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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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28 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Interesting rain activity here. Just sitting right overhead. Wish it was oes in february

It probably is ... just not February - 

what I mean by that is that it's the same mechanic for all intents and purposes...  We haven't set this sort of circumstance up in the winter in quite some time ( that I can personally recall...) but... a fresh cold polar high establishes a cryo flow over the water that is near saturation... and that air mass is forced to lift over land and you get these bonus snows... They look like stationary blogs in winter though. Here they're more cellular sorta lookin' on radar.

Only here, they summer taxing misty rains..

I remember ...I think it 1993-1994 ..we had that quite a bit in and prior to winter storms.  The storm its self may have been a nickl/dimer but we got like 12 to 18 hours of brochuring when the polar high wedged in before the storm. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Solid view, agree...even though the writing is on the wall. 

It certainly is.

I think the increasing moisture content and higher overnight mins even solidifies it....and the reasoning's and processes leading to this increase makes total sense. 

CO2 and I think H20 too(?) doesn't absorb s/w radiation very well...it absorbs l/w radiation emitted by earth...so at night when the Earth emits the l/w radiation it isn't being able to escape our atmosphere.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

And we'll be close to par on that come Monday.

I could see maybe 2 days of 90F+?  No way we get four.  

I dunno, it’s just local bias as we aren’t +5 for the month like a lot of spots...it’s been very pleasant and near normal (0.3).  We just averaged below normal for the past 4 day stretch.

Gonna get hot for Saturday for sure though.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

It certainly is.

I think the increasing moisture content and higher overnight mins even solidifies it....and the reasoning's and processes leading to this increase makes total sense. 

CO2 and I think H20 too(?) doesn't absorb s/w radiation very well...it absorbs l/w radiation emitted by earth...so at night when the Earth emits the l/w radiation it isn't being able to escape our atmosphere.

Need more electric vehicles on earth, fast.

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14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've always had a hypothesis...

Most of the temperature records (record warmth) has occurred since the AMO flipped in the mid 90's...and other global climate phenomena which is or what you would expect with a +AMO has occurred more frequently. 

My hypothesis is that once the AMO flips into the negative phase and after a period of time when the atmosphere responds accordingly...if we continue to see these extreme warmth signals and records being broken then there is absolutely no denying climate change due to global warming. 

 

 

We had a +AMO from 1930-1960. I'm sure things like Scoot mention factor into it, but it feels like we hit a tipping point with the GW. Now we have positive feedback mechanisms that continue to trend us in the warmer/wetter direction.

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It certainly is.

I think the increasing moisture content and higher overnight mins even solidifies it....and the reasoning's and processes leading to this increase makes total sense. 

CO2 and I think H20 too(?) doesn't absorb s/w radiation very well...it absorbs l/w radiation emitted by earth...so at night when the Earth emits the l/w radiation it isn't being able to escape our atmosphere.

Don't forget CH4. AOC wants to eliminate all cows or at least genetically engineer them to stop shitting. :(

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Need more electric vehicles on earth, fast.

I would love one of those.

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We had a +AMO from 1930-1960. I'm sure things like Scoot mention factor into it, but it feels like we hit a tipping point with the GW. Now we have positive feedback mechanisms that continue to trend us in the warmer/wetter direction.

There were also a quite a bit of record warm temperatures during that period too, right? 

But yeah, the positive feedback trending towards warmer/wetter is astonishing. Heck...I even think that is sort of influencing the teleconnector signals and eventually what we know or understand about certain things may not be truly accurate anymore 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Don't forget CH4. AOC wants to eliminate all cows or at least genetically engineer them to stop shitting. :(

Then they'll get all bloated up making cow tipping more difficult 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not all GW. You have spikes that are more explained by things like ENSO, AMO etc. But, there is an underlying trend overall for summers recently. 

"all"  ?  No.. of course not.

- nothing in nature is all though... 

> 50 %   ...?  I'd be willing to be the farm.  That's all that matters.  If the ballast of negative impact is one's fault... it's one's fault the total system is f'ed.  We cannot be lawyers and weasil our way out of culpability to this thing and crisis, because winning that debate leads inexorably to a very bad state of reality for the World.  

... I've read enough advance theoretical, peer reviewed papers, ones that frankly... fit theoretical meteorology,  elevating atmospheric gas constituency that are more proficient at storing thermal energy, causes increased capacity for WV in mass ...in turn.. rain, snow.... elevated lows to name a few. form ... to know that the noted increase in nocturnal lows all over the planet, as well as statistical rainfall anomalies all over the planet... are not happening because of ENSO, AMO...etc...  These WV-related elevated quotients are happening regardless of ENSO warm or cool phase... AMO was positive when this GW curve hockey-stick, and now...it's flipping negative and we still hockey stick... weee... So it's true in both cases... 

Seems there is a knee jerk tendency to refute this GW ... when in evidentiary, there is growing data base of events that are mathematically connectable to the spectrum of consequences being observed...  It's been a popularized mantra, then codified by populism narrative...   But I digress.. .sorry.  Anyway, there's definitely a ' counter-culture' to do so. This was clearly put into motion back in the 1990s.  The forefathers of the science ...man, were they ever neolithically incompetent in how to bring the concerns to the light without offending people's way of life.  If they had just not doomed everyone then, this row would have been avoided - I think.. .  

Because of that heredity...we are going to be suffering no-sayers WHILE humanity's bus is careening off the cliff of what probably is a directly related cocktail of cataclysmis that ultimately force population correction - that's the Sci fi dystopian extreme, granted... But, you know... if it does...  all of the off-set "plausible" denial statements will be etched onto the headstone of human kind like the names of fallen heros upon the Vietnam Memorial monolith down in D.C.. 

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28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm being partially tongue in cheek ...   They may be fine.   If you have information privy to the instrumentation that is real and reviewable, by all means.  

I just recall back in college that all those ob points were rounded - if they have some decimal equivalent improvement in finite measure techniques, awesome! 

Otherwise, I've seen too many obs vary at random times over the years ... like 60 degrees at one, and 110 degree directions at the other, during easterly gales... when a focused jet should have them all be locked at 90 ... That doesn't inspire confidence when one sees that.  Maybe things have improved... 

Most appear to have been replaced in the 2005-07 time frame, but they started as early as 2003 according to this schedule: https://www.weather.gov/media/asos/ASOS Implementation/IFW_stat.pdf

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16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Definitely clearing out with lower dews now.

Can see it nicely on visible. 

Looks like afternoon work event is saved. We had thought severe thunderstorms, high dews, high 80s a week ago. Now it's backdoor front and 70f. 

No a/c in this new building and 70 people expected. Maybe I won't sweat an embarrassing amount now. 

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14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The heat has been dialed back a tick for Sat. Looks like an ordinary two day heat spike in the heart of summer now.

98 is not ordinary for KBOS at least historically.  I remember long stretches when 93-94 would be hottest of the year.  Only 2001 on has it seemingly been so much hotter.

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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

98 is not ordinary for KBOS at least historically.  I remember long stretches when 93-94 would be hottest of the year.  Only 2001 on has it seemingly been so much hotter.

Mid 90s are being forecasted here. Pretty ordinary for peak climo but yes sure the warm sites will get close to 100 when a plane roars by. 

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50 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I could see maybe 2 days of 90F+?  No way we get four.  

I dunno, it’s just local bias as we aren’t +5 for the month like a lot of spots...it’s been very pleasant and near normal (0.3).  We just averaged below normal for the past 4 day stretch.

Gonna get hot for Saturday for sure though.

"close to par"

It's definitely been more anomalous further south. BTV is below normal on their torch HIX values YTD. BDL is only slightly below it YTD. And yes, I'm having fun with the ISU plots today.

image.png

image.png

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

...too small to read; won't load when clicking

Yeah that was weird...lets see if this works:

 

1936	98
1937	99
1938	94
1939	96
1940	95
1941	96
1942	93
1943	97
1944	101
1945	96
1946	96
1947	99
1948	100
1949	101
1950	93
1951	92
1952	100
1953	100
1954	95
1955	100
1956	97
1957	98
1958	93
1959	96
1960	93
1961	95
1962	92
1963	98
1964	97
1965	93
1966	97
1967	94
1968	98
1969	95
1970	94
1971	94
1972	94
1973	99
1974	95
1975	102
1976	95
1977	102
1978	99
1979	95
1980	99
1981	99
1982	98
1983	99
1984	98
1985	93
1986	95
1987	96
1988	99
1989	96
1990	93
1991	99
1992	92
1993	99
1994	97
1995	100
1996	91
1997	95
1998	93
1999	98
2000	92
2001	97
2002	101
2003	93
2004	93
2005	97
2006	98
2007	96
2008	95
2009	95
2010	100
2011	103
2012	97
2013	99
2014	93
2015	96
2016	98
2017	95
2018	98

 

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A lot of our ~100F heat is done with lower dews like 2011. Kick a trough through torched midlevels and that westerly flow compresses us into Furnace Creek hell. Hot Saturday was definitely an exception back in 75. So I wouldn't say a HIX of 110F is normal.

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Just now, dendrite said:

A lot of our ~100F heat is done with lower dews like 2011. Kick a trough through torched midlevels and that westerly flow compresses us into Furnace Creek hell. Hot Saturday was definitely an exception back in 75. So I wouldn't say a HIX of 110F is normal.

NAM also mixes out on Saturday, esp north of pike.

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I've never seen that before from that particular data source.   It's the NAM's FOUS (FRH) grid... 

 

BOS                                 LGA
36000697256 -2595 072416 82292317   36000726126 -6093 102009 81302417
42000815251 -0196 072716 80272318   42061857676 -9995 122519 78262316
48000863332 -1096 093010 80262217   48000927059 01095 112708 80262517
54000573930 -0996 092303 81312317   54000626240 00692 102607 81322417
60000574640 -1794 072207 82312519 

Those bold-raised fonts are the thickness ...  582 dm ... 581 dm... so on.. 

Having one is unusual...and rare. I've seen 580+ on one or two intervals, ...several times since the mid 2000's years ( re the other debate; I don't recall ever seeing thicknesses that high when this product was "ETA" ... way back whence, but that could also be the model physics too..).  I have never seen two intervals in a row over Logan ... or if I have, so infrequently that I don't recall. 

This is 5 intervals...back to back.  That's incredible.   

I remember some pig heat bombs modeled back in the day ... late 1990s we had a couple bad ones where the T1 was progged to be 34 C and 26 C at 900 mb ... those did not have these attending very high anomalous H500 thickness plumbs.  I'm wondering if this really is a DP thing...  Like perhaps the WV is inflating the thicknesses.. It makes some intuitive sense... Take that bottom most row on the left (BOS) ... 582 thickness... ooph... But, the T1 is "only" 31 C .. but the T2 is 25C ...That's an unusually stable look for that interval - owing the the general hot profile... But, I suspect that 31 C is held in check by ...essentially being under water.  It seems for 25 and 19 over top, that bottom number should be 34 C

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