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bluewave

July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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High of 90 here. 6th 90 degree day. Spent the morn, early afternoon at rockaway, missed any storms. same thing in the bx except for a brief shower so far.  Water temps at the Rockaways feel great, felt near typical peak warmth today. The forecast scared ppl off which made it even better without the crowds.

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Hm. We MCS? [mention=9582]NycStormChaser[/mention] [mention=682]Rtd208[/mention]
I think it weakens. But that is a ton of rain over PA. Hopefully we don't get into that because it would be flash flooding. It's only moving around 20 mph.
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3 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:
28 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:
Hm. We MCS? [mention=9582]NycStormChaser[/mention] [mention=682]Rtd208[/mention]

I think it weakens. But that is a ton of rain over PA. Hopefully we don't get into that because it would be flash flooding. It's only moving around 20 mph.

I don't know about weakening, more likely the strongest part of it will pass to our southwest at least that is how it looks right now. Heavy rain still a threat though.

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6 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:
31 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:
Hm. We MCS? [mention=9582]NycStormChaser[/mention] [mention=682]Rtd208[/mention]

I think it weakens. But that is a ton of rain over PA. Hopefully we don't get into that because it would be flash flooding. It's only moving around 20 mph.

Defitnitly. Many times I've seen quite an expansive precipitation shield in PA shrivel into a pixel as soon as it crosses the border into NJ

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High was 87. Dew point topped out at 81.

No storms of course, this being Long Island and all.

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Hot and dry incoming by mid-month.     GFS has a swarm of 90's.     If we can get to mid-July at the current +3, we could be on verge of a record month by the last week of the month.    Why not?   Everybody else is setting records.    Let's Burn Too! 

But this does not seem to support any really spectacular temps.:

2019070600_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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1 hour ago, NycStormChaser said:
2 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:
Hm. We MCS? [mention=9582]NycStormChaser[/mention] [mention=682]Rtd208[/mention]

I think it weakens. But that is a ton of rain over PA. Hopefully we don't get into that because it would be flash flooding. It's only moving around 20 mph.

Plenty of rain out here today with on and off convection.  Nice shelf cloud with the latest feature that moved through about 7:15pm. 1.10” on the day.  NWS has a FFW for my area.

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29 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Hot and dry incoming by mid-month.     GFS has a swarm of 90's.     If we can get to mid-July at the current +3, we could be on verge of a record month by the last week of the month.    Why not?   Everybody else is setting records.    Let's Burn Too! 

But this does not seem to support any really spectacular temps.:

2019070600_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

I won't mind it if we lose the humidity 

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

High was 87. Dew point topped out at 81.

No storms of course, this being Long Island and all.

89 here today. Missed all the rain. Sprinkler time 

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Today, New York City had its third 90° reading of the year. Parts of the region also experienced thunderstorms with drenching downpours.

Meanwhile, the historic heat continues parts of Alaska. Bethel recorded a high temperature of 93°. That set a new all-time record high figure. The old record was 90°, which was set on June 17, 1926. Port Alsworth Airport also hit 90° today.

For Anchorage where the temperature had reached a near-record 79° this afternoon, 2015 or later accounts for 85 daily record-breaking or record-tying high temperatures. Since 2010, that figure is 121 days. 2019, alone, has accounted for 11 daily record high temperatures and 6 daily record-tying high temperatures. Records go back to November 1953.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving.

The SOI was -1.35 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.368. Blocking will likely persist through at least the first week of July and continue beyond it.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On July 5, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.631 (RMM). The July 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.414.

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July.

Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. Based on the current guidance, the July 1-10 period is likely to have a mean temperature near 78.5° in New York City. That would be the 27th warmest first 10 days of July since daily records were first kept back in 1869.

Overall, July looks to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 60%.

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3 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Another 89F in the books here as well at 89.2F. 3rd 89F on the season. Still stuck at only 1 90F.

89.4 (89) for me. Only had 2 90F days to date.

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7/5


PHL: 91
ACY: 87
New Brnswick: 88
TTN: 88
TEB: 87
NYC: 86
LGA: 85
JFK: 83
ISP: 83
EWR: 83
BLM: 81

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7/6:

LGA: 93
TEB: 93
EWR: 92
NYC: 90
PHL: 90
ACY: 90
BLM: 90
New Brnswick: 89
TTN: 88
JFK: 87
ISP: 86

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With a high temperature of 81° yesterday, Anchorage has now had four consecutive days with maximum temperatures of 80° or above. That streak set a new record. The prior record was three consecutive days, which occurred June 15-17, 2015. The high temperature at Bethel was 95°, which surpassed the previous all-time record of 90° from June 17, 1926.

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On 7/5/2019 at 1:36 PM, dWave said:

They reached 90, that's incredible for them.

The record of consecutive 80+ was 4 I believe. 

Breaking an all time record by 5 is very impressive. Major heat (relative to normal) has been a common theme there.

Imagine a high of 111 in the Park.

Man the closest we came is July 2011 which was amazing in itself!  EWR reached 108, the Park got to 104 and it was 103 at JFK!

My thermo on the south shore of Long Island recorded a blazing 105.8!

 

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On 7/5/2019 at 1:45 PM, weathermedic said:

1pm Highest Dew Points from OKX OBS:

JFK-73

Wantagh-72

Newburgh-73

Atlantic City-75

Toms River-79

 

Well we certainly beat that today!  The last I checked JFK had a DP of 78!  Did they get to 80?

 

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Tie for lowest maximum temperature YTD of 93 at Newark in the last 30 years. So we continue to see the minimum temperature departures outpace the maximums. 

Newark July departure through the 6th

Max T....+2.6

Min T.....+4.6

Avg ......+3.6

June

Max T.....-0.2

Min T.....+0.8

Avg.......+0.3

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jul 7
Missing Count
1 2019-07-07 93 1
- 2015-07-07 93 0
- 2009-07-07 93 0
2 1998-07-07 94 0
3 2006-07-07 95 0
- 2003-07-07 95 0
- 2001-07-07 95 0

 

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Larry Cosgrove is still going with hot temps in his medium range/longer term discussions even going as far as saying 100 degree readings could perhaps get close to the big cities of the Mid-Atlantic/New England. He also believes it is worth keeping an eye on possible tropical development down in the Gulf over the next several days.

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I'm presently targeting the July 14th-19th period for the potential of a major heat wave in the Atlantic corridor. Weak convergence will continue near the dateline courtesy of walker cell LR forcing, proxies for NHEM blocking neutralize, and perhaps most preeminent is the reorganization of lower geopotential heights near Alaska [several standard deviation rise in the EPO progged], thereby forcing not insignificant height rises C/E CONUS. There could potentially be multiple days in the mid 90s [or higher in some areas] in the July 14th-20th period.

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Those mostly cloudy forecasts are busting thankfully.  Shaping up to be another nice weekend day

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

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30 minutes ago, LVwhiteout said:

Anybody else start noticing the shortening daylight? I know, I know, but it's a start!

Not me, sunsets are still roughly the same time as they were at the solstice.

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Funny how a 68 degree dew point feels “dry” following yesterday’s equatorial humidity.

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