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June 29-30 2019 Thunderstorms


Torch Tiger
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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

JB is a nut.  Take anything he says with a huge grain of salt.

JB guarantees 2019-20 winter will feature 700 dm -NAO heights that will ensure any nor'easter stalls over the 40/70 benchmark for days and dumps up to 100 feet of snow over Boston and instantly freeze anyone who steps outside solid.

 

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6 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

I seriously don't trust a thing he says and can't believe some people give him the time of day. Compares yesterday to 1953 then still pats himself on the back with this tweet...

 

I came so close to replying back to him. 

I have great respect for him, but what he did this week was completely irresponsible and unwarranted. All he did was use the fact that the placement of two fronts and a parent low as an analog. He of all people should know it doesn't work that way. 

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I came so close to replying back to him. 

I have great respect for him, but what he did this week was completely irresponsible and unwarranted. All he did was use the fact that the placement of two fronts and a parent low as an analog. He of all people should know it doesn't work that way. 

Meh, I'm not even sure he put that much thought into it. Every hurricane is 1938 or Carol, every blizzard is 1978, and so on and so on. Kevin is right about one thing, hype sells. And JB is a salesman. 

But honestly it's not that hard to take SPC's outlook and slap your own contours on it and be right more often than not. I could've just circled the max updraft helicity from the 12z HREF yesterday and come up with a similar red blob to JB.

uh25_024hmax_nh075.ne.f03600_zpsge3gwghn

He says "no tornadoes" like it was just bad luck one didn't happen. There were no tornadoes because it never really looked like a tornado set up. Certainly not a significant tornado set up.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Meh, I'm not even sure he put that much thought into it. Every hurricane is 1938 or Carol, every blizzard is 1978, and so on and so on. Kevin is right about one thing, hype sells. And JB is a salesman. 

But honestly it's not that hard to take SPC's outlook and slap your own contours on it and be right more often than not. I could've just circled the max updraft helicity from the 12z HREF yesterday and come up with a similar red blob to JB.

uh25_024hmax_nh075.ne.f03600_zpsge3gwghn

He says "no tornadoes" like it was just bad luck one didn't happen. There were no tornadoes because it never really looked like a tornado set up. Certainly not a significant tornado set up.

I did tweet back (I was respectful) but yeah I was going to mention something about him calling himself "correct" for his area he drew up...it really wasn't that difficult. 

Kevin is right...hype does sell and it sucks. It totally bothers me b/c the same people who cry and complain that meteorologists hype are the same people that follow the ones that hype...it's an addiction this society has. 

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Good views this afternoon as cells fired over the Spine.  Felt like a summer weather pattern today despite cooler temps, 60f dews with rounds of brief, heavy thundershowers.  Pretty fast storm motion, deep ULL, and solid lapse rates despite cooler surface temps... active day up this way but nothing severe or even close to it.

R57SMUr.jpg

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2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Holy crap, I forgot about his no 90s in DC call from earlier this month. It's actually pretty shocking that people shell out a lot of money to get insight like that.

That cell that popped here around 17z had one loud clap that resonated for about 5 sec, Good one actually right overhead, Lot of popcorn cells today moving due south out of Canada.

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14 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Holy crap, I forgot about his no 90s in DC call from earlier this month. It's actually pretty shocking that people shell out a lot of money to get insight like that.

That can't be. I am guessing his "tweets" are distinguished from what goes to his business clientele. One would hope.

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6 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

That can't be. I am guessing his "tweets" are distinguished from what goes to his business clientele. One would hope.

And join me on this wild ride where, in one of his rantings, in something called the Patriot Post he says, "as a meteorologist in the private sector, wherein success is largely determined by forecast skill, I cannot afford to be wrong." 

:yikes:

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Whats the june avg there?

Here's the current monthly averages, as of the end of last month:
JAN   3.24"
FEB   3.06"
MAR  3.64"
APR   4.01"
MAY  4.01"
JUN   5.30"  My first full month in our house was June 1998, with 12.81".  Month would still be at 4.94" without '98.
JUL   3.92"
AUG  4.02"
SEP   3.67"
OCT  5.62"
NOV  4.31"
DEC  4.46"
Year 49.26"
The 10-year period 2005-14 had only one year below 50" (2013 with 48.66") and averaged 54.42".  Two years, 2005 and 2008, hit the 60s.  The other 11 years average 43.99" and have not reached 50" once.

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Here's the current monthly averages, as of the end of last month:
JAN   3.24"
FEB   3.06"
MAR  3.64"
APR   4.01"
MAY  4.01"
JUN   5.30"  My first full month in our house was June 1998, with 12.81".  Month would still be at 4.94" without '98.
JUL   3.92"
AUG  4.02"
SEP   3.67"
OCT  5.62"
NOV  4.31"
DEC  4.46"
Year 49.26"
The 10-year period 2005-14 had only one year below 50" (2013 with 48.66") and averaged 54.42".  Two years, 2005 and 2008, hit the 60s.  The other 11 years average 43.99" and have not reached 50" once.

Were 2"+ above for June here.

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