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bluewave

July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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5PM Surfin USA

 

LGA: 98
EWR: 97
TEB: 97
PHL: 97
ACY: 97
BLM: 96
New Bnswck: 96
ISP: 93
TTN: 93
NYC: 93
JFK: 92

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Even the heat is getting to the good folks over at Upton:

"

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Forecast area will remain at the southern edge of the westerlies
with broad upper ridging across the southern half of the country
merging with the subtropical high over the western Atlantic.
Anomalously warm heights aloft, deep westerly flow, and high
boundary layer moisture (high humidity) will result in dangerous
heat indices through early this evening. Even overnight, the
urban corridor and coastal sections will see dewpoints in the
mid 80s to around 90. While there will be some relief overnight,
it will remain a hazard for living premises that are not ventilated
well or do not have AC.
  • Haha 6

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Still 95/80/115 at almost 5:30 PM.

I’m from Queens so I’m used to 90’s persisting well past midnight, but Suffolk County normally begins to cool off around this time.

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1 hour ago, weathermedic said:

Even my room a/c is having problems keeping up with the heat (top floor) Have it set to 70 since last night, temp inside has risen from 70 this morning to 79 now.

Unfortunately the new R410a refrigerant really drops off it’s cooling efficiency above 90-95 and really drops above 100 degrees, where it wouldn’t even faze R22 until around 135 degrees. 

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2 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Looks like 96 is my high for the day.

 

Same here. 96.3F. Very hot/oppressive day. Tomorrow has potential to be slightly hotter with a higher launch pad. 

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1 minute ago, Isotherm said:

 

Same here. 96.3F. Very hot/oppressive day. Tomorrow has potential to be slightly hotter with a higher launch pad. 

I figured you were a lock for around 98 with your morning temps.  Agree on tomorrow, as long as the clouds don’t put a damper on the sunshine.

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Still 95/80/115 at almost 5:30 PM.

I’m from Queens so I’m used to 90’s persisting well past midnight, but Suffolk County normally begins to cool off around this time.

Yea still 91 at 6:45. Usually sea breeze knocked us back a bit to upper 80s. 

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1 hour ago, SRRTA22 said:

Even the heat is getting to the good folks over at Upton:

"

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Forecast area will remain at the southern edge of the westerlies
with broad upper ridging across the southern half of the country
merging with the subtropical high over the western Atlantic.
Anomalously warm heights aloft, deep westerly flow, and high
boundary layer moisture (high humidity) will result in dangerous
heat indices through early this evening. Even overnight, the
urban corridor and coastal sections will see dewpoints in the
mid 80s to around 90. While there will be some relief overnight,
it will remain a hazard for living premises that are not ventilated
well or do not have AC.

 

  • Haha 2

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Today’s heat probably most impressive on LI in its totality. Many areas 97-99, with dews 75+. That is rare.

we have been hotter, but generally when it’s drier. 

ISP had 96/77/111, that is very impressive, and touched 97. 

For city and NE NJ nothing special I guess, out here this was memorable for sure.

and point and click was too cool out here by about 3

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another 80 degree minimum for Newark and NYC...80 degree minimums are becoming the norm for our hottest days...

min/max.......dates...

81/90......7/03/1876

81/90......7/19/1878
80/95......7/07/1883
80/94......7/25/1885
81/91......8/11/1891
82/98......8/09/1896
80/94......8/10/1896
81/96......8/11/1896
81/95......7/18/1900

80/95......6/30/1901
82/100....7/02/1901
80/96......7/18/1905
80/95......7/19/1905
80/92......8/11/1905
80/87......7/23/1906
80/94......8/06/1906
80/90......7/05/1908
81/95......7/06/1908
84/93......7/07/1908
81/93......8/05/1908
80/87......8/06/1908
82/94......8/13/1908
84/93......8/14/1908
82/100....7/31/1917
82/98......8/01/1917
80/96......8/06/1918
82/104....8/07/1918
81/94......7/20/1930
80/98......8/02/1933
81/100....6/26/1952
80/95......7/16/1952
80/101....7/22/1957
81/95......7/23/1978
82/102....7/21/1980
80/96......8/08/1980
80/95......8/09/1980
80/95......8/15/1985
80/94......8/12/1988
80/99......8/14/1988
81/97......8/15/1988
80/100....7/08/1993
80/102....7/10/1993
84/102....7/15/1995
82/102....7/05/1999
83/101....7/06/1999
82/103....8/09/2001
82/95......7/03/2002
81/96......7/04/2002
80/95......7/30/2002
80/98......8/13/2002
80/99......8/13/2005
83/97......8/02/2006
81/103....7/06/2010
80/100....7/07/2010
80/97......7/24/2010
84/104....7/22/2011
83/100....7/23/2011

82/94......7/20/2015

80/96......7/23/2016

81/96......8/13/2016

81/92......8/29/2018

82/95......7/20/2019

.................................................................................

 

Newark N.J. 80 degree minimum days...

min/max...date...

80/97.....7/17/1968

80/90.....7/24/1972

80/97.....8/03/1975

80/98.....7/23/1978

81/101...7/21/1980

80/98.....7/09/1981

80/94.....7/10/1981

80/100...7/18/1982

80/98.....7/19/1982

80/98.....7/16/1983

80/97.....8/15/1985

80/95.....8/12/1988

80/98.....8/14/1988

81/99.....8/15/1988

82/105...7/08/1993

83/104...7/09/1993

84/105...7/10/1993

80/99.....7/11/1993

80/97.....7/12/1993

82/104...7/15/1995

81/103...7/05/1999

82/102...7/06/1999

80/99.....8/01/1999

82/101...8/08/2001

82/98.....7/03/2002

81/100...7/04/2002

81/96.....7/30/2002

80/102...8/13/2005

81/100...8/02/2006

80/101...8/03/2006

80/98.....6/28/2010

81/103...7/06/2010

82/99.....7/24/2010

86/108...7/22/2011

86/102...7/23/2011

82/100...7/19/2013

80/97.....7/20/2015

80/98.....7/23/2016

80/97.....8/14/2016

80/99.....7/20/2019

....................................................

 

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An oppressive day concluded with widespread readings at or above 95° in the East. Select high temperatures from the eastern third of North America included:

Allentown: 95°
Atlantic City: 99° (old record: 97°, 1991)
Baltimore: 100°
Bangor: 93°
Burlington: 94°
Boston: 97°
Chicago: 95°
Cleveland: 95°
Concord: 96°
Detroit: 96°
Harrisburg: 97°
Hartford: 98°
Islip: 97° (tied record set in 1997)
Lynchburg: 98°
Montreal: 91°
New York City-JFK: 99° (old record: 96°, 1991 and 2013)
New York City-LGA: 99°
New York City-NYC: 95°
Newark: 98°
Norfolk: 100°
Ottawa: 93°
Philadelphia: 97°
Poughkeepsie: 96°
Raleigh: 95°
Richmond: 98°
Roanoke: 99°
Saint John, New Brunswick: 91° (old record: 86°, 1991)
Salisbury: 96°
Sterling: 98°
Toronto: 90°
Trenton: 96°
Wallops Island: 98° (old record: 94°, 1991 and 2010)
Washington, DC: 97°
Wilmington, DE: 96°
 

Tomorrow will feature additional intense heat. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could again see high temperatures of 95° or above with some places perhaps reaching 100°. High humidity will lead to excessive real feel temperatures and dew point figures above 75°.

Following this weekend, another bout of extreme heat will likely develop over western Europe. Already, some locations in France recorded temperatures in the 90s today. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week.

Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied >99% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 84% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.7°-65.3°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -2.83 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.206. Nevertheless, this positive fluctuation will likely be short-lived. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month.

On July 19, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.159 (RMM). The July 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.140. That is the 17th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 17 consecutive days was July 6-24, 2004 (19 consecutive days).

As had been signaled by the MJO, the second half of July is experiencing a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings that had developed during the first half of the month in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.

Much of the region is in the midst of a heat wave or on the cusp of one. Baltimore has now had 9 consecutive 90° or above days and Washington DC has had 10 consecutive 90° or above days. Peak temperatures in the northern Middle Atlantic region have included: Baltimore: 100°; Boston: 97°; Islip: 97°; New York City: JFK-99°, LGA-99°, NYC-95°; Newark: 98°; Philadelphia 97°; and, Washington, DC: 97°.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 85%. Most likely range: 77.8°-79.9° (1.3° to 3.4° above normal).

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1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

I figured you were a lock for around 98 with your morning temps.  Agree on tomorrow, as long as the clouds don’t put a damper on the sunshine.

 

I thought we would have been slightly higher as well, 97-98F. Clouds weren't an issue here. Must have been a pocket of higher 850's over Long Island today.

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I can see the clouds from the small cell in NW Jersey ...giving me hope that we might see some rain...even though it will probably fizzle lol..

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10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

87/77/99 now and no wind at all.

torrid night coming 

88/77 still here 

LGA still 95

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