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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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Extreme heat covered parts of Europe. High temperatures included: Angers, France: 105° (all-time record); Bordeaux, France: 106° (all-time record); Brive, France: 108° (all-time record); Chateaudun, France: 102° (monthly record); Chateauroux, France: 106° (all-time record); Cognac, France: 104° (all-time record); Dinard, France: 99° (monthly record); La Roche, France: 99° (monthly record); Le Havre, France: 99° (all-time record); Le Mans, France: 105° (tied all-time record); Limoges, France: 100° (all-time record); Nantes, France: 100° (monthly record); Poitiers, France: 104° (all-time record); Rennes, France: 104° (all-time record); and, Tours, France: 104° (tied all-time record).

Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 91% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.8°-64.8°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -1.54 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.525. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month.

On July 22, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.557 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.764. That is the 20th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. That surpasses the old record of 19 consecutive days during which the MJO was in Phase 1, which was established during the July 6-24, 2004 period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 96%. Most likely range: 78.7°-80.2° (2.2° to 3.7° above normal).

 

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JFK just experienced a first for July heavy rain and heat. This was the 2nd heaviest 2 day rainfall on record for July. But all the other top 5 years were significantly cooler.

Maximum 2-Day Total Precipitation 
for JFK INTL AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 3.69 1969-07-29 0
2 3.66 2019-07-23 0
3 3.51 1996-07-31 0
4 3.45 1997-07-25 0
5 3.42 2000-07-27 0

 

July 1969....75.0...-0.8....max...97

July 2019....79.1...+3.5...max...99

July 1996....72.2...-3.6....max...87

July 1997....74.6...-1.2....max...94

July 2000....72.4...-3.4....max...93

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Continuation of the July 2010’s above normal temperature departures 80% to 90% of the years.

July......EWR....NYC...LGA

2019....+3.4....+3.2....+4.0...so far

2018....+0.8....+1.1.....+2.4

2017....-0.1.....+0.3.....+0.7

2016...+2.5.....+2.2.....+3.7

2015...+1.6.....+2.3.....+1.8

2014....-0.4.....-0.4.......-0.4

2013....+3.5...+3.3......+3.8

2012....+3.4...+2.3......+3.0

2011....+5.3...+3.7......+3.0

2010...+4.9....+4.8......+5.4

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126293596909367301

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro weeklies are hot/dry starting next week on....

i have a hard time seeing any dry or prolonged dry period materialize.  bet on warm and wet and with the fast pacific flow nothing lingering more than 3-5 days.

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Historic heat scorched Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands with all-time national record high temperatures. All-time high temperatures in western Europe included: Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweilger, Germany: 104° (39.9°C) (new national high temperature record); Beauvechain, Belgium: 100°; Bierset, Belgium: 100°; Brussels: 99°; Den Helder, Netherlands: 95°; Dusseldorf, Germany: 102°; Eindhoven, Netherlands: 103° (39.3°C) (new national high temperature record); Eisenborn, Belgium: 97°; Florennes, Belgium: 99°; Gilze, Netherlands: 102°; Groningen, Netherlands: 97°; Kleine-Brogel, Belgium: 102° (38.9°C) (new national high temperature record); Nancy, France: 104°; Saarbrucken, Germany: 99°; Schaffen, Belgium: 102°; Thuilley-aux-Groseilles, France: 104°; and, Volkel, Netherlands: 102°.

More extreme temperatures are likely tomorrow. Paris will likely challenge and break its highest temperature on record. London could see the thermometer challenge its all-time record, though there is some risk that clouds could move in just before the record could be surpassed.

In contrast, numerous record low temperatures were recorded across parts of the Southeastern United States this morning. No monthly records were broken.

Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 99% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.4°-65.2°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -3.57 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.970. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month.

In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case.

Preliminary MJO data for July 23 was not available.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 98%. Most likely range: 78.8°-80.2° (2.3° to 3.7° above normal).

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Last 7 days of July are averaging 79degs., or 2.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +3.0[79.5].         July should end near  +2.9[79.4].

72.0* here at 6am.   73* at 7am.   74.1* at 8am.   76.4* at 9am.   79 5* by 11am.  80.6* by 1pm, with innocent cumulus to west.

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Where was this historic -NAO pattern during the winter? It’s getting ready to significantly drop again after setting the new record. The LGA 100 degree day coincided with a brief rise to positive along with the record breaking Pacific Northwest jet streak. Also notice how the far North Atlantic SST’s have rapidly risen to near record levels under this pattern.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1153756526630318081

NAO+ anyone? After being 88 days in a negative phase, the North Atlantic Oscillation has turned today to positive. This beats the previous record by almost three weeks!

2EC1531C-CD63-418D-B2CB-B4A8CFD4C9DF.thumb.gif.56b80382ebabf6a0a9cc086e9716fa8d.gif

7071AFC6-F2BE-470E-B851-8F54DDA4F775.png.a2ab4b5378fd2ea57b4740901ba45bf4.png

 

 

 

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