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Typhoon Tip

July pattern(s) and discussion

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

normal at BDL is really 84? 

Considering this is the warmest week of the year, I would have guessed 85 or 86, maybe even 87. Maybe 84.4 is the monthly average which sounds about right.

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Just now, snowman21 said:

Considering this is the warmest week of the year, I would have guessed 85 or 86, maybe even 87. Maybe 84.4 is the monthly average which sounds about right.

Correct.  That's the average high temp at BDL for July.  The daily average temp is 85.4° at it's peak which is through tomorrow and then it starts ticking down.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Don't need to wait until next week to see 90.  

We could even bootleg a heat wave out of 89.6's, Friday afternoon onward... so yar, that may including some days next week.

This look ( to me ) is really a Sirius typology...  The 'dog star,' which rises and set with the sun from July through the end of August.  Hence the "dog days of summer". That saying is more so applied to a light wind and stagnantly warm humid air mass ... ..basically, boring.   

With 582 to 588 dm heights supporting diurnal thickness expansion .. but sans much EML expulsion from out west, together with diurnal/convectively induced dents and faux S/W in the models .... doesn't inspire much in the way of bona fide heat, but would support some.  So heh..89 to 91's..

The GFS ensemble mean is back to buckin' for an early autumn though.  I gotta figure we're going to have to field this from that model family until it really "can" happen...circa early September. But... the NAO is fallen out there so...maybe all this is a prelude to unlikely pattern .. ha

  

 

Dies caniculae...watch out, the Nile will flood. The French call a heat wave "la canicule"...but what's going on there now is truly ridiculous.

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38 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There is no way my normal high maxes at peak climo is like 80 here considering I’m usually 4F cooler than that heat pad. 

Today’s normal high is 85F and that’s at its peak.  

Monthly normal is the 84F.

It is crazy though... like you I assume July average high is like 88F, but nope, 85F is the highest daily max.  So all those 90-91F forecast days are at least +5s or +6s.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today’s normal high is 85F and that’s at its peak.  

Monthly normal is the 84F.

It is crazy though... like you I assume July average high is like 88F, but nope, 85F is the highest daily max.  So all those 90-91F forecast days are at least +5s or +6s.

Yea I thought it was higher. But is that a this century avg or since records began?

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I thought it was higher. But is that a this century avg or since records began?

Normals are 30 years. 1981-2010.

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I thought it was higher. But is that a this century avg or since records began?

BDL peaks at 85 from 7/10-8/1

But that really isn't much different from the period of record. Obviously individual days vary a little bit, but the POR peaks at 86 (if you round up) on 7/17-18.

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58 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There is no way my normal high maxes at peak climo is like 80 here considering I’m usually 4F cooler than that heat pad. 

You is they 

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1 hour ago, MJOatleast7 said:

Dies caniculae...watch out, the Nile will flood. The French call a heat wave "la canicule"...but what's going on there now is truly ridiculous.

I've noticed .. or perhaps suspected is the better term,  these like bias tendency bands.  And wondered ... perhaps they rotate around the hemisphere... There is a neutral band, a wet one... a dry one, a cold one and a hot one.   This is true in every season.  When you're in one, you always seem to flop some distance wet ... if rains - it's always a tenth more than modeled...  Same with temperatures and on and so on... Ever been in it in winter, and it just seems to snow for any reason.  The charts could be a barren wasteland of inactivity... but hell to handbaskets if you don't end up with 4-6" by the end of that week by fractals alone .. some how, some way.    

It's conjecture - but something I've observed.  These are not necessarily very readily discernible merely observing Rosby wave configurations ... or the tenors of the daily charts.  There could be correlation to ephemeral teleconnectors, but, I almost suspect that the teleconnectors are a response to it's rippling through.  They are like invisible ... and only registered after they've passed through a region like a silent influencer ...  

I think there is a secondary resonant 'sloshing' ... perhaps a residual tide that ebbs and flows in a wave or two - almost like a harmonic constructive interference that's giving something back just before events slip away into the event-horizon of entropy ... or something... Such that it is only there, if the prominences of the atmosphere are there first, and as they decay... you get these secondary emergent patterns of bias tendency. 

I'm probably not wording this precisely as clearly as it 'seems' to exist in my mind.  But ... it seems Europe was history-hot last month...then it decayed...and low and behold... we at least tried to... Now, we've returned to this model solution tendency where they seem to engineer trough depths from nothing... Meanwhile this canicule thing..  There's no particular reason why every other run we have to see the Euro carve out a big hole N of Lake Superior... now, when we didn't last week, but it allowed/caused us to get hot... Yet it's doing that... and, though it won't exist...( most likely)  we still won't get hot either.   Our fractals are back to neggie on warmth... Perhaps they'll be posi on warmth one last time before head into fall.

You know...I guess that's all I mean.  It's when the behavior of fractals are warm heavy vs cool.  Wet vs dry.   But those emergence tendencies, they don't seem to happen totally randomly?  They seem to propagate in bands around the hemisphere.  

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This is about as close as I can get with the limited options available

30dTDeptNRCC.png

AWT.  Thanks Paul.

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Technically BDL's average high dropped 0.1 off of the 84.9 peak from the 17th to yesterday. Official tick down doesn't start until tomorrow when the normal daily mean temp drops from 74.0 to 73.9.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Today’s normal high is 85F and that’s at its peak.  

Monthly normal is the 84F.

It is crazy though... like you I assume July average high is like 88F, but nope, 85F is the highest daily max.  So all those 90-91F forecast days are at least +5s or +6s.

Their highs are quite close to those at NYC - within a fraction of a degree.  Maybe all the trees in Central Park have an effect different from grass plus tarmac.   Of course, NYC minima are probably 5° or more milder than at BDL.

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9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Their highs are quite close to those at NYC - within a fraction of a degree.  Maybe all the trees in Central Park have an effect different from grass plus tarmac.   Of course, NYC minima are probably 5° or more milder than at BDL.

yeah they are pretty close - the peak hi/los this month are:

BDL 84.9/63.1

NYC 84.4/69.2

LGA 85.7/70.1

JFK 83.6/69.0

EWR 86.3/69.1

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No signs of big heat to start Aug. EPS and ditty’s favorite GEFS show a relatively normal look with core of heat in the SW.

good. let's keep it that way.

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Only about four weeks left for big heat. BDL averages about 1.5 90+ days post-Aug 21, and heat waves after Aug 21 happen about once every 7-8 years on average.

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34 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Only about four weeks left for big heat. BDL averages about 1.5 90+ days post-Aug 21, and heat waves after Aug 21 happen about once every 7-8 years on average.

Sounds about right.  I personally feel September will be warm but that is usually not hot after mid month.

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54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No signs of big heat to start Aug. EPS and ditty’s favorite GEFS show a relatively normal look with core of heat in the SW.

You’re gonna be pissed when well above happens homie.

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Although I don’t like the look.  What retrogrades returns.  2nd half of August could be the hottest part similar to July.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

You’re gonna be pissed when well above happens homie.

Just like he thought COC s would fly all Julorch with  s central US ridging. Instead we heading for top 3 warmest and record # of 90 degree days in the month. The next 60 days are all SE ridge / dews. Not high heat , just Bermuda blue .. dog days with little rain 

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7 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...we've always done 90s well. We just do them with more humidity than we used to.

Maybe up there, muggy summers are a part of growing up near the ocean

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28 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

101F forecast in London tomorrow.  Not too many homes with AC either. 

I hope that shit eases up some. I leave for London on the 5th and on to Belgium and Germany for vacation. I don’t want or need that crap. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Maybe up there, muggy summers are a part of growing up near the ocean

Probably more humidity for you guys too. You guys hit upper 70s dews now like it’s routine.

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Probably more humidity for you guys too. You guys hit upper 70s dews now like it’s routine.

It's not like it never used to happen.

 

network CT_ASOS zstation BDL var dwpf dir aoa thres 75 month all year 2019 dpi 100.png

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