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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Models have kinda been all over the place after the weekend. Agree with Scoot though. Probably a delayed trough that’ll verify as a mild down. 

Davis Strait blocking and +PNA so it will definitely cool down. Tasty look if it were winter.

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12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

1/2 way thru July now.  Torchy month.  Running +3.7F at TAN. Only 2 days have been below normal.

ORH is at +4.0F.  Only 1 BN and that was a paltry -1.   However, no double digit positive departures, one +9.    A pretty nice month thus far.  This weekend we roast though

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

6z GFS is still 100F on Sat with W flow and a launching pad with 23C 850s. BOS probably won't be below 80F Friday night.

I know it's summer and all, but we have our annual BBQ this Sat and no AC in the house (other than bedroom). 90+ is pretty brutal when everyone is out on the deck. Makes one want to drink more. Gotta have plenty of water on hand. Is it supposed to be HHH or just hot?

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3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I know it's summer and all, but we have our annual BBQ this Sat and no AC in the house (other than bedroom). 90+ is pretty brutal when everyone is out on the deck. Makes one want to drink more. Gotta have plenty of water on hand. Is it supposed to be HHH or just hot?

An all-out HHH. Be prepared. 

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

An all-out HHH. Be prepared. 

There is a shot the big 19c + 850’s Stay to the S and Sw of lava rock and at 700’ he may be not thaat bad .

dews per gfs are mid 60’s early pm to 70 after evening for that part of Maine

Right now  I would say the goal posts are as high as 95@ 700’ to around 85 for Saturday w a likelihood of a high around 90 with upper 60’s dews 

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6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I know it's summer and all, but we have our annual BBQ this Sat and no AC in the house (other than bedroom). 90+ is pretty brutal when everyone is out on the deck. Makes one want to drink more. Gotta have plenty of water on hand. Is it supposed to be HHH or just hot?

Glad i'm just attending the wedding on Saturday and not in it, Going to be a scorcha.

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39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's tough to pull a +10 this time of the year. BOS's normal right now is 74F, so a 91/74 (yesterday) only nets a +9F.

Boston mean on Hot Saturday was 92.5 (102/83), only 0.5° above 7/22/2011 (103/81) but 2.5° above 3rd place.  Their 8/2 mean probably isn't far from that for yesterday.  In January, a day that's 20° AN qualifies as a torch but happens every few years.. In July/August it would set all time heat records. 

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9 hours ago, dendrite said:

GFS gone wild this weekend. Wow. Hot Saturday 2.0

HA!  

I was just thinking 'hot saturday' when I finally got a chance to look things over.  Probably not an analog though -  

Yeah, that's notable alright! 

Thing is... ( not that anyone asked or cares ) but I still don't like the look of the models.  It's good that the Euro and GGEM finally relaxed that ridic looking massive spatial trough they engineered over SE Canad up through the D. Straight regions of the hemisphere.  I mean ... man, it looked like late January 1994 ... in July!   Nope - ... so, that much was good/expected.  

But, the heat its self and it's parental circulation still seems a bit dice to me.  It'll work out, provided that razor's edge/no margin for error modeling can persist and verify. It's just hard to believe the models will pick up on such a fragile set up and no perturb it before it can happen.   Seems like we're trying to pull that off though, huh - 

But man ... talkin' + 14 on climatology on a tool that is heavily weighted to climate the farther out in time.  By the time you get D6/...7 ...seems that may suggest that the heat signal's gotta be pretty heavy.  interesting...  Unless the calculation for the GFSX MOS is changed  ... I dunno.  

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9 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Three straight days of 100+ at BOS, sure.

You and your staff are certainly already privy to the following ... 

But, this model's immediate ancestor seriously and embarrassingly gaffed last year's summer heat episodes with ungodly ... hell-bound top errors in the boundary layer.  

And it wasn't just heat... It blew it in some of those cold cyclone systems in March 2018 as well... having 3.5" of QPF in CCB, with temperatures of 39 over DPS of 32 - type absurdities.  

Question:   I read the PDF/demo of the then FV3' and how it was argued a better performer, but that performance appears to be focused in deep layer tropospheric steering and synoptic stretching/progressive corrections.  I'm not sure if any improvements in the BL thermal handling was included?    If not ... heh...  should we assume the heredity for suspect BL handling is still there??  

 

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thankfully a local and well respected forecaster from BDL hammers home the concept that the gfs is never considered for their analysis. Phew.

Yeah...so it's not gonna be hot ... "phew" ?

While I wouldn't necessarily trust the gaudier numbers ...particularly at this range, when things can tweak and limit it to just miserable as opposed to actually dangerous... I think maybe we should all still plan on a bad couple few days here ...  

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13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its outdoors and at a venue i have been before, Just need to work in some waters into the equation but i usually have my drinks with water anyways.

We attended an outdoor wedding on July 3, 2002, which had the highest mean temp I've recorded at my place since moving there in May 1998.  The wedding was early afternoon in South Gardiner at elevation 30' asl, totally in the sun and without the slightest breeze.  Everyone survived, but it must've been a near thing.

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The GFS 2m temps have been improved from last year. I mean it was trying to lop 20C onto the 850s last year to produce 110F 2m temps. Of course dews ended up overperforming as well which limits your heating potential. So 100s really didn't have much of a chance.. 22-23C with W flow and good mixing would get it done though barring 75-80F dews. It's all kinda moot except for the weenieness that is actually the century mark. If we were a celcius country we probably wouldn't oooh and ahhh until the temp hit the elusive 40C (104F). Anyway, it'll be brutally hot in some way, shape, or form. Whether it's 98F or 101F or 95F/77F.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The GFS 2m temps have been improved from last year. I mean it was trying to lop 20C onto the 850s last year to produce 110F 2m temps. Of course dews ended up overperforming as well which limits your heating potential. So 100s really didn't have much of a chance.. 22-23C with W flow and good mixing would get it done though barring 75-80F dews. It's all kinda moot except for the weenieness that is actually the century mark. If we were a celcius country we probably wouldn't oooh and ahhh until the temp hit the elusive 40C (104F). Anyway, it'll be brutally hot in some way, shape, or form. Whether it's 98F or 101F or 95F/77F.

So you don’t believe this has a good shot (40%?) to be muted / I.e big 850 heat shunted S in coming days ?

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Good point by Brian... 

It's like the old mantra " Don't focus on the eye of the hurricane "   ...sorta 

I mean, if it's 96/76 ... it doesn't matter if one's trophy has the 101 etched into it - 

Also, I'm not totally convinced these BL prognostic metrics are improved my self.   Take Thursday on the 06z version:  it's got 68 F at 18z, under 576 dm thickness no less ... over all of southern vt/nh/and interior mass and the coasts, due to what looks like a spurious overly 'bent back' surface pressure pattern.  A set up it certainly then googly gulps in chilly Atlantic air deep into the interior.  I just ...I dunno - 

The problem is, the antecedent periods don't support this happening ...so where does it come from...?  I think it's the model's thermodynamic handling causing too much viscosity in the BL from saturation - plausibly ...too much DP and or too dry of DP before modest advection takes place.  

I'm spit balling I admit, but Thursday looks dubiously too chilly given all ... I can understand Logan ..eastern coastal zones and some warm mitigation from SSE flow ahead of a diffused warm frontal structure(s) sure... but that appears to strain credibility and that's BL handling-caused imho.  

Tell ya what ...if it happens... mad kudos!

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Also, I'm not totally convinced these BL prognostic metrics are improved my self.

Well...it's like getting a D on test 2 after an F on test 1. An improvement, but you're still far from any academic accolades. lol

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well...it's like getting a D on test 2 after an F on test 1. An improvement, but you're still far from any academic accolades. lol

LOL  

fair enough -

btw, speaking of Wednesday already... the new NAM is a perfect day set bare-backed upon a leather seated 1976 Chevy Malibu -pre A.C. style..  

It has T1 of 28 C and 850s already over 18 C at 18z at Logan on a west wind... it'll be interesting to see what the GFS does but that's a wee-bit different. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually has thickness already 577 dm with 19.5 C at 850 at 00z Thursday... 

This model is interestingly anxious to get the heat cookin' despite being typically cooler - 

It actually tries to move a shallow BD into ENE at the end of the run after that s/w trough passes north of us around d3. Tries to pull 70s over 50s Thu afternoon with onshore flow.

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