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Dr. Dews

June 29-30 2019 Thunderstorms

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39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1298.html

temps are 78 to 80 pan-wide and the sky's trying desperately to open more.  But ...their reasoning is contained... It echoes what we've been talking about re the sun/limitations...

The sun's attempts here are failing miserably.  A few peeks and then back to overcast.

I'm calling it.  We're toast--at least for this neck of the woods.  Maybe tomorrow will perform.

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There is plenty of sfc CAPE available but MLCAPE is a much different story (except eastern areas). Llvl moisture overall isn’t that impressive. 850 dews under 10C. Still a bit of MLCIN too. 

 

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

3K was a fail 2 hours out, cmon its a convective model designed for local convection. It blew its load. Get real

I wouldn't say it's designed specifically to model local convection, it's a downscaled version of the 12km NAM that CAN resolve convection. I would trust the models that were specifically designed to model convection first.

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averaging 83/70 around the Davis' within a couple clicks of mi casa ...

The sun popped out for a jiff about 30 minutes ago and that seemed to trigger CU eruption.  Dark bases spread over head out of no where.  I can also seen towers N-W...

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You can see those towers over my area of Middlesex CO on vis imagery ... those are close to cutting through - wouldn't shock me if those take off for the N. shore...

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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Micro cell gave us one flash of lightning and a quick downpour.  Next

Actually a decent core just crossing 495 to your east. Headed for Woburn.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Actually a decent core just crossing 495 to your east. Headed for Woburn.

Got that out just before BOX issued the warning...

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What are risks w That cell moving thru Bedford area 

I'd say mostly a risk for an isolated downburst as the core collapses. Didn't get so high that I think large hail is really a threat.

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Shear is still pretty marginal down that way, so a straight up/straight down pulse is the most likely evolution for the time being.

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Shear is still pretty marginal down that way, so a straight up/straight down pulse is the most likely evolution for the time being.

yeah ... was thinking pulse being our fun-show ...  we got some velocity shear mid way up CBs as they were leaners when first glaciating... but below 10k seems unorganized. DP busted high east of the Berks ( as far as I can tell..) and that's probably given us a CAPE boost

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Storm in RI now has over 50 dBZ over 38 kft. That's pretty impressive for these parts. MRMS suggesting hail over 1 inch.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Storm in RI now has over 50 dBZ over 38 kft. That's pretty impressive for these parts. MRMS suggesting hail over 1 inch.

Nice Marine warning.  Fun on the Bay. If this was late August, our son could watch it from campus

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Just noticed a nice stationary blob of dBZ, looks like they threw up a wind turbine off RT 14 in Johnston and it's very visible for KBOX. 

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