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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro is probably overdoing the heat a bit as well as the following cold shot. It’ll probably be regular high end heat followed by a mild down. 93-97° with a brief day or two of low to mid 80s. 

EPS looks pretty typical,  hot and dry them hotter and more humid followed by tropical rains then a nice low humidity mid low 80s pattern develops. Last 2 frames out of order

download (13).png

download (14).png

download (15).png

download (16).png

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3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

12z EURO cools down after day 7. But before that we bake..

Hm, ...there are other models out there...  GGEM really just gets the heat started on D7 ... 8 and 9 are brownoutapolis up and down the I-95 corridor from PWM to DCA. 

Euro's huge r-wave amplitude looks suspect.  It may cool down beyond D7 ... but I'm not ready to believe that run has it right - it's wrong looking for a lot of reasons.  One, the wave length is stressing believe-ability at this climate calendar ... Two, the gradient is too weak really to support that long of a trough circumvallate covering eastern Lake/NE all the way to Greenland. Three, the Euro tends to drop the bottom out of the atmosphere between 100W and 70W at mid latitudes as a default D6-10s... Actually, it tends to over do it on ridging the other way, too...

I mean... yeah... GGEM is an unsavory go to but unfortunately, it fits the other factors better.  

 

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The Euro run looks like what I was trying to elucidate earlier.... contained in one run!

It's trying to concurrently run a GW apocalypse ridge while holding onto vestigial solar nadir/-AO ... I mean at the same time.  It ends up 600 dam heights over Nebraska with -2 or even -3 SD vortex over NS for its trouble.  Nah...sorry.. those fields are not likely to be that way at that time. 

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34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Isn't there snow in those particular elevations year round ...? 

To a degree.  I climbed mount whitney in August of 1982.  Snow in patches above 11k and solid above 12,500.  It actually thundersnowed where we pitched our tent at trail camp elevation 12,500.  Tough climb above that point and gasping for air once we hit 14,000.  I have a picture somewhere with me at the summit.  Hopefully I’ll find it sometime...

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Isn't there snow in those particular elevations year round ...? 

Not quite this extent, otherwise there’d be more glaciers around Tahoe.  A lot of those Sierra sites were like several 100s percent of normal SWE, taking a while to melt.

 

 

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Euro is probably overdoing the heat a bit as well as the following cold shot. It’ll probably be regular high end heat followed by a mild down. 93-97° with a brief day or two of low to mid 80s. 

Yeah agreed ... for now. i echoed theses sentiments in my usually logorrhea heh

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not quite this extent, otherwise there’d be more glaciers around Tahoe.  A lot of those Sierra sites were like several 100s percent of normal SWE, taking a while to melt.

 

 

Oh that's right.  Yeah I had forgotten they had a huge snowbomb year out there.  

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Torrential rain... this air mass can still produce some heavy downpours for sure.

Yet another day of storms igniting over Mt Mansfield and the higher peaks, then drifting downwind into town.

vJu1GRZ.gif

 

Now down to a comfortable 70F here with this rain cooled air. 

Crazy how warm it still is in the CT River Valley on this map... mid-80s?!

Even BOS is still 85F at 8pm... hot hot hot.

say00ps.png

 

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32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Torrential rain... this air mass can still produce some heavy downpours for sure.

Yet another day of storms igniting over Mt Mansfield and the higher peaks, then drifting downwind into town.

vJu1GRZ.gif

 

Now down to a comfortable 70F here with this rain cooled air. 

Crazy how warm it still is in the CT River Valley on this map... mid-80s?!

Even BOS is still 85F at 8pm... hot hot hot.

say00ps.png

 

83.9 here ugh  

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Not quite this extent, otherwise there’d be more glaciers around Tahoe.  A lot of those Sierra sites were like several 100s percent of normal SWE, taking a while to melt.

Correct.  Typically it melts off around Tahoe.  Max elevation is not all that high at like 10.8k and most peaks are under 10k. The end of last August I took the pic below in Desolation Wilderness near Emerald Bay, and there were some lingering patches around 9k or so.  Another pretty big snow year, but not as big as this year.

20180830_150257_HDR.jpg

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2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Furnace creek California  never dropped below 100 last night and reached 121 today... I seriously  think I would die..  how do people actually live like that? 

A low temperature above 100F is hard to understand for me, that's crazy.  I mean really think about that!

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34 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Can’t wait, Sorry Tip, Not really though.

F99C2191-27E8-4AFF-8277-9C445E84CBA3.jpeg

But you do realize don't you ... every time you wish Summer away ... even if in jest, we get a shit winter summarily.

Looks like no winter until 2030 thanks to Dryslut

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

But you do realize don't you ... every time you wish Summer away ... even if in jest, we get a shit winter summarily.

Looks like no winter until 2030 thanks to Dryslut

2010 comes to mind now that you mentioned a shit season, Enjoy your summer, Been here for 63 yrs haven’t missed a winter yet , Some good ones some not but that’s why we have avgs, I’m shooting for 64, Right now it’s Christmas in July, Most GF and wives are celebrating the season so I’m all in too.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

2010 comes to mind now that you mentioned a shit season, Enjoy your summer, Been here for 63 yrs haven’t missed a winter yet , Some good ones some not but that’s why we have avgs, I’m shooting for 64, Right now it’s Christmas in July, Most GF and wives are celebrating the season so I’m all in too.

So long as everyone knows it's ur fault when it's 63 on Ground Hog Day and the little fugger adds that he didn't see his shadow 

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