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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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Next 8 days averaging 83.5degs., or 7degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.8[79.0].       Should be  +4.2[80.5], by the 24th.

GFS Meteogram still in a love affair with the 90's-----13 out of the next 16 days, with 3 100's for good measure.   Yes we get a cooldown in 9 days, but it won't last.

76.4* here at 6am.   77.4* by 8am.  79.0*, at 9am.  Finally overcame sea breeze?, and hit 80 0* at 10:45am.    83.6* by Noon.

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I put together a list of dewpoint and heat index records around the area. 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&month=all&var=max_feel&dpi=100&_fmt=png

JFK dewpoint.....84....8-13-16.....heat index....115....7-5-99...7-22-11

EWR dewpoint...84....7-15-95.....heat index....129....7-15-95

4F3C87C9-12E3-4B32-8470-6BE8ECDBBDA8.thumb.png.2d15477f9eda676fb3281efc10810972.png

A80946A2-1B45-422C-ACE8-766759E602E5.thumb.png.0628f5646ed9c523fe6dcac6fe0d7f6b.png

C8705FA6-B1AA-44C7-B107-EF2007469CA9.thumb.png.9b654c3d71a5564422aeb00614eda13c.png

60D2E123-0B37-4017-91BA-A7E09A3DA9A2.thumb.png.de13605d1a7b254f23ca18fa37f4e5de.png

 

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 83.5degs., or 7degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.8[79.0].       Should be  +4.2[80.5], by the 24th.

GFS Meteogram still in a love affair with the 90's-----13 out of the next 16 days, with 3 100's for good measure.   Yes we get a cooldown in 9 days, but it won't last.

76.4* here at 6am.   77.4* by 8am.

These stats are useless. Yesterday the Park was 85, coolest in the entire metro area. So the 2.8 is not representative of true departure.

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Saturday is the first time I ever saw the Euro forecast an 86 dewpoint in the Northeast region. The Euro shows numerous days coming up with potential dewpoints of 80 or greater. It looks like a combination of the recent multi-year historic dewpoint spike, record soil moisture over portions of the US, and the tropical moisture surge around and after Barry.

8ED18120-9E5A-464B-82D7-E918F31872BC.thumb.png.ed357450a1f0b6b968386bc035b35bf7.png

 

 

Saturday may be the hottest HI day in decades. 100/80? Jesus. 

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Already clouds from Barry's remnants pushing through OH and towards PA.  WIll be interesting to see how much rain and how high temps can get with mostly cloudy conditions Wed/ THu and 850 temps in the 22-24 range.

vis0.gif

 

vis0.gif

 

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7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Spot on.  Bet the under, but it'll be a hot weekend regardless.

Temps and dews have been under forecast all week (other than the park). When heat comes in July you buy, in August you sell. I go with the sun angle theory, models underestimate surface warming in mid summer, over estimate in late summer. But what do i know

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Saturday is the first time I ever saw the Euro forecast an 86 dewpoint in the Northeast region. The Euro shows numerous days coming up with potential dewpoints of 80 or greater. It looks like a combination of the recent multi-year historic dewpoint spike, record soil moisture over portions of the US, and the tropical moisture surge around and after Barry.

8ED18120-9E5A-464B-82D7-E918F31872BC.thumb.png.ed357450a1f0b6b968386bc035b35bf7.png

 

 

if this holds we'll have higher heat indices than in 2011

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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Temps and dews have been under forecast all week (other than the park). When heat comes in July you buy, in August you sell. I go with the sun angle theory, models underestimate surface warming in mid summer, over estimate in late summer. But what do i know

Agreed, we both know very little LOL.  It will be quite memorable if mid 80 dew points verify in PA and NJ.

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38 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Temps and dews have been under forecast all week (other than the park). When heat comes in July you buy, in August you sell. I go with the sun angle theory, models underestimate surface warming in mid summer, over estimate in late summer. But what do i know

I agree.  Averages start to drop off fairly steadily once past 8/10 or so as does sun angle and loss of daylight...

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1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said:

The 6z GFS is a lot less aggressive with dews, low to mid 70s across the area. The 6z also cuts the worst heat off after Saturday, I'm interested to see if that becomes a trend or if its just a blip.

I have been looking at DP forecasts over the last week or so and have noticed that the GFS in general seems to go less aggressive vs. the Euro.  Is this a known GFS or Euro bias?

 

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