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Typhoon Tip

July pattern(s) and discussion

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea not overhyped.???

  The WAPO chastised the mayor of New Orleans for not ordering a mandatory evactuation. The hype was way way off the hook . A forecasted 200 miles wide foot plus of rain ended up a fifth of that. How come modeling didn't pick up on the dry air incursion? All in all the Euro performance was excellent 10 days out too from a MCS over Missouri to a TS hitting West La. Awesome job. As we all know qpf is the lowest scoring.  I am calling out the frauds who preemptively blamed a  TS in July on climate 

I was also questioning  that decision from the mayor. His reason? Because it’s not a cat 3. Huh? This was about possible flooding as the MS river floods a fishbowl of a city. It wasn’t overhyped, it was a grave concern. I completely get it. Now it’s not my business to go public with critique, by his reasoning was flawed.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I was also questioning  that decision from the mayor. His reason? Because it’s not a cat 3. Huh? This was about possible flooding as the MS river floods a fishbowl of a city. It wasn’t overhyped, it was a grave concern. I completely get it. Now it’s not my business to go public with critique, by his reasoning was flawed.

Read the whole statement not what was spoon fed to you by the agenda driven media

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have video in my old phone of a July  14 big surf day. Heres a pic from that day at my Weekapaug break spot. It happens but yea its August when lifeguarding always got crazy.

Screenshot_20190715-145947_Photos.jpg

Aluminum foil?

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Just now, dendrite said:

:bike:

Only thing missing from this summer is a head high surf day. No need for double head high as I couldn't do it with my back. I think I spend so much time in the water now is because it takes the pressure off. But man what a summer day. It was a beaut Clark

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12z UKMET shows 5”-10” of rain across NY, CT, and RI on Thursday.

12z EURO has 1”-3” of rain across the same area.

12z GFS has scattered showers.

 

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53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Read the whole statement not what was spoon fed to you by the agenda driven media

Easy Trump. I know what was said and what was forecasted. Imo, it wasn’t overhyped when guidance is gung ho. Granted I wasn’t sure of those numbers in a large area, but it wasn’t like someone just pulled shit out of their ass. I drown out the alarmists as that’s not hype, that is misinformation. Same on the other side.

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Any posts about the Super Derecho?

24-years ago today! What an event. 

Woke up about 6:00-6:30 AM that day, wasn't feeling well and go out of bed and went into the living room to turn on The Weather Channel. Waited about a half an hour and went to my mom to see what was up...turned out the cable lineup CHANGED that day. So we found it and BOOM...there it was. Fell in love with t'storms since. 

CAPE well into the thousands before 7 AM :lol: 

WE NEED SOMETHING LIKE THIS AGAIN 

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46 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Where the heck is CT Blizz?

The usual cycle... his hype and shtick built-up over time, then there was a little piggy pile about how it was getting old, and ORH posted a good beginner's guide to interpreting DIT's posts.... then he takes a week off or something.  He hasn't posted since then anyway.

He'll come back when it's 95/72 in full glory later this week I'm sure.  He's lurking at times.

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Some of you SNE guys can riddle me this...

How the hell did BDL see 89F today while ORH had a high of 78F? 

That's twice the dry adiabatic rate and they are only 1,000ft elevation difference?

I mean I know you'll have some compressional heating at BDL on downslope NW flow... but an 11-degree difference between those two sites on a deep layer NW flow day?

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6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

So so many perfect July days. Water is just right. Need some surf

100% agree Steve. A little recurving home brew would be a welcome addition for the south facing beaches. 

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Some of you SNE guys can riddle me this...

How the hell did BDL see 89F today while ORH had a high of 78F? 

That's twice the dry adiabatic rate and they are only 1,000ft elevation difference?

I mean I know you'll have some compressional heating at BDL on downslope NW flow... but an 11-degree difference between those two sites on a deep layer NW flow day?

It’s like ORH airport is 2400’ and BDL 50’

 

89 seems absurd

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s like ORH airport is 2200’ and BDL 50’

Honestly, that type of difference is what we typically see up here between BTV at 300ft and the base of Bolton Valley at 2,200ft.

It's not like one site was in the clouds or anything... both had CLR obs most of the day with 5-10mph NW breeze. 

And it's like ORH struggled to hit 78F too looking at the obs, while BDL sat at 89F for a couple hourly obs. 

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BOS also maxed at 87F... sneaky high temps, I had no idea the lower elevations in SNE were 85-90F today. 

Hills and NNE were 70s for highs it looks like. 

Seems like a more drastic contrast than you'd normally get with CLR skies and deep layer NW flow.  Must've been just enough compressional heating off the hills to really bake those SNE lower elevations.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

BOS also maxed at 87F... sneaky high temps, I had no idea the lower elevations in SNE were 85-90F today. 

Hills and NNE were 70s for highs it looks like. 

Seems like a more drastic contrast than you'd normally get with CLR skies and deep layer NW flow.  Must've been just enough compressional heating off the hills to really bake those SNE lower elevations.

I believe I had 83 in Nashua 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Honestly, that type of difference is what we typically see up here between BTV at 300ft and the base of Bolton Valley at 2,200ft.

It's not like one site was in the clouds or anything... both had CLR obs most of the day with 5-10mph NW breeze. 

And it's like ORH struggled to hit 78F too looking at the obs, while BDL sat at 89F for a couple hourly obs. 

87 here and in Westfield, MA.  BDL seems to have drifted a couple degrees high IMHO.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Easy Trump. I know what was said and what was forecasted. Imo, it wasn’t overhyped when guidance is gung ho. Granted I wasn’t sure of those numbers in a large area, but it wasn’t like someone just pulled shit out of their ass. I drown out the alarmists as that’s not hype, that is misinformation. Same on the other side.

Easy who? Whats the other side? You definitely have TDS. I have said the same thing for years. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

PF, Also Monday, state officials confirmed two dogs that recently died in Stowe were poisoned by toxins from cyanobacteria.

https://www.necn.com/news/new-england/Cyanobacteria-Concerns-Highlighted-in-Vermont-512754151.html

 

Damn, that's terrifying to think your dog can die after swimming in a pond.  Thanks for the heads up.  We stick to moving water for the most part, the river out back that runs from Mansfield to town... but most homes in the hills out of the municipal water supply tend to have ponds.  Pretty much all construction above 1,000ft seems to have a pond in the front yard for fire reasons...without a pond for the fire department to pump from, you are pretty much out of luck if your house catches fire and it's going to burn to the ground.

That would be devastating though to have the dog die from doing something it loves like swimming.

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Damn, that's terrifying to think your dog can die after swimming in a pond.  Thanks for the heads up.  We stick to moving water for the most part, the river out back that runs from Mansfield to town... but most homes in the hills out of the municipal water supply tend to have ponds.  Pretty much all construction above 1,000ft seems to have a pond in the front yard for fire reasons...without a pond for the fire department to pump from, you are pretty much out of luck if your house catches fire and it's going to burn to the ground.

That would be devastating though to have the dog die from doing something it loves like swimming.

Adult and pup,yes moving water is where its at.

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Easy who? Whats the other side? You definitely have TDS. I have said the same thing for years. 

Did you step on doggie doo and track it in the house today? Very angry. 

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2 hours ago, TheCloser24 said:

12z UKMET shows 5”-10” of rain across NY, CT, and RI on Thursday.

12z EURO has 1”-3” of rain across the same area.

12z GFS has scattered showers.

 

Ukie is definitely  one heck of a rainstorm.. precip blossoms between  hr 60 and 72

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51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Some of you SNE guys can riddle me this...

How the hell did BDL see 89F today while ORH had a high of 78F? 

That's twice the dry adiabatic rate and they are only 1,000ft elevation difference?

I mean I know you'll have some compressional heating at BDL on downslope NW flow... but an 11-degree difference between those two sites on a deep layer NW flow day?

Maxed out at 85F here.  Tack on a few degrees for UHI and you get 89F.  Site may run a degree or 2 warm

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Did you step on doggie doo and track it in the house today? Very angry. 

Someone needs to turn off the hype machines of TV and Social Media.

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