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July Discobs 2019


George BM
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2 hours ago, H2O said:

No storms here on the eastern shore but home got it.  If anyone in the Kingstowne area can give feedback on what it was like I’d appreciate. Power went out at my moms house in Annandale so worried about that too

I'm about 3.5 miles away from Kingstowne, and not far from Belle Haven Country Club.

It rained.  A lot of it, and heavy.  It also got a bit windy and there was T&L.  Storm was moving at a snail's pace.

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Can't believe how sweaty I am from getting the ATV's ready for the WV trip. It's like I just stepped out of a pool with my pants on.

I agree. Just stepped out for a late 420 session and broke a sweat just sitting there for 5 minutes. This is the only extreme type weather I don't like. Give me a high temp of 7 and a 50mph wind and I'm good.

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Is radarscope overdoing the meso that it shows in our CWA?  Like there is one right now just west of Middleburg in VA.  But when you look at the base velocity (time sensitive) I don't see really any rotation at all.  Am I reading it wrong?

It's usually over by the BR as well 

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Is radarscope overdoing the meso that it shows in our CWA?  Like there is one right now just west of Middleburg in VA.  But when you look at the base velocity (time sensitive) I don't see really any rotation at all.  Am I reading it wrong?

It's usually over by the BR as well 

There's another rotation marker on radarscope right now again by Middleburg... is this the mountains playing tricks again or is there real rotation there?  (734pm radarscope)

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

You can see it clearer on the reflectivity on the Hrdps better . Once that blob of n to s convection forms there's no east or west motion ..just rains itself out in those areas potentially.  I'd think a flash flood threat is definitely possible and with  real high pwats as well . 

 

 

Hope I can get in on some of that. My yard needs it.

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

You can see it clearer on the reflectivity on the Hrdps better . Once that blob of n to s convection forms there's no east or west motion ..just rains itself out in those areas potentially.  I'd think a flash flood threat is definitely possible and with  real high pwats as well . 

 

Screenshot_20190704-085112_Chrome_crop_266x312.jpg

I have noticed that storms traveling from a south or southeast direction tend to be slow movers and can dump a lot of precipitation.

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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1123 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-503>506-VAZ052>054-506-042330-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0006.190704T1700Z-190705T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie,
Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel,
Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate,
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda,
Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia,
Ellicott City, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge,
Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly,
McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Leesburg,
Ashburn, and Sterling
1123 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of
  Columbia, and northern Virginia, including the following
  areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast
  Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northwest Howard,
  Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, and Southern Baltimore.
  The District of Columbia. In northern Virginia,
  Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax,
  and Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park.

* Until 8 PM EDT this evening

* Slow moving showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
  after 1 PM this afternoon before diminishing early this evening.
  Torrential rainfall rates may lead to totals exceeding 2 inches
  in a short period of time. This may cause flash flooding of
  small streams and other poor drainage urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

New hrrrrr bullseyes MBY. I’m hugging. Pwats are 2”+. Whomever gets underneath a cell is gonna get dumped on.

I’m not trying to steal your rain, but I need it  so hopefully there’s enough to go around. In lieu of a rain dance, I’m brewing today which should being on the storms.

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Meso Precip Disco just issued, should take 15-20 min to appear:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=530&yr=2019

EDIT:  :o worth a read

Quote

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0530
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1140 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2019

Areas affected...Interstate 95 corridor including northern VA,
Washington DC, MD, southeast PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041540Z - 042100Z

Summary...Rapidly developing but slow moving thunderstorms will
produce torrential rain this afternoon. Rainfall rates may exceed
2"/hr, during which the slow motion will allow for 1-3" of
rainfall, locally higher. This could produce flash flooding,
especially across the urban corridor where FFG is lower.

Discussion...Convection is blossoming early this morning in a
highly favorable environment ahead of a weak shortwave/MCV evident
on GOES-16 WV imagery entering West Virginia. 12Z U/A soundings
east of the Appalachians analyzed PWAT over 2 inches at most
locations south of PA, and the 2.02" observed at IAD is a daily
record. RAP forecasts suggests PWAT may climb as high as 2.25
inches across the discussion area this afternoon, which would not
only be a daily record, but approach July monthly highs. This
anomalous moisture is combining with 15Z RAP Analyzed MUCape
already exceeding 3000 J/kg, producing a thermodynamic environment
that is highly favorable for excessive rainfall.

Both satellite and regional radar show thunderstorms developing
quickly in response to the surface heating and mid-level lapse
rates of 6-7 C/km. Limited shear will inhibit storm organization
this afternoon, leaving pulse convection as the expected mode.
These storms will move very slowly in a weakly forced environment
however, and RAP Corfidi vectors fall to less than 5 kts. This
suggests nearly stationary storms with storm mergers and,
eventually, boundary collisions from outflow driving renewed
thunderstorm development. This makes it difficult to discern
exactly where the heaviest rainfall will occur as storms will
remain scattered in nature, and this is echoed by recent HRRR and
ARW guidance showing spotty heavy rain signatures over 3".
However, rainfall rates of 2"/hr on top of the relatively lowered
FFG of the urban corridor will support a flash flood risk until
the atmosphere overturns later this afternoon.

HREF 3-hr exceedance probabilities are modest, and 7-day rainfall
departures are well below normal, but these types of rain rates
could support flash flooding, especially where storms linger,
mergers occur to briefly enhance rain rates, or across the
impervious urban areas.

Weiss

 

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13 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Matter what time of a year a 990s low off the Carolina coast catches my weenie attention.:D  Gfs has been hinting at this time frame day 6-7 for a couple days . Eps actually has some minor interest . H5 says to me most likely a southern mid Atlantic storm and ene from there if it materializes but worth watching.  Warm water so something tropical is certainly possible.  Where's Wxwatcher 

Edit..

Looks like Wxwatcher mentioned this timeframe in the tropical thread :)

 

Screenshot_20190703-215425_Chrome.jpg

At least maybe get some better swells down the road, it has been rather lame wave-wise along the lower Southern NJ coastline .  Early next week has some potential possibly. But on a positive note, ocean temps near the surf zone have warmed the last few days.    

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Anyone under the northern Montgomery county cell

No, but it looks decent.  One just popped over Reisterstown.  The good news for fireworks and outdoor lovers is that an early kick off could throw a bunch of outflow boundaries with rain cooled air everywhere so from like 4 or 5 pm onward we're good.

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