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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Rain just keeps drying up as it pushes east past NYC, and what's left seems to want to rain itself out where it is. Not optimistic I'll get more than a period of moderate-ish rain. Seems like we're going into typical coastal summer drought mode. 

Seems like it's starting to make a push northward now

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3 hours ago, doncat said:

Yeah the problem wasn't fixed on the new rollout... They took the UHI and over did it, it seems.... Anyway 1.11" here so far today.

It's extremely pronounced on the anomaly maps. The entire region can be below average and the cities will be bright red, and that's with 1981-2010 averages. <_< 

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9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think it's low. EWR might have some shot. A better shot might exist in August (except for tree-covered Central Park).

Yes lately we've been getting our hot weather on a wind that comes off the ocean, back in 2013 JFK actually recorded a 100 when Central Park did not.  We haven't seen that kind of summer here lately.

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8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Rain just keeps drying up as it pushes east past NYC, and what's left seems to want to rain itself out where it is. Not optimistic I'll get more than a period of moderate-ish rain. Seems like we're going into typical coastal summer drought mode. 

How is the ocean doing this now- the waters are much warmer now.  We did get close to an inch of rain in SW Nassau

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Weather stations in parks or more rural areas are fine. But the sensors must be in a clearing so they are not blocked by trees. The big error was moving the thermometer in NYC from an open area of the park to under a canopy. 

 

 

Chris, any idea why they moved it?  That right there means they cant go back to look at data from before since the new location breaks the consistency of over 100 years of record keeping

 

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19 hours ago, frankdp23 said:

When scientists measure out temps from 100s of years ago (tree rings, etc), the way the central park data is currently is probably more representative to how the vast majority of the planet was (overgrown and not de-forested) .  Do we add 2-3 degrees from past temps to match how we measure temps now? 

Tree ring temperature measurements aren't anywhere near as accurate as meteorological equipment- I'd bet their margin of error is more than 2-3 degrees.  Tree rings are used more to differentiate different climate eras rather than measure actual temperatures.  

In any case, moving the equipment means older data from when the station first got established can not be used- so the only scientific way to do it is to begin record keeping from 1996- the year in which the equipment was moved.  

 

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20 hours ago, bluewave said:

September is quickly becoming our 4th month of summer. Notice how the last 8 out of 9 September’s at LGA averaged at 70 degrees or higher. Big jump since the 1980’s. Several recent Septembers were as warm or warmer than June.

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for LA GUARDIA AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Season
Mean 73.2 80.0 77.9 71.6 75.8
2010 76.0 82.8 78.6 72.5 77.5
2011 72.7 80.4 76.0 70.7 75.0
2012 72.9 80.4 78.7 70.7 75.7
2013 74.0 81.2 75.8 68.1 74.8
2014 72.5 77.0 75.1 70.4 73.8
2015 71.3 79.2 79.3 74.1 76.0
2016 73.6 81.1 81.6 73.8 77.5
2017 73.6 78.1 75.4 71.5 74.7
2018 72.9 79.8 81.0 72.8 76.6
2019 72.8 80.2 M M 76.5
Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for LA GUARDIA AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Season
Mean 71.4 77.0 75.6 68.4 73.1
1980 70.1 78.6 78.1 70.4 74.3
1981 72.6 78.1 75.7 66.4 73.2
1982 66.8 76.3 72.3 66.9 70.6
1983 72.5 78.3 76.7 70.6 74.5
1984 73.6 73.5 76.2 65.6 72.2
1985 68.8 76.6 75.7 70.7 72.9
1986 71.4 76.1 73.4 67.9 72.2
1987 72.9 77.6 74.0 68.1 73.2
1988 72.0 78.6 78.8 67.8 74.3
1989 72.9 76.1 75.3 69.7 73.5

 

 

Wasn't there a September in the 80s that was really hot?  1983 I think.  That entire year was really hot and rainy!

 

Wow 1980 and 1983 really stand out for consistent heat in the above list.

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22 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s not laziness. First of all they are out in Brookhaven. Second, moving the sensor would screw up the data set. 

Honestly, I could easily go and prune off the vegetation. But I’d be afraid of it getting back to my employer if I get caught.

Bring on the rain tonight, I’m really pulling for this one. I like the setup, in comparison to the past few. I think this is a region wide .5” plus.

They already screwed up the data set by moving it in 1996 :(  I was talking about it in my previous posts.  I also remember a tangible change in Central Park's rankings compared to the other stations beginning after 1995.  Now I see their temps are often lower than JFK's (and lower than the south shore of Nassau county) in the summer.

I loved this rain we got!  I thought it was supposed to rain until 4 am though.  Oh well, at least we got close to an inch!  I wonder when we'll get another rain like this?

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Next 8 days are averaging 81degs. now, or 4.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +3.1[79.0].     Should be +3.7[79.8], by the 20th.

GFS is still basically all 90's for the next 16 days.    EURO says it ain't gonna happen that way.  Example: July 20-102* versus 76*!

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How is the ocean doing this now- the waters are much warmer now.  We did get close to an inch of rain in SW Nassau

Here there was 0.4-0.5”. The convective activity still fires up inland in most cases and by the time it gets here and pushed east the sun sets and the instability wanes. Also often in the summer storms fire on the sea breeze fronts which are slightly inland, and die off when the daytime instability decreases. It’s very typical for places near the shore to go into a mini drought in the summer here. 

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7th latest date since 1980 that Newark hasn’t had any major 95 degree or higher major heat. It has been a challenge with the continuing record longest -NAO, clouds, rain, and onshore flow. Newark warmest temperature YTD is 93 degrees. The warmer minimum temperatures continue to lead the departures. 

July so far at at Newark

Max T...+1.9

Min T....+3.4

Avg......+2.6

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
1985 08-14 (1985) 96 08-15 (1985) 97 0
2009 08-10 (2009) 95 08-17 (2009) 95 6
1998 07-21 (1998) 95 07-22 (1998) 98 0
2015 07-19 (2015) 98 09-08 (2015) 98 50
1982 07-17 (1982) 95 07-26 (1982) 95 8
1980 07-16 (1980) 96 09-02 (1980) 98 47
1990 07-04 (1990) 97 07-09 (1990) 96 4
2014 07-01 (2014) 95 09-06 (2014) 95 66

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasn't there a September in the 80s that was really hot?  1983 I think.  That entire year was really hot and rainy!

 

Wow 1980 and 1983 really stand out for consistent heat in the above list.

Yeah over 80". 2 feet alone in March and April 

September was a relatively dry 4.62" but quite warm

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3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days are averaging 81degs. now, or 4.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +3.1[79.0].     Should be +3.7[79.8], by the 20th.

GFS is still basically all 90's for the next 16 days.    EURO says it ain't gonna happen that way.  Example: July 20-102* versus 76*!

What model do you use for your next 8 days in these posts? 

GFS seems to have a major urban heat issues.  The times it forecasts 100s a few days out is unreal.

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16 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

What model do you use for your next 8 days in these posts? 

GFS seems to have a major urban heat issues.  The times it forecasts 100s a few days out is unreal.

I use the GFSx.     It has a normal cut now of 68 to 85.     On the WeatherBell site the GFS T Graphic, it is virtually all 90's for the next 16.     Last June 28 it showed all 90's and five 100's in a row, twice eclipsing the 106 degree All-Time-Record.       Reality was a high of 96* during the period.     It is as whacky as a Jack Nicholson character, and nurse Ratchet is busy preparing an especially efficacious elixir ot Thorizine and Lithium right now! lol

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Despite the clouds temps still warm and some of the warmer spots may snatch another 90 especially if skies clear a bit more later this afternoon.

 

1PM;

ISP: 87
ACY: 87
New Brunswick: 86
PHL: 86
BLM: 86
JFK: 85
TEB: 85
LGA: 85
TTN: 85
NYC: 84
EWR: 84

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

vis0.gif

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