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June 29-30 2019 Thunderstorms


Torch Tiger
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39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1298.html

temps are 78 to 80 pan-wide and the sky's trying desperately to open more.  But ...their reasoning is contained... It echoes what we've been talking about re the sun/limitations...

The sun's attempts here are failing miserably.  A few peeks and then back to overcast.

I'm calling it.  We're toast--at least for this neck of the woods.  Maybe tomorrow will perform.

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

3K was a fail 2 hours out, cmon its a convective model designed for local convection. It blew its load. Get real

I wouldn't say it's designed specifically to model local convection, it's a downscaled version of the 12km NAM that CAN resolve convection. I would trust the models that were specifically designed to model convection first.

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averaging 83/70 around the Davis' within a couple clicks of mi casa ...

The sun popped out for a jiff about 30 minutes ago and that seemed to trigger CU eruption.  Dark bases spread over head out of no where.  I can also seen towers N-W...

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Shear is still pretty marginal down that way, so a straight up/straight down pulse is the most likely evolution for the time being.

yeah ... was thinking pulse being our fun-show ...  we got some velocity shear mid way up CBs as they were leaners when first glaciating... but below 10k seems unorganized. DP busted high east of the Berks ( as far as I can tell..) and that's probably given us a CAPE boost

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