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JEH

Tornado Probability of Detection Statistics

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My understanding is that the NWS's tornado false alarm rate is around 70% and its probability of detection (PoD) rate is around 60-70%, varying by forecast office of course. I would like to know how much the PoD would improve if

1) Severe thunderstorm warnings with the "Tornado...Possible" tag were counted as detection.
2) Any severe thunderstorm warning were counted as detection.

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Your best bet is to contact your local NWS office.  They may be able to link to a specific reg or guidance.

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