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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ... I get it about the 99 versus 89 thing.   I was just musing with PF last week ... it's on my bucket list to walk off an airplane into 120 F ...  

It's no different than wanting to visit the Eiffel Tower, the Great Wall of China, the Pyramids...  the 72" snow on the level after compaction winter pack - ... 

In that same vein, to be able to amble around the town with the car dash at 104 or 106 knowing that in reality it's 101 clad, is just something to tell the grand kids. 

But most of all ... knowing is part of life - and one cannot really know something unless they're there.  We can always live vicariously through others but ...there's nothing like first hand accountability. 

Accept for thunderstorms ... I'm weird about that.. I'd rather be situated out side the CB's impact space so that I can see it's majesty against the back ground, and watch all the nerd cloud parcels bubbling away with electricity dancing inside and out of their nebular plumes.  Once underside... it's not that same as the cool appeal of a sideways cob-webbing snowfall, where you start to feel disappointed when you know it's ending. With bangers... I just want to get back into the sun so I can see the cloud again.. 

I think it was 111 F when I got off the plane in Vegas last August. Not quite the same but pretty damn hot for this NNE boy. We did see 119F in Death Valley later that week. 

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8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Barry totals were definitely a big bust. That's good though...obviously less flooding than expected. Kind of the opposite of what happened in Harvey when the totals were more than forecast. 

I wish I had been paying more attention to the PDS of QPF. I'm wondering if there was a signal for a higher likelihood for localized high QPF vs. widespread thanks to the drier air. 

I know it's Kevin's favorite but we have a long way to go with probabilistic forecasts. We still have a long way to go with the Saffir Simpson scale. Scott is right, that's a garbage excuse not to evacuate, and maybe more evidence that we should move to an impact scale that includes Saffir Simpson. They may have been right to not order an evacuation, but for the wrong reasons. 

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42 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That doesn't show all of BDL they have huge parking lots and buildings which I'm sure add to the heat.. planes are constantly going over my house at peak travel times.. I would say every 2 to 5 minutes..  

Eh..that’s zoomed out quite a bit. BDL isn’t that bad.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the euro 2m temps this high for us.

The op is an outlier in the ensemble spread however. For instance CON, going with 99 and the high member is 100, mean 96, and low 89. 

So the op is like a 90th percentile forecast. 

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The op is an outlier in the ensemble spread however. For instance CON, going with 99 and the high member is 100, mean 96, and low 89. 

So the op is like a 90th percentile forecast. 

So you’re telling me there’s a chance. 

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10 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Did you step on doggie doo and track it in the house today? Very angry. 

Your answers were about this subject indicate you are ascared of rocking the boat,  I get it but call me Trump again... there Hillary. Lol Nice diversion from the subject, pretty much right out of the playbook. Man you indoctrinated well. 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Your answers were about this subject indicate you are ascared of rocking the boat,  I get it but call me Trump again... there Hillary. Lol Nice diversion from the subject, pretty much right out of the playbook. Man you indoctrinated well. 

I have no idea what you are talking about. The forecast to me given all the guidance was fine. There are in fact areas of 20-24” of rain. However:

1) it fell N and W of Baton Rouge and NOLA thus limiting any potential flood there. 

2) it fell in a narrow area. 

Given how lopsided the system was, I’m not surprised. But, can’t fault the forecast.

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58 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Hot Saturday in reverse.  Hot Saturday was followed by a hellacious bd dropping Sunday afternoon temperatures to the low 60s.  Thursday this week looks chilly followed by heating up to Saturday’s crescendo.

Most welcome BD of my memory.  As of that Saturday evening, BGR forecast for Sunday was for near 100.  Waking up to 70° with sprinkles was a joy.

P&C has 100 at ASH on Saturday.

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27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your answers were about this subject indicate you are ascared of rocking the boat,  I get it but call me Trump again... there Hillary. Lol Nice diversion from the subject, pretty much right out of the playbook. Man you indoctrinated well. 

He prolly believes in the magic bullet theory , move along .

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