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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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Just now, bluewave said:

The higher dewpoints drive the more extreme heat index levels when combined with major heat. We were more fortunate with our 100 degree days from 2010 to 2013. They mostly occurred with dewpoints remaining under 70 degrees. So at least the real feel was less extreme than it could have been. We weren’t as lucky in the 1990’s. The July 15th 1995 100+ degree heat had dewpoints peaking in the low 80’s. So Newark set their record 128 degree heat index. JFK had a heat index around 115 on July 5 1999. Next week into the weekend may be our first 100 degree heat potential combined with 75+ dewpoints since then. Last few years we were able to avoid the 100 degree days with the extreme dewpoints surging to record levels and number of days. Eventually, both will combine again. We’ll have to wait and see if we can verify the two together next week into the weekend. 

Do you buy this idea of the most extreme heat coming after the tropical rains?  Typically, after we get a heavy rain, we have a tough time getting that hot.

Also, I hear analogs like 1993 being thrown around, that was an amazingly prolonged summer- do you think we could have something of that magnitude?  The flooding rains in the Mississippi Valley also happened that year.

 

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12 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i remember the 1977 blackout from my building i saw people breaking into shops stealing mopeds the police would come around chase them off but they were overwhelmed...

My 3.8 year old self had faint memories of it being really dark and being really scared lol.  I have brighter memories of what the Yankees did then and the following year and the winter that followed that summer......

 

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18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The most memorable event that year was the Feb 1983 blizzard (2 feet of snow here) although we did have our latest snow event in April, around 2" on the 20th!  That made it back to back Aprils with measurable snows, as we had the April blizzard the year prior.

 

Yeah that was my earliest real snowstorm memory. Nothing else that year really stands out

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Outside of rain/storms (clouds) most guidance has heat potential of 850 temps 16C or greater through 7/24 before the tail end of the long range pushes a trough into the east.

Many 88 and 89 degree days of the last 2 weeks should see now lower to mid 90s this week outside wed and/or thu (Barry's remnants).  Guidance brings the remnants east wed evening into Thu but expect things to speed up as they always do and that may keep wed more cloudy and part or majority of thu, beyond there fri-sun (next weekend 7/19 - 7/21) look very hot around the hottest time of the year... 

90 degree days 7/14 - 7/24 projections, i feel the continued theme of rain/clouds will keep 2-4 days below 90 but quite oppressive (dewpoints)

 

EWR: 7
LGA: 7
NYC: 3 or 4

 

95+ days

EWR: 2
LGA: 3
NYC: 2

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This week looks like an unusual case with so much heat around a tropical system. The heavy rains generally come right after our 100 degree days. This time models have the best surge of heat and humidity following the Barry remnants on Thursday. 

This year is much different than 1993. While there was record flooding over the Central US, there was a drought in the East. Newark set the record for 100 degree days that year.

High count 100 degree day years usually have a major drought in some part of the Central or Eastern US.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 
Missing Count
1 1993 9 0
2 1949 8 0
3 1953 6 0
4 1988 5 0
- 1966 5 0
5 2011 4 0
- 2010 4 0
- 1955 4 0
- 1944 4 0

 

AFD87849-89BB-470B-910F-9F03BADBEBC4.png.061a6fbb2356e63121a258da5c3dbc38.png

 

Right and I find that our big heat summers typically see the big heat start around or just after July 4th!  It's all a bit delayed this summer.

 

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the dates with the most 100 degree days for NYC...

July 3rd.....1966...1898...1911...

July 9th.....1936...1993...1937

July 10th...1936...1993...1937

July 18th...1953...1977...2012

July 21st...1977...1930...1980...1991...1926...1957...

July 22nd..2011...1957...1926...1955

July 31st...1933...1917...1954...

 

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86.0* here at Noon.    87.4* by 1pm.    89.0* by 2pm, so much of area must be 90* already, since I am in a coastal spot.   90.5* by 3pm.    Seem to have topped out at 91.7* at 3:30pm.

I think July 26 will be a big clash of air masses day and then nature will spend the rest of the month  taking back a warmest ever July or a Top Ten finish, we seem destined for now.

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13 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

86.0* here at Noon.

I think July 26 will be a big clash of air masses day and then nature will spend the rest of the month  taking back a warmest ever July or a Top Ten finish, we seemed destined for now.

7/25-28 (still way out there) seems to break the heat.  It'll be interesting to see if it may be just a temp reprieve before more heat the last few days.  

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

90 ewr, 91 lga, Central park dropped to 85 :lol:

Alot of times Central Park is done by 3pm. Those 5pm high temps you see at LGA or EWR sometimes, the park misses out on. I guess the sun angle gets blocked by that point. The inexplicable temp drop usually starts around that time.

At 91 here.  Up to 8 90+ days.

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17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wow. At Cedar Beach now, east of Jones Beach, and it’s a scorcher. Hit 92 at home and at ISP.

so ISP and FOK have higher temps than the city terminals so far this summer 

Couple miles west of you at Tobay. Mmmmm Summer. 40CFABFA-AF7D-4C9C-8774-AF87D395C5E5.thumb.png.87da50954373748e02b101042756943c.png

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53 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wow. At Cedar Beach now, east of Jones Beach, and it’s a scorcher. Hit 92 at home and at ISP.

so ISP and FOK have higher temps than the city terminals so far this summer 

Lol I’m also at Cedar Beach, but on the north shore east of Port Jefferson.

Also hit 92 at home, cooler here on the beach though with the wind blowing off the LI Sound, probably mid 80’s here.

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