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July pattern(s) and discussion


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We'll see how it shakes out, but last summer had the brief dew wave around the 4th, a relaxation, and then it was dog days right through August and September. So there's plenty of time to go for it to turn into another swampazz summer. The extended euro looks like pretty big heat. That's a nice 22C plume of midlevel warmth coming in over the top from James Bay. I'm sure it'll change to some degree, but we have the big heat getting inside d6 now. So pick your poison...98/64 or 93/73. Maybe we can get some tropical remnants up here to muck up the heat potential for a day or two.

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48 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Sunday?  Sunday Night?

It's not last summer.  Last summer we were tracking the number of hours the Dp's were above 70, now it seems the goal posts have moved and we have to use 60s?  Again, where is the HHH except for brief windows?  It's not been constant since 6/21. 

Yeah last summer was a freak show in the dews department. If I remember, Islip doubled its all time record of hours with a >70 dew point. My walls and furniture were sweating. I even had to take a few antique tables to a restorer because the old glue had reliquified in the heat/wet and the legs had come loose.

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41 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think we all know by now that early next week will be low humidity. It's mid-week and beyond that is looking more swampy.

Like you said previously, will it last is the big question.  There's still plenty of time before September.  I think we'll have stretches of heat and higher Dp's but last summer was almost non-stop with 70+ dews.  I remember people posting graphs showing the hours and anomalous it was.  There's still plenty of time but it just does not look like that is happening.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Maybe just being real? Try it, its refreshing when real facts are presented.  Somebody asked for Euro dews for Mon AND Tues ? You can actually read these not the 2003 graphics Kev posted

 

download (9).png

download (10).png

Modelology isn't going to generate a cool down. It would have been a cool, dry summer if all of the fantasy Euro D10 posted were "facts".

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Hi res vis loop is neat looking with that backdoor moving toward the coast..   WPC's surface analysis has the boundary but their resolution is actually crisscrossing the axis of the vis imagery signature...

------

This tropical cyclone in the Gulf appears ... for the time being ... to be over-rated.   Hurricane ... really?   That's going to look bad if this doesn't.  And frankly... it doesn't look like it could.  It appears like some center is about to come on shore N of guidance over the next couple of hours ... near the delta of the Mississippi, as a mere open innocuous low cloud whirl. There is deep convection displaced far S but it is in no way shape or form part of this whirl that is evidenced on hi res sat.  ..Also, CB turrets closer to this low whirl are tipped and ripped S exposing there may be some shear there. Perhaps there is a different center that NHC is focussing ?   I dunno, but just using the lay-person internet sourcing this thing appears bust worthy... 

It matters... Because a more robustly designed feature in the initialization grids ... will effect the mid range entirely differently, vs one that's paltry and physically feeble ..ie, no momentum to conserve and all that.   One such way in which it effects the mid range is how/if big heat translates up into the NE U.S...  Heat delivery could fail anyway... but all else being equal, the prior runs were using the remnants to more than less 'block' the heat conveyor... This was more evident in the prior Euro runs, and in fact ...the 00z run looks absurdly too interested in holding this system tropical identity together - or something to account for why it explodes into near TS status passing S of CC after having parabolically traversed some 2,500 naut mi of land before emerging off the Del Marva later next week.  Doubt it... But, in doing so, it does block the heat for several days...  It's like a historic heat wave punch bowl with a huge cold turd stuck in it.   It could go down that way... I suppose ... but seems less likely. I almost think the GGEM run makes more sense ... particularly if that TC does in fact fail to attain the physical presence in the atmosphere.  It's solution is to just rain it out more than less in the Miss. Valley sort of 'fly in amber' style, and less effectively blocking - perhaps owing to a weaker TC coming on board.  Interesting...

 

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I really wish NHC would give a least some physical explanation that backs up statements like this,

" ... The modest northerly shear affecting the system should not hamper further development... "

Namely, why?  Who said and for what reason?  

I realize we live in a dumbing-down world that is increasingly less required to offer critical analysis and objective reasoning to validate points and conjecture and all... But, gee, this statement really does not presently appear to support what is being observed.   

That kind of low level cloud whirl, having deep convection displaced a ways off the center while there is virtually nothing on the windward/abutting shear side .. I dunno what to say.  It seems the ole, 'when it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, and waddles like a duck, chances are ...it's a duck'  theory of all things great and small seems to be a valid method of approach for this thing ...

And so,  without their explaining why shear should not affect the system, that bold statement above appears stupid

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16 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The discussion is always generated by the same individual who has an insatiable desire to be right 100 percent of the time. 

And the 15 of you take the bait every time. Anytime he mentions dews, 15 people post going crazy. Just an outsider browsing from time to time.

Who is more childish, the one person who makes a passing comment on dews, or the 15 people who can't ignore the comment, and instead, spend 2 hours bashing one person. It's bizarre. 

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

And the 15 of you take the bait every time. Anytime he mentions dews, 15 people post going crazy. Just an outsider browsing from time to time.

Who is more childish, the one person who makes a passing comment on dews, or the 15 people who can't ignore the comment, and instead, spend 2 hours bashing one person. It's bizarre. 

Because the majority of us are tired of the act.

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