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Typhoon Tip

July pattern(s) and discussion

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26 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

holy shite, that's ridiculous for Saturday. We'll be having 25-30 people over. maybe we'll be partying in the basement.

Won't be much fun on Saturday, I'll be looking for the shade, Just hoping for a breeze, May have to make a red neck pool.

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In general ... when DP is added to air, it steals from the temperature ... That's the old trusty, PV=NRT at work for ya - 

96/76 might be a good call anyway but we don't have to limit per se ... Case in point, in 2011 ... 102/75 too place down there and it wasn't an accident of a single outlier, either... It was pervasive down that way, with a scattering throughout metrowest of Boston too ... ( I wanna say July 22? but I'm notoriously bad with exact dates) .  Anyway, that was about as ideal of a set up on that faithful date as can be achieved ( interestingly about that day ... mid afternoon a kind of 'dry line' swept down the Mohawk Trail all the way to the coast ...roughly N of the Mass Pike... and stranded the heat there with bone-dry variety.  I recall Fitchburg had a DP in the mid to upper 60s at 99 around noon...  but 3pm it was low to mid 50s at one dollar).  

Hard to say what Saturday's DP bathe will exactly be - cannot be ascertained (still) from Tuesday.  I don't think anyway.  But if 850 mb temperatures are 22 or 23 C on a West wind the sfc can get to 102 just eyeballin' the skew-t/log-p diagram...  ( Oh know ...not ... actual meteorology!)    22 C gets you to ~ 97 using standard adiabat and 1000 mb.. but, 23 gets you just over 98 ... but the 2-meter is usually a logarithmic slope good for almost 2 C and there's you'r 101 ... 102..   

The Euro attempts to miss a heat wave entirely...  

Whaaa - 

Yup... First of all it's joined the others in using Barry's theta-e smear to choke out Thursday.   NAM just goes so far as to generate actual close isobars as his guts come... which of course sensibly acts like a flag taut BD ...  Either way, that all took Thursday out of contention, so regardless of heat tomorrow ( marginal 90 as it appears...), we have to reset.  

Friday and Saturday are slam dunks ... But Sunday is morphing into more of wildcard than folks may realize.  This is a weird whack pattern we are in.. First of all, we shouldn't be getting this "deterministically" hot with such a flat ridge.   That does not mean flat ridges can't bring heat - it means... deterministically.  As in, no margin for error, yet ...no perturbations or errors in four days of this ?   Think about that.. but's been stalwart for at least for Friday and Saturday.  Relative to that, it's possible the Euro is too amped with the trough in Ontario early next week as an entirely separate matter... oy -

The long of the short is..  I could see an earlier front Sunday capping 89 ...and then we got a week that looks sumpin' like, 77/96/100/89 ... No heat wave trophy for you!  I kind of hope that happens...  89/101/101/89 ...  it underscores the silliness of human rules and conventions ...

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Meanwhile the most impressive FF now occurring in AR along weak boundary. Still related to Barry. That was underforecasted. 

 

Edit 3K NAM did very well.

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Those Euro dews are being tossed all the way back into the gulf of mexico.

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The region around the Red Sea around NE Africa is touted as the highest combination of sustained dew point temperature in combination with high temperature on the planet.  

Combinations as high a 115/88 have been noted in that region in the past.  

It seems what the Euro is attempting to do, is get us into the 80th %tile of hottest total thermodynamic circumstance plausible.    But, ... 80% does offer some wiggle room :arrowhead:

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

The region around the Red Sea around NE Africa is touted as the highest combination of sustained dew point temperature in combination with high temperature on the planet.  

Combinations as high a 115/88 have been noted in that region in the past.  

It seems what the Euro is attempting to do, is get us into the 80th %tile of hottest total thermodynamic circumstance plausible.    But, ... 80% does offer some wiggle room :arrowhead:

I remember regularly experiencing 100/84 in Dubai along the Persian Gulf. When the dew would drop to like 77F, you'd get 106F.

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Well... here's another school of thinking ... 

GW planetary/environmental modeling doesn't exact spurn the notion of increasing frequency of elevated DPs in the integrated atmosphere.  

We've seen 84 F DPs over the Iowa farming ambiance ... This was quite noticeable in the 2012 heat wave - a rare heat wave that nearly matched what's been taking place more repetitively abroad, but struck from the the MS Valley to the M/A ..  At it's capped apex ( meaning open sear unabated solar irradience with limited vertical mixing ...) DPs were 78 to 85 through eastern NE ... IA to northern IL..  

That's transient anthropogenically induced.   I'm not sure how the former GW plays into that.  It has to by some .. intuitively.  

Anyway, the notion/fact that we have relatively lower incidences of 90 F high temperatures across New England, yet...many climate sites are soared to + 4.. 5 or more above for July so far, ...connected to elevated nocturnal lows... 

See ... here's the insidious problem ... water.  It's specific heat by volume is 4. and half times greater compared to air ...without water.  By sustaining more vapor content, ...even decimals ( thus ) have a profound impact on the thermal behavior of the atmosphere. Namely, .1 C may mean 2 F ... just spit-ballin' an example... It's not a geometrical relationship is all I'm saying.  We could be running just a slight positive DP anomaly ( GW or not... but I suspect as much...), and that would account for these lows being elevated.   I've taken note my self that all of these mild nights have happened when it was clear.   So, ..it's not for a dearth of radiational opportunities. 

This could all  be partially or totally true, and the DPs could still just be totally wrong by the Euro... Just trying to provoke thought 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember regularly experiencing 100/84 in Dubai along the Persian Gulf. When the dew would drop to like 77F, you'd get 106F.

Dubai ?  ...interesting... why were you there?  

You're lucky... I wanna see so much  - but feel just like all the other flies in the economic amber of the proletariat life.   

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Daily record high PWATS possible tomorrow? 

Yeah...those 80 dews are NOT happening Saturday...not a chance in hell. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Daily record high PWATS possible tomorrow? 

Yeah...those 80 dews are NOT happening Saturday...not a chance in hell. 

There will probably be a weenie hour or two where a weenie agricultural ASOS tickles 78-80 in the morning or evening at some point from Fri to Sun. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Dubai ?  ...interesting... why were you there?  

You're lucky... I wanna see so much  - but feel just like all the other flies in the economic amber of the proletariat life.   

My Dad worked there for about 7-8 years....so we visited him. The worst part about that summer climate is that the high dewpoints don't usually produce rain or clouds. It's all low level moisture from the gulf trapped below a hellacious cap so you get blazing sunshine with 84F dewpoints but not a drop of rain.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

There will probably be a weenie hour or two where a weenie agricultural ASOS tickles 78-80 in the morning or evening at some point from Fri to Sun. 

I can picture Kevin jogging at 4:30 AM Saturday with a psychrometer handy 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Daily record high PWATS possible tomorrow? 

Yeah...those 80 dews are NOT happening Saturday...not a chance in hell. 

Just like no heat was coming this month. 

Last year no one believed the modeled 80 degree dews and they happened even on the tarmac. I would be completely shocked if we don’t see 79-82 degree dews Saturday and Sunday morning and evenings. Your’re bringing a TS thru the region and air that is coming from the super soaked Mid Mississippi Valley. Source region is like Africa 

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not a good weekend to be in Loudon watching cars going around in a circle. 

Watching grass grow sounds more riveting.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just like no heat was coming this month. 

Last year no one believed the modeled 80 degree dews and they happened even on the tarmac. I would be completely shocked if we don’t see 79-82 degree dews Saturday and Sunday morning and evenings. Your’re bringing a TS thru the region and air that is coming from the super soaked Mid Mississippi Valley. Source region is like Africa 

It would be more impressive if they held during the daytime. Dewpoints are typically highest around daybreak and then during the evening so if that were to occur I don't find that overly impressive...I guess getting a dew of 80 here is, but if the dew is still 78-80 at 1:00 PM...that's notable.  

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My Dad worked there for about 7-8 years....so we visited him. The worst part about that summer climate is that the high dewpoints don't usually produce rain or clouds. It's all low level moisture from the gulf trapped below a hellacious cap so you get blazing sunshine with 84F dewpoints but not a drop of rain.

Yeah ... you nailed it. That's precisely it...   I have a met text/fact -based book among my dusty collection at home. Among other facets of our beloved field...  it describes that setting and why - 

Not sure how civility could even have come to adapt.  But.. it is tolerated and they do.  I mean...thinking about it... there was no "A.C.'ed" brick and mortar and steel and glass structures there ... before what, 70 ... 90 years ago.  What did the Bedouin cultures of pre-industrial dawning Middle East, like ... do?   

Modern times did see the advent of those environmental technologies in close enough concert with urban arrivals.  Probably, ...they cannot be separated as phenomenon... Like, I can't imagine a modern building in Dubai without environmental controls, so I'm even willing to suspect that A.C. macro-tech evolved necessarily first... then the sky-lines erected around that region of the world. 

But Jesus dude...  I'm amazed by heat...  Not so much heat that's "expected" - like... I'm not impressed by 40" of snow in one dose on mount Shasta ... But, people pound away at their keyboards, posts of awe and joy - meh.   Likewise... I'm not runnin' out to a salt flat 10 miles outside of Furnace Creek Cali under a +3 SD ridge, and acting like it's incredible.   Still, having "successfully" engendered a civility that is obviously, vastly more complex than Bedouin nomadic and tribal, in that setting, is an entirely fascinating achievement.  

Ha... you know ..I chuckle imagining counting to three ...then bolting to run from car across parking lot to grocery store or else you DIE.  Like ...running on hot coals challenge...  

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not a good weekend to be in Loudon watching cars going around in a circle. 

On a normal summer day it is brutally hot watching a race there. No thanks on  days like this upcoming weekend. It's impossible to enjoy the race all that much when it is that hot.

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I remember cracking 80F dews a number of times living on CC. We all want 80+, but high 70's will probably be the upper limits for most, as usual.

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Just now, Dr. Dews said:

I remember cracking 80F dews a number of times living on CC. We all want 80+, but high 70's will probably be the upper limits for most, as usual.

Who is "all" ???

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29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not a good weekend to be in Loudon watching cars going around in a circle. 

Probably not much fun driving them, too

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Probably not much fun driving them, too

They can just crank up the a.c.

B)

 

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I remember cracking 80F dews a number of times living on CC. We all want 80+, but high 70's will probably be the upper limits for most, as usual.

No "We" all don't, But definitely "We" (as in two of you do), You and your brother in CT.

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My Dad worked there for about 7-8 years....so we visited him. The worst part about that summer climate is that the high dewpoints don't usually produce rain or clouds. It's all low level moisture from the gulf trapped below a hellacious cap so you get blazing sunshine with 84F dewpoints but not a drop of rain.

100/84 sounds insane. I’d probably want to witness that a few times just for the experience though.

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