so I might invest in another thermometer.

92/74 here currently, the dewpoint fell a little after a high of 95.

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2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Ah. I misread. I live basically right in the middle of a neighborhood so my readings are gonna be slightly higher. However I only have one station, so I might invest in another thermometer.

92/74 here currently, the dewpoint fell a little after a high of 95.

That makes a difference. I am totally in the woods, with no neighbors nearby, but the back yard does get some decent sun.

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4 hours ago, yoda said:

I see AKQ and PHL have issued HA's for tomorrow for pretty much all of their zones... wonder if LWX will issue one along the I95 corridor/metro areas tomorrow morning

There it is 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
849 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019


DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-VAZ052>057-170900-
/O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0001.190717T1500Z-190718T0000Z/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie,
Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel,
Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate,
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf,
Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown,
Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Bethesda,
Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City,
Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair,
Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean,
Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth,
Fredericksburg, and Dahlgren
849 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Heat Advisory, which is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT
Wednesday.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Around 105 degrees with temperatures in the
  middle 90s and dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.
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