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Typhoon Tip

July pattern(s) and discussion

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Euro is trying to break an 850T record over CHH next Saturday evening. Pushing 26C at 00z. Like Tip said, just when models tried to meh this, it came back with a vengeance. 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

1.42" total from all of the different showers going back to Thursday.

This is my wettest June into July since I’ve moved here. Not saying much though as the summers have been dry recently. But, it’s been nice for the plants and grass. I also have a massive hen of the woods ready to be pulled and sautéd for those who like that.

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That might be peak summer heat for a couple of days. Afterwards ridge retros and a deeper trough settles near GL. About climo time for that. 

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is my wettest June into July since I’ve moved here. Not saying much though as the summers have been dry recently. But, it’s been nice for the plants and grass. I also have a massive hen of the woods ready to be pulled and sautéd for those who like that.

Mushroom?

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is my wettest June into July since I’ve moved here. Not saying much though as the summers have been dry recently. But, it’s been nice for the plants and grass. I also have a massive hen of the woods ready to be pulled and sautéd for those who like that.

Those are delicious.

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27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I have some poke berries if anyone is feeling adventurous and wants poke sallet.

Annie does :D

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10 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Most likely Post Office.

Well, duh!  Thanks again.  PO there is 100 yards south of the center of town (stoplight at Main/Broadway), so now I have info to track obs sites.

0.13" in shower last night. Left windows open in car and portable Bluetooth speaker probably ruined.

:huh:
Had some wind there to blow water inside?  None here, but added 0.15" last evening, over nearly 2 hours.  Given the narrow echoes a couple hours earlier, I expected maybe 10-15 minutes at most.  System total 1.05".  Bright sun with temps shooting up thru the 60s, a bit stuffy but dews are supposed to settle back into the 50s.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

This is my wettest June into July since I’ve moved here. Not saying much though as the summers have been dry recently. But, it’s been nice for the plants and grass. I also have a massive hen of the woods ready to be pulled and sautéd for those who like that.

Penale!!! So so good in pasta sauce with some hot Italian sausage , basil, oregano,  hot peppers. Friends mason jar it with sauce and peppers,  clove of garlic, a hot pepper.  Gold 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That might be peak summer heat for a couple of days. Afterwards ridge retros and a deeper trough settles near GL. About climo time for that. 

It depends whether we are talking continental ... or just SE Canada and New England.  It's closer to climo peak for these areas, granted, and saying things start relaxing afterward is also consistent with that timing... We'll see.

Pure speculative, admittedly, ... but imho the continent is destined to go through sloshing, where heat/r-wave wiggles translate heat to mid latitudes ... with varying success ...maybe three times over the next 40 days or so. Any one of which will turn out the warmer ...  I've seen the hottest week of summer land in the first week of September .. though rare.  Anyway, while all that is happening, we'll have our own private little enabling world of deniability ( haha), but if next week is the pinnacle of the season ... it'll be dumb luck relative to the "40 days and 40 nights" idea :) 

It's just balancing the behavior of the larger-scaled circulation medium over our part of the hemisphere ...a trend that seems rooted in longer termed shit.   This constant ablation of ridging any/every time one tries to balloon passed the 45th parallel...?  It's not an accident.   Nice early cool snaps in the fall then the gradient/GW pressure maelstrom kicks in again in Novie to ruin winter... -->  f-over spring...rinse repeat as a cute ancillary consequence during our unwitting stratagem to remove Humanity from any evolutionary contention - ehm..

That sawing off ridge propensity ... it appears endemic to the whole Earth right now to be blunt.  I wonder if perhaps it is physically associated with the deep solar nadir ...which frankly, lurks. I think that factor is ( probably ) heretofore merely suppressed ( though rears it's influence in subtler ways ...like the westerlies having trouble really retreating and a -AO dominated summer...).   It all seems to be modulating/dictating 'how' heat disperses to middle latitudes, and I think intermittency is a reasonable assumption here on out as a summer angel-invested by GW battles it out with -AO.

Just my 2 pennies worth.   

That all said... I don't like the 00z idea...  A 1.5 day spike at 850 sending Ts at that sigma level to historic proportions ... I don't think has ever happened.  Now, passed doesn't automatically preclude the future... duh.. But, what the Euro is doing is dancing around the fragility of the look... that's the take away.  The GGEM/ and the 06z GFS both look unusually flat where the ridging ( some old same old ) is being sawed off by the -AO westerlies band running W-E near the boarder state latitudes.  That makes the entire heat to 40 latitude real, real dicey.  

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Peak summer temperatures the week of July 15th.    My guess is we bake again 8/5 and beyond.   Summer the way it’s supposed to be.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep

Cool. My brother works at MIT and he harvested a whole bunch of morels on campus during the spring. I, however, don't trust my own ability to identify mushrooms properly and don't care to either accidentally end up tripping balls or feeding mushrooms myself. 

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That 980s low skirting across Maine towards the end of the Euro run might make for some interesting weather. That's pretty deep for this time of year. 

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Through 7/12 in SNE 

BOS: +5.0

BDL: +4.5

ORH: +4.0

PVD:  +2.7

 

Cranky FTW?

 

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Through 7/12 in SNE 

BOS: +5.0

BDL: +4.5

ORH: +4.0

PVD:  +2.7

 

Cranky FTW?

 

Damn those are big departures.  We are ticking up a bit here at the ASOS east of the Spine.  BTV torching like it does.

1V4... +0.4

MVL... +0.7

MPV... +1.2 

BTV... +3.9

One of those is not like the others though...

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Damn those are big departures.  We are ticking up a bit here at the ASOS east of the Spine.  BTV torching like it does.

1V4... +0.4

MVL... +0.7

MPV... +1.2 

BTV... +3.9

One of those is not like the others though...

What I find interesting is we are doing so within the envelop of seasonal standard deviation - ie, no particularly notable extremes.   

 

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Fwipnw - ... the GGEM and ICON 12z runs were absolute blazers for next weekend...  95-100 particularly Sat/Sun... but Frid and the following Mon are also over 90.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I what I find interesting is we are doing so within the envelop of seasonal standard deviation - ie, no particularly notable extremes.   

 

Yeah to have some sites in SNE at like +5 in the summer is impressive as summer departures are usually more muted in extremes than winter departures.  

But you are right, it’s not a +5 caused by week long stretches of 95F or something.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah to have some sites in SNE at like +5 in the summer is impressive as summer departures are usually more muted in extremes than winter departures.  

But you are right, it’s not a +5 caused by week long stretches of 95F or something.

For fun... buuut, ha!

It's part of the cheating motif the atmosphere's been doing.  It's trying to make the stats look like the summer heat lovers got their wishes... while cleverly shirking on any wish -

nice

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