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July Discobs 2019


George BM
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I believe the upcoming week is the climo warmest of the summer, and it looks like it will feature some serious heat and humidity. Could certainly see a 97-98 high for Friday/Saturday in the DC-PHI corridor. Most places outside the cities will probably see low to mid 90s. The bigger story looks to be the humidity levels by late week- dew points perhaps getting close to 80? The nights are going to feel awful too, with lows well up into the 70s and oppressive humidity. HI values might be near 110 in some places by Friday afternoon.

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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Going to be hard to get 100 with dews above 72 degrees.  We'll need 850/925 temps and no afternoon crap clouds.  Hope we get it though.

The dews don't look oppressive, so if we get the right downslope/mixing combo we might be able to do it.  I didn't go to 100 in the summer contest precisely because of the wet conditions though, and I think LWS is right to keep the forecast in the upper 90s.

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The dews don't look oppressive, so if we get the right downslope/mixing combo we might be able to do it.  I didn't go to 100 in the summer contest precisely because of the wet conditions though, and I think LWS is right to keep the forecast in the upper 90s.

DPs on the GFS look pretty gross Friday through Sunday, mostly low to mid 70s. 

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

The dews don't look oppressive, so if we get the right downslope/mixing combo we might be able to do it.  I didn't go to 100 in the summer contest precisely because of the wet conditions though, and I think LWS is right to keep the forecast in the upper 90s.

From this afternoon's LWX AFD about Friday and Saturday heat and HI:

In the wake of this troughing, ridging will build Friday and
Saturday. The heat will likely be most intense during these two
days, with high temperatures well into the 90s, and dew points near
or above 70. WPC probabilistic heat index guidance indicates a
likelihood of Heat Advisory criteria (100 west/105 east) being met
across much of the area. Saturday may have the highest heat indices,
with the same guidance showing a risk of Excessive Heat Warning
criteria (105 west/110 east).

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Mount Holly's take on the heat for Friday into the weekend-

Friday through Sunday...The heat is on and will continue through the weekend. Surface high pressure will situate itself over the western Atlantic with a surface trough across the eastern seaboard. In the mid and upper levels, we will see a large ridge spread across the Mid-Atlantic, which will help in facilitating an increasingly hot airmass through the weekend. While the numbers may vary across the models, the 850mb temperatures look to rise around 22-23C each day, which translates to upper 90s to around 100 degrees at the surface, especially for Friday and Saturday. With dew points in the mid to upper 70s, it will feel oppressive and it is looking increasingly likely that heat headlines will be needed for this period. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 70s to around 80, especially through the urban corridor, providing no relief from the heat. The heat starts to break a bit for Sunday as the upper/mid ridge starts to shift towards the east but both the GFS and ECMWF hold onto the higher 850mb values through Sunday so anticipate that the excessive heat will continue through the end of the weekend.

 

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