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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So long as everyone knows it's ur fault when it's 63 on Ground Hog Day and the little fugger adds that he didn't see his shadow 

That could work if it was like 2/2/76, when BGR temps hit 57 with RA then dropped to 1.  (As the downtown parking lots flooded from water blown up the Penobscot estuary)

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So long as everyone knows it's ur fault when it's 63 on Ground Hog Day and the little fugger adds that he didn't see his shadow 

Oh you mean when the drunks from gobblers knob pull the gopher out of the stump after binge drinking all night? Got it.

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39 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Screenshot-20190714-075034-Gallery.jpg

MEX rip and read?

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KBDL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/14/2019  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SUN  14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21 CLIMO
 X/N  89| 62  88| 63  90| 70  88| 70  86| 71  95| 73  90| 63  85 62 85
 TMP  79| 70  78| 71  81| 76  79| 73  80| 76  85| 78  80| 70  76      
 DPT  61| 59  58| 61  63| 67  71| 68  70| 71  71| 68  65| 60  60      
 CLD  PC| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC      
 WND  14|  7   8|  4  10|  9   7|  5  10| 10  18| 15  12|  6   8      
 P12   5|  3   2|  3   2|  9  37| 45  51| 19  23| 30  22| 14  12 21 20
 P24    |      3|      3|     37|     65|     34|     49|     25    31
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1   4|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      3|      0|       |             
 T12   0|  0   1|  1   6|  3  21| 26  28| 10  25| 22  14|  8  11      
 T24    |  0    |  1    |  7    | 35    | 40    | 38    | 14          
                                                                   
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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea how can you beat yesterday mid July 85/61

 

Took my niece visiting from Poland on a Hudson cruise around Manhattan, 911 Memorial, and then up to the One World observatory. What a picture perfect summer day. This has been one of the nicest summers I can recall in a quite some time. 

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Mmm ... I don't like marginal set-ups/support  (synoptically) for expecting heat in New England. 

Completely different phenomenon ... but thinking iffy big heat synoptics for New England will ever succeed ... is similar to springs and BDs.  Anyone who thinks that will succeed is somewhere between naive and hard-headed. 

Heat in general ( and I'm not talking 91 F backyard variety  ... I mean big numbers) has too many reasons where IF it can it WILL fail. The models just aren't good enough to preclude where they should be doing so... May sound frustrated, and frankly.. it is.  But, it does stack up against statistics - there needs to always be a less correction factor for any warmth signal here.  Our region reserves warm busts for 32.1 in the winter.  

Having ranted ... yeah, it's funny that we are only D4 and D5 from the door stop of potentially big numbers and the Euro and GGEM are still trying to do that...

The GFS's a whole 'nother annoyance.  It's just gone right back to the May thing ... with that least excuse imaginable to carve out a lower Maritime trough and lock us in summer-death NW deep layer flow apparently as eternal damnation...   I don't trust that any more or less than the other idea...

I'd just got 87 to 92 and let the chips fall where they may...

 

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