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George BM

June Discobs 2019

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29 minutes ago, frd said:

@Eskimo Joe  is this statement by Maue really true ?  A decade behind ?

 

 

That seems a bit of an overreach.  On paper the GFS is not a terrible model, but operationally it's not something I rely on.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That seems a bit of an overreach.  On paper the GFS is not a terrible model, but operationally it's not something I rely on.

Can't help but think each model has its own obvious strengths and weaknesses, or as some will say reoccurring forecast errors or biases. Over time these biases may be modeled out as the forecast system is upgraded or tweaked. I would think the best course of action is what you see everyday in various NWS forecast discussions, a blend of various models, trends, etc. to get to a forecast. Similiar to as to what the WPC does.      

 We know the rankings of the Euro is pretty high, in terms of verification.  I believe the best forecasters understand the various weather models ability to handle different forecast challenges and in tandem creates a forecast that delivers the highest potential of verification by taking everything I mentioned into play.     

 

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2 hours ago, high risk said:

      it's not really a choice, as the FV3GFS is now being distributed in the GFS data streams.

Instantweathermaps is stuck on the 6z suite, so they aren't on the ball.  TropicalTidbits is working fine.  I assume the pay vendors are also.

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Sterling's thoughts are leaning somewhat bullish imo with 1-3" possible for the event tonight/ tomorrow.  

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to move offshore late this afternoon
and evening. A southeasterly return flow has developed, but
humidity levels should remain low through the rest of the
afternoon. High and mid-level clouds will increase late this
afternoon ahead of low pressure that is developing along the
southeastern CONUS.

An anomalous upper-level trough will continue to dig south and
east tonight as it shifts over the Great Lakes and Midwest. A
southwest flow aloft over our area ahead of this system will
continue to usher in more moisture, while moisture also advects
in from the Atlantic Ocean with a southeasterly flow at the
surface. Guidance continues to be in good agreement with a
coastal low that will track up the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight.
Rain will overspread the area from south to north this evening
into the overnight hours, and some of the rain may be locally
heavy due to the increased moisture and lift associated with the
coastal low. PWATS close to 2 inches are expected near and east
of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains. Leaned QPF forecasts a
bit closer toward the HREF PMM, which shows around 1-2 inches
for most locations near and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains
with lesser amounts to the west. Localized amounts around 2 to 3
inches are possible, and this may lead to isolated instances of
flooding near and east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains.
However, confidence for flooding remains low due to higher FFG
values. Therefore, a watch has not been issued at this time.

&&

Imby I'm thinking low end . This type of setup always comes in faster and is out quicker then modeled and last minute trends always bump east with heaviest bands and any convective showers.  I95 on east has to be favored.  The surface temps and dews  in the 50s don't add confidence either for north + west areas . But ...something to track  and maybe a thunderstorm late Thursday 

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turned out to be a phenomenal day.  this is becoming one of the better stretches of weather to start spring/summer that i can recall, with sprinkles of storms mixed in to keep things interesting.

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21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Sterling's thoughts are leaning somewhat bullish imo with 1-3" possible for the event tonight/ tomorrow.  



 

Imby I'm thinking low end . This type of setup always comes in faster and is out quicker then modeled and last minute trends always bump east with heaviest bands and any convective showers.  I95 on east has to be favored.  The surface temps and dews  in the 50s don't add confidence either for north + west areas . But ...something to track  and maybe a thunderstorm late Thursday 

Yeah here too.  My bar is 0.5 which would be more than the last few weeks combined.

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Beyond tomorrow's rainfall event,  a signal for yet another significant event early next week, but to our far West. I would monitor as it could trend East more.   

From the WPC 



Day 6 and 7 

97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1560374211

 

 

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Sterling's thoughts are leaning somewhat bullish imo with 1-3" possible for the event tonight/ tomorrow.  
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...High pressure will continue to move offshore late this afternoonand evening. A southeasterly return flow has developed, buthumidity levels should remain low through the rest of theafternoon. High and mid-level clouds will increase late thisafternoon ahead of low pressure that is developing along thesoutheastern CONUS.An anomalous upper-level trough will continue to dig south andeast tonight as it shifts over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Asouthwest flow aloft over our area ahead of this system willcontinue to usher in more moisture, while moisture also advectsin from the Atlantic Ocean with a southeasterly flow at thesurface. Guidance continues to be in good agreement with acoastal low that will track up the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight.Rain will overspread the area from south to north this eveninginto the overnight hours, and some of the rain may be locallyheavy due to the increased moisture and lift associated with thecoastal low. PWATS close to 2 inches are expected near and eastof the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains. Leaned QPF forecasts abit closer toward the HREF PMM, which shows around 1-2 inchesfor most locations near and east of the Blue Ridge Mountainswith lesser amounts to the west. Localized amounts around 2 to 3inches are possible, and this may lead to isolated instances offlooding near and east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains.However, confidence for flooding remains low due to higher FFGvalues. Therefore, a watch has not been issued at this time.&&

Imby I'm thinking low end . This type of setup always comes in faster and is out quicker then modeled and last minute trends always bump east with heaviest bands and any convective showers.  I95 on east has to be favored.  The surface temps and dews  in the 50s don't add confidence either for north + west areas . But ...something to track  and maybe a thunderstorm late Thursday 


Agreed. I’m always down for a good soaker but I’ve been watching this system like a hawk. Between work and family it’s tough to schedule an 2 day float for smallmouth. This weekend has been planned for a while. Really hoping for a bust....especially in PA.

The trend has been to shift the heaviest rains east like you said. You can see it on radar already. Just need to keep amounts below .30 and the rivers will be prime Saturday morning.

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40 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

Maybe the rain and associated coastal low will move through quicker than expected and allow for good rain tonight and earlier clearing tomorrow? Earlier timing is common with systems.

That’s what I’m hoping for.  I’d love a 3 week stretch of sunny and no unsettled weather.  The Bay is taking a beating with all this rain causing pollution runoff.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

That’s what I’m hoping for.  I’d love a 3 week stretch of sunny and no unsettled weather.  The Bay is taking a beating with all this rain causing pollution runoff.

Looks like moderate rain is already moving into LYH and probably CHO within the hour... a quicker low may make for a more interesting afternoon storm wise

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57 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like moderate rain is already moving into LYH and probably CHO within the hour... a quicker low may make for a more interesting afternoon storm wise

       New NAM nest still has north winds at DCA at 2pm Thursday.    HRRR is a little quicker with the turn around back to southwest.     

 

 

 

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Just now, high risk said:

       New NAM nest still has north winds at DCA at 2pm Thursday.    HRRR is a little quicker with the turn around back to southwest.     

 

 

 

I figure we probably won't have any real severe storms in the afternoon... but here's to hoping lol

Still wind advisory criteria for Friday morning?

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14 minutes ago, yoda said:

I figure we probably won't have any real severe storms in the afternoon... but here's to hoping lol

Still wind advisory criteria for Friday morning?

    00z NAM nest really, really backed off on the 850 wind field - not sure yet if it's a blip or a legit trend.

    still possible that we see a few stronger wind gusts in late day convection Thursday.    While the instability is going to be really meager, these strongly-forced events can occasionally surprise.   It would help if the NAM nest is correct with more organized storms holding off until really late in the day, giving the maximum amount of time for moisture recovery and mid-level cooling.

   

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2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

It looks like a wintertime low.

Year without a summer 2019

If only it was! Then the Mid Atlantic would have a massively snowy Winter of 2019-2020.

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Absolute soaker here.

1.73" when I left for work about an hour ago, and was still coming down hard. Probably a 2" total.

That would be at or above 3" of rain since Monday.

Lets see what happens with the summer mosquitoes. The Spring batch has been nearly nonexistent after nuking the woodland wetland with 3 rounds of larvacide in March and April. Been great to be outside without using insect repellent. Time for some summertime heat and hot breezes to get things dried up a bit.

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