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July Discobs 2019


George BM
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29 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

My daughter fell asleep during the fireworks last night (edit-Thursday, time gets away from me).  She is the true “sleep through a freight train” kid.  Other faults, but at least we got that going for us.

Our younger one will generally sleep through noise, but won’t go down while things are happening. Tonight was a different story though.

Annoyed that we just missed on a ton of good stuff this evening. Even the little tail-end cell that popped up as the big one rolled across the Potomac missed us by a couple miles.

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44 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, you got the fatter part of the line.  Looks like a swath of 0.5”+ between Mattie and I, pointed in your direction.

if you want some model fun, go check out the end of the 00z HRRR.  Completely rakes FFX and Loudoun tomorrow night.

Check out the 00z NAM... pretty much does the same 

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8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA is running only 1.5” of precip behind last year.  Of course, July is when last year started going supernova.

Wonder if this year follows the same pattern,  or whether we make a change going forward to a hotter regime and drier.  drier = hotter 

Some models indicate mid month a supportive pattern of hotter weather. Yet, so far at least, even a dry periods have reversed going back to wet. Some have missed the rainfall but certainly it has been more wet than not. 

Summer blocking supports heat further into the season so whether the current blocking continues might have a say.   

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https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lwx&wwa=flash flood watch

 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1156 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019


DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016-503>506-VAZ031-050>057-501-502-
505-506-WVZ052-053-080000-
/O.EXB.KLWX.FF.A.0008.190707T2200Z-190708T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-
Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Charles-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Clarke-Orange-
Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick,
Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown,
Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton,
College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie,
Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton,
St. Charles, Waldorf, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville,
Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City,
Berryville, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas,
Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale,
Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria,
Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton,
Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Martinsburg,
Charles Town, and Shepherdstown
1156 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded
the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of Maryland, The
  District of Columbia, Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia,
  including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel,
  Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast
  Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore,
  Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges,
  Southern Baltimore, and Washington. The District of Columbia.
  In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Clarke,
  Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George, Northern
  Fauquier, Orange, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park,
  Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Western
  Loudoun. In panhandle West Virginia, Berkeley and Jefferson.

* From 6 PM EDT this evening through late tonight

* Slow moving showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight.
  Torrential rainfall may lead to totals exceeding 2 inches in a
  short period of time. This may cause flash flooding of small
  streams and other poor drainage urban areas.
 

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nams are pretty bullish for central Md late tonight and tomorrow morning.  A lot of 2-4" amounts .

3k has a nice positioned 1008 mini low in extreme southern Md tomorrow around 10z - 12z .Nice convection north and west of it 

HRRR is kinda uppity with rain too.  My garden could use it.

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I couldn't take it anymore. My yard has missed every storm in every possible direction, failing in every possible way over the last week. That split/collapse last night with a solid line on my doorstep(and a warning) was pathetic and the last straw. Not a drop. I had to get away and forget about my dried out, burning yard. I am in Vermont now and working my way to NH. Absolutely gorgeous here. I will be at Mt Washington on Wed probably. Looks like mid 50s and ofc, very windy. 

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I could so live up here. So many great and unique quaint towns. In Manchester currently. Heading to Killington tomorrow and then really looking forward to Woodstock. Staying there tomorrow night. Then off to NH. 50-50 whether I do auto road or the cog. The cog is so unique, but pricey.. but then I love an adventurous mountain drive.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2019

0244 AM FLOOD KEARNEYSVILLE  39.39N  77.89W
07/08/2019 JEFFERSON COUNTY WV  

POLICE REPORTED TO 911 CENTER THAT 8 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER IS COVERING MULTIPLE ROADS IN THE KEARNEYSVILE AREA.
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