• Member Statistics

    15,532
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Rowdy2x
    Newest Member
    Rowdy2x
    Joined
Dr. Dews

June 29-30 2019 Thunderstorms

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Some flashes and thunder with the showers here this morning.  torrentlal attm.

Hoping for a break for mowing later.

 

Similar here.  Some bangers around 5:30. Some rain, maybe some hail based on the  noises on my bedroom AC, but pretty meh. 

I need to mow today as well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Meh 

not very impressed. Looks like the pre-frontal is already pretty close. HRRR has it move through around 2 PM. Might even be a bit earlier than that 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if today would be a case where you don’t want a ton of heating. If sfc winds and llvl winds become west with the passage of the pre-frontal maximum mixing would promote drying and lowering dews. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if today would be a case where you don’t want a ton of heating. If sfc winds and llvl winds become west with the passage of the pre-frontal maximum mixing would promote drying and lowering dews. 

...It's one of the balancing/off-setting facets I thought of too... but I don't think so -

The wind fields are light...like, not blowing anywhere.  I think with sufficient heating we would be fine.  The gradient is too weak for organized katabatic flow/drying and lee side trough focusing ... May not have helped shear requirements .. .but, the 'scouring' concern would be alleviated -

Today is a cloud-deck butt bang.  Nothing else.  At least ...so far that is the case. We'll see going forward, but ... mitigation from lack of insolation will persist ...until the sky coverage begins to behave like the models suggested they would.  Otherwise, bust - and it won't be because of any of the other reasons discussed heretofore, either. 

Like I warned yesterday ... SPC is cagey up our way for good reason. The environment goes out and for lack of better frustration ... creates reason not to get it done.  We have a kind of curse micro climate of finding any plausible excuse not to convect - and doing that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The storms were better organized around 7AM, but yeah.  NAM was on crack

Heh... I think model expectations for "exactitude" are too high if we're grading them as "on crack" ...when we had thunder/rains in the area, and model facets had that ... in the area... hello -

Not sure what folks are thinking of the technology but ...eesh!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... I think model expectations for "exactitude" are too high if we're grading them as "on crack" ...when we had thunder/rains in the area, and model facets had that ... in the area... hello -

Not sure what folks are thinking of the technology but ...eesh!

But the model showed a line that obliterated S of the Pike.  

Since that didn’t happen exactly it is trash. I need my destruction.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I thought last night was kinda hinted well on the models. 

Agreed...  I mean these models are almost down to the threshold of fractals for f* sake and that means a limitation on what they can do to ferret out "the future" - hint hint.

If they were that good...everyone would be a billionaire. 

I'm being sarcastic a bit but in truth ... there is only so much we can do with 3km grids and PITA-FLOP computing power.  Maybe in the future ( sci fi in coming...) there will be more proof and theorem about the quantum processes that coinstruct reality in the Cosmos... hence, knowing the future can be ascertained... But now is not it. 

Until that ...or any such time in which some other tech is brought to operations... I think if these finer meshed tools suggest convection in a meso-beta scaled region, and convection occurs... we'll leave to the exact size of a hail stone dent in Joe yuck-yuck's magic-bus up to the peregrinations of the gods. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Looks like there will be plenty of sunshine to me. Vis sat looks good. 

It is improving... We'll see... 

I think the convective temperature is in 85 to 87 range - but don't quote me.  ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed...  I mean these models are almost down to the threshold of fractals for f* sake and that means a limitation on what they can do to ferret out "the future" - hint hint.

If they were that good...everyone would be a billionaire. 

I'm being sarcastic a bit but in truth ... there is only so much we can do with 3km grids and PITA-FLOP computing power.  Maybe in the future ( sci fi in coming...) there will be more proof and theorem about the quantum processes that coinstruct reality in the Cosmos... hence, knowing the future can be ascertained... But now is not it. 

Until that ...or any such time in which some other tech is brought to operations... I think if these finer meshed tools suggest convection in a meso-beta scaled region, and convection occurs... we'll leave to the exact size of a hail stone dent in Joe yuck-yuck's magic-bus up to the peregrinations of the gods. 

Most models showed at least some areas of showers and t’storms moving through. Plus other signals included; a decent surge of elevated CAPE/theta-e with the approaching warm front  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is improving... We'll see... 

I think the convective temperature is in 85 to 87 range - but don't quote me.  ...

There is still quite a bit of MLCIN and the pre-frontal trough is slowly approaching...even seeing some precip across N CT. I think the threat is kinda cooked here.

may be better in RI/ E MA actually...better time for recovery. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Love your casa on the radar.  :)

Haha I didn’t even know that was possible until now. Love RadarScope. 

Cloudy and a balmy 85/74 here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, weatherwiz said:

There is still quite a bit of MLCIN and the pre-frontal trough is slowly approaching...even seeing some precip across N CT. I think the threat is kinda cooked here.

may be better in RI/ E MA actually...better time for recovery. 

Man... you just won't give up on the pre-frontal trough mantra    :)

I dunno - I checked out SPC's meso analysis and there is a broadly defined trough structure but emphasis on broad... That means not well defined.  The gradient still also looks weak ... It's hard to separate that look, which is -btw- is entirely normal lee-side of elevation fluid mechanics .., from that same time of structure becoming an evacuating moving object in the atmosphere.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Man... you just won't give up on the pre-frontal trough mantra    :)

I dunno - I checked out SPC's meso analysis and there is a broadly defined trough structure but emphasis on broad... That means not well defined.  The gradient still also looks weak ... It's hard to separate that look, which is -btw- is entirely normal lee-side of elevation fluid mechanics .., from that same time of structure becoming an evacuating moving object in the atmosphere.   

It certainly is weak...no doubt. 

Its just we’ve been screwed so many times in the past with these and how they’re timed.

You see clearing behind them and get all excited meanwhile your dews are slowly dropping and everything goes to hell. 

Not feeling good for CT...maybe SE

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep in mind also ... you could be getting fooled by the fact that we had 4am to 7 am rains showers/thunder traverse the area, and that may be conditionally hiking theta-e now that the sun is finding it's way more to the Earth; evaporation and limited lower BL mixing ( as noted by the weak wind fields ) is may be faux elevating east of the Berks. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is improving... We'll see... 

I think the convective temperature is in 85 to 87 range - but don't quote me.  ...

Bright sunshine on rt 3 road to cape

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It certainly is weak...no doubt. 

Its just we’ve been screwed so many times in the past with these and how they’re timed.

You see clearing behind them and get all excited meanwhile your dews are slowly dropping and everything goes to hell. 

Not feeling good for CT...maybe SE

Believe me ... I know! 

and we like to know from which direction the dildo is flogging ... I really think though, that pre fropa isn't our problem ... we need this ceiling contamination to wane out... There's time..but we gotta do it by 2pm or it doesn't matter whether there is a trough pre or not -

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Believe me ... I know! 

and we like to know from which direction the dildo is flogging ... I really think though, that pre fropa isn't our problem ... we need this ceiling contamination to wane out... There's time..but we gotta do it by 2pm or it doesn't matter whether there is a trough pre or not -

Very fair point. Seems like clearing is trying to quickly work in so we’ll see what happens over the next 90 min or so 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.