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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Absolutely! When it doesn’t rain my job becomes ten times harder. I have dozens of planters on campus that require hand watering. And huge terraces that were designed (without my input) an irrigation system. I wish I could posts pics but it always says attachments full.

That heat potential next week is awful. I had a feeling sooner or later we would get some real heat. And moving forward that 110 degree day will eventually happen...

Hopefully, the front and the tropical moisture feed down to developing Barry can deliver some much needed rainfall. 

 

F285DEA4-3024-42F3-A962-59C93AD7D61B.png.e3b3b20e9f10cc7a981ff481a795f389.png

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13 minutes ago, Cfa said:

89 is my max so far, same as yesterday.

Currently I have four 89’s and three 90+’s.

I’ll be starting a petition to lower the heat wave threshold from 90 to 89.

It’s funny how wind direction affects temps out here. I was 89 yesterday too, and some days you are hotter than my location. 

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9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

same here-doesnt take long to dry out the first few inches of topsoil in July

Yeah that’s exactly what it is. The top few inches. Trees and established shrubs and perennials have no problem.

Today feels like the hottest day of the week on the uws. It’s not hard to hit 90 in Manhattan with sunshine in July.  

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37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

same here-doesnt take long to dry out the first few inches of topsoil in July

2nd year in a row with a dry start to July. Last year ended with a deluge.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Jul 9
Missing Count
2019-07-09 0.06 0
2018-07-09 0.24 0
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Mt. Holly and Upton Ref: tomorrow.

It also looks like the very warm weather will continue and even get hotter over the next several days.

 

Mt.Holly:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
  An active period of weather is expected Thursday and Thursday night.  
  Starting on the synoptic level, a de-amplifying shortwave trough  
  will be moving through and lifting northeastward out of the Great  
  Lakes by Thursday morning. At the surface, an accompanying surface  
  low sits in the left exit region of a respectably strong (for the  
  season) upper jet streak of around 90 kts. It will track out of  
  southern Ontario and into Quebec on Thursday. A cold front trails to  
  its south and will slowly approach through the day. The mid-Atlantic  
  will be left in a warm sector air mass. Cloudiness and increased  
  moisture will keep our temperatures a bit cooler than previous days,  
  but with higher humidity, as will be discussed below. 
   
  By early Thursday morning, a light but steady southerly surface flow  
  will have developed in the modest gradient between the departing  
  high pressure and the approaching frontal system. Strengthening  
  southwesterly flow will also develop through the remainder of the  
  low and into the mid-levels. This will lead to a truly impressive  
  surge in PWAT values early tomorrow, from the mundane values of  
  around 1.25" today to a tropical 2-2.25" or even slightly higher by  
  late tomorrow. What appears to be aiding in this large and rapid  
  moisture surge is a direct connection to very rich moisture in the  
  Gulf of Mexico associated with a developing tropical cyclone there.  
  So the air mass ahead of this frontal system will have a definite  
  tropical fingerprint to it.  
   
  Given these ingredients, we are primed for locally heavy rainfall  
  tomorrow. The front itself is fairly progressive, and expect there  
  will be either a solid or more likely broken line of showers and  
  storms associated with the actual front which will move along fairly  
  steadily. What`s more concerning is the rapidly moistening and  
  uncapped environment ahead of the front, which would seem to favor  
  additional showers and thunderstorms developing well ahead of the  
  front tomorrow afternoon even as forcing is modest. Unlike recent  
  heavy rain events, the vertical wind profile tomorrow is not nearly  
  as stagnant; storms that develop will move, at least gradually.  
  However, more of a concern tomorrow will be training and  
  backbuilding convection within an air mass with deep moisture  
  funneling into it. Moderate deep layer shear profiles are supportive  
  of dominant multi-cellular activity with potential for back- 
  building, training, and regeneration especially given the high air  
  mass moisture values. Thus, localized flash flooding appears  
  possible especially given continued high soil moisture anomalies  
  from this wet spring and early summer. Strongly considered issuing a  
  Flash Flood Watch but after discussion with neighboring offices and  
  WPC will defer that decision for now and continue to carry the  
  mention in the HWO. Still a little hard to say what specific areas  
  will see the greatest threat, with a wide spread in guidance.  
  However, the fact that many of the hi-res models are showing QPF  
  bullseyes of 2-3" or greater is concerning, so this will bear close  
  watching. 
   
  The other concern tomorrow, while probably less of a threat than  
  excessive rain, is severe weather. Cloud cover may be fairly  
  extensive during the day, which would act to limit instability, but  
  guidance is generally supportive of at least 1000J/kg of MLCAPE  
  building by afternoon, perhaps up to 2000J/kg. Deep layer bulk shear  
  will be slowly increasing but still only moderate, not much better  
  than 30 kts from 0-6km during the day. Moisture obviously is not in  
  question. Main concern will be damaging wind gusts within multi- 
  cellular convection, especially if instability is greater than  
  expected. However, attention is also drawn to the southerly, or  
  perhaps even locally south-southeasterly, surface flow. This will  
  act to enhance low level veering given southwesterlies aloft, so  
  some rotation is possible in storms that develop and cannot rule out  
  a brief tornado especially if we see any fleeting supercellular  
  structures. Low LCLs associated with tropical moisture also lend  
  some support here. Latest SPC Day 2 outlook/discussion covers this  
  well also. Greatest severe weather threat will be across central and  
  western portions of the region. 
   
  Overnight, attention will turn more to the frontal line itself.  
  Given the overnight timing and what may be an increasingly worked  
  over atmosphere, that line will probably be fading out as it  
  approaches, and expect that if we have problems with flooding or  
  severe weather tomorrow it will happen more in the late afternoon  
  and evening as opposed to overnight when the front approaches.  
  Still, showers or storms are possible throughout the overnight as  
  the front will not move through until very late at night or more  
  likely on Friday. Locally heavy rain will remain possible in any  
  convection until the front passes. Warm and very humid overnight  
  since we remain in the tropical air ahead of the front. 
   
  && 

Upton:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heights begin to fall Thu as a trough moving through the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley approaches. A warm front will also be
approaching from the southwest. Cloud cover will increase and
there could be a few isold showers mainly W of NYC into the
early aftn. Shower/tstm chances increase thereafter into Thu
night as the front approaches, and PW will be increasing with
weak shear, thus any tstms that develop could be slow-moving
heavy rainers, in particular from late evening into the
overnight after midnight as a 25-30 kt H9 LLJ moves across.
Could see some isold flash flooding, especially with any storms
that move across the NY/NJ metro area and into southern
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. This threat not expected to
be widespread, and WPC forecast in general agreement with only
a Day 2 marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the metro area
north/west.

High temps on Thu will be limited by cloud cover, with most
areas seeing 80-85, and upper 70s for the south shore of Long
Island and coastal SE CT. Thu night will be muggy, with lows in
the upper 60s/lower 70s and dewpoints in the same ballpark.

Upper troughing lags behind on Fri, so have sided with slower
progression of the cold front per NAM, with continued likely
showers/tstms out east into the morning. Activity should be
more scattered into the afternoon and late day with the
approaching cold front as mid levels dry out but blyr remains
moist.

High temps on Fri should reach the upper 80s/lower 90s in NE NJ
and NYC, and with high dewpoints the heat index could touch 95
in in parts of urban NE NJ. Highs just to the north/east will be
mid 80s, and lower 80s across the forks of Long Island and SE
CT.

There will be a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches
on Thursday.
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is likely late Thursday through
Thursday night, with additional rainfall possible Friday.
Rainfall totals of 3/4 to 1 inch are possible with locally
higher amounts, with a low risk for localized flash flooding,
mainly across the lower Hudson Valley into NE NJ. Localized
urban flooding is also possible.

&&
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5 hours ago, uofmiami said:

3rd 90 degree day for me.  Hit 89.5 so far, we'll see if that holds as the daily high.

 

45 minutes ago, doncat said:

Finally  a 90° hi after several 89's.

 

Yet another swing and miss here due to smoke and cloud filled skies. 4th 89F day at 88.8F. So still stuck at only 1 single 90F day thus far.

 

 

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The first 10 days of July featured above and much above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. That theme will likely continue through July with only a few breaks. In addition, the prospect of at least one heat wave in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England region could increase during the second half of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time.

The SOI was -8.93 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.299. Blocking will likely persist through July 20.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast.

On July 9, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.622 (RMM). The July 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.909.

As had been seen from the prior MJO and SOI data, the first 10 days of July proved much warmer than normal (mean: 78.9°; 2.9° above normal; tied with 1934 for the 25th warmest July 1-10 period) and drier than normal in the region (precipitation: 0.06" 1.25" below normal). Since 1974 when MJO data was first reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days were followed by warmer and drier than normal weather during the first 10 days of July.

Since 1994, cases when the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period saw July 1-15 temperature average approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City.

The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature just below 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 70%.

 

 

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15 hours ago, bluewave said:

The tropical remnants act like a heat and humidity pump. Actual temperatures in the upper 90’s with dewpoints into the upper 70’s.

 

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EBB3FD48-E5D8-470F-8D46-4EDA58D662AC.thumb.png.c25d1bedf7a8c53142cff1ac25f76994.png

Yeah but that's not what I was talking about. I'm wondering where the cold balance is. Somewhere there ought to be cold moving south in the hemisphere to balance out the heat pumping north. It's just a weird theory that I've been playing with for a while.

 

9 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:

The 1:30 PM Day 2 update by the SPC moves both the Slight and Marginal risk further east for parts of Pennsylvania and Upstate New York. 

B38oRbQ.jpg

 

 

I'm an hour south of Buffalo at the moment and they were talking about this in the bar at dinner. 

 

I had an observation today that didn't surprise me but was cool to confirm. The Great Lakes have a very similar stabilizing influence over where the t-storm line pops in the afternoon as the ocean and LI Sound do. It was beautiful along the lakeshore this afternoon in the Buffalo area but you could see the storm line inland. When I headed south the elevation jumps from lake level to 2k in no time and there were storms bouncing around, a few wet spots, but huge towers a few more miles east the whole drive. 

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Met summer is June, July and August, so he's right, that's about half over.

By meteorological standards, the seasons change when we flip the calendar on our wall.  That's why I think the Astronomical guidelines are more realistic, but that's just me.  

How far we're into the season is not overly significant anyway, because just as it can remain cold right into April, we can torch straight through October and beyond.  

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1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

By meteorological standards, the seasons change when we flip the calendar on our wall.  That's why I think the Astronomical guidelines are more realistic, but that's just me.  

How far we're into the season is not overly significant anyway, because just as it can remain cold right into April, we can torch straight through October and beyond.  

Yes but September and October this year in my opinion won’t torch, instead they will be cooler than other years. You do have the remainder of July and August to torch. Plenty of torching here. It hasn’t been terrible this year it’s been a dry heat type of summer thank goodness

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