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George BM

June Discobs 2019

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26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

6z 3k brings a nice slug of rain north Wed night into Thursday but it seems to be on it's own.  Most guidance seems to have the majority of the area in the subsidence zone with energy splitting ......some going up through the eastern shore and beaches and energy driving through Ohio-W. Pennsylvania .

Yeah need to watch the trends for Wed night through Thursday. Some areas may end up betwixt and between. Looks like some possible convection late on Thursday too with the trailing front from the low tracking into the GLs.

Further down the road, early next week has the look of a potentially wet period with a stalled front and pieces of energy moving along it.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah need to watch the trends for Wed night through Thursday. Some areas may end up betwixt and between. Looks like some possible convection late on Thursday too with the trailing front from the low tracking into the GLs.

Further down the road, early next week has the look of a potentially wet period with a stalled front and pieces of energy moving along it.

Yea...i noticed the models have been showing a boundary setting up. Fri sat look dry but by Sunday that period might begin. Should keep the "boredom" from setting in . 

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I'll be in Maine from the 20th - 27th so you can all guarantee something big happening.

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5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Hopefully they don't call it the Euro FV3

It was a really interesting press release. I’m impressed by how often they’re making these important updates. 

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5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It was a really interesting press release. I’m impressed by how often they’re making these important updates. 

I read the link and it is indeed pretty cool the key areas they talk about further. So many varied improvements. The part about improving the forecasting of waves is pretty neat and I imagine very high on the list for ocean commerce vessels, cruise ships, etc.

and for you @WxWatcher007  a mention about the tropics too :popcorn: 

<<<

Results in the tropics are more mixed, but there are strong improvements for 2-metre temperature. Tropical cyclone forecast skill is neutral overall, with a slight reduction in track error, consistent with improved winds in the tropics.

>>

 

 

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Simply wow !! Really amazing the turn of the NAO.  Just when you thought it was a fairy tale the past 6 weeks show up including the record May and now this incredible ridge.     

 

If deep winter wonder the changes in the NAO and the forecasted rise coming up off the deep negative would have provided a HA event and a equally impressive MECS or even greater. Actually I think ity would have. :P

 

 

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53 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Might be kinda cool to see an h5 pattern like this in Jan or Feb.

 

jan.thumb.png.af219028211bf3e4d5d49323db20a43f.png

Don’t hold your breath :( 

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NAM nest at 850 mb for Friday morning.     Forecast soundings show a well-mixed PBL, so we're going to need a high wind warning in the higher terrain to the west and a wind advisory in the metros if this is correct.     That's super rare for mid-June!

Screen Shot 2019-06-11 at 10.55.48 PM.png

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00z NAM bullseye the i95 corridor tomorrow night into Thursday morning with heavy rain... 2 to 3 inches

Everyone gets 1"+ pretty much

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36 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z NAM bullseye the i95 corridor tomorrow night into Thursday morning with heavy rain... 2 to 3 inches

Everyone gets 1"+ pretty much

           from what I've seen in the 00z suite from the CAMs and lower-res models, while the NAMs are some of the wettest solutions, there is pretty good agreement for a good soaker.

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7 hours ago, yoda said:

00z NAM bullseye the i95 corridor tomorrow night into Thursday morning with heavy rain... 2 to 3 inches

Everyone gets 1"+ pretty much

That shifted west a good bit

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9 hours ago, high risk said:

NAM nest at 850 mb for Friday morning.     Forecast soundings show a well-mixed PBL, so we're going to need a high wind warning in the higher terrain to the west and a wind advisory in the metros if this is correct.     That's super rare for mid-June!

Still looking breezy for late morning Friday.  45kts at ~3k ft.

413683015_2019061206_NAMNST_056_38.89-77.11_severe_ml.thumb.png.7ae035e5f025df8d82fd5a92cc7a496d.png

 

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precip aside, the forecasting of clouds vs sun is still pretty inconsistent around here.  forecast was for sunny, but i guess there's a little impulse moving through bringing overcast.  however, it does look like it will clear out by the afternoon.  i'm hoping that's the case because i have the day off lol.

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Just got this message at work,

Quote

Dear NWS Partners,

 

Effective today, the National Weather Service (NWS) operational Global Forecast System (GFS) includes a new-and-improved FV3 dynamical core. Congratulations to our NWS Environment Modeling Center scientists and everyone else who worked diligently to make today’s implementation possible. This is the first major upgrade in almost 40 years to the dynamical core, a key model component that computes wind and air pressure. We should all be proud of this major accomplishment.

 

This significant milestone will shape the future of the weather, water and climate enterprise in a number of important ways. In the short-term, we will see improved guidance for the jet stream and associated weather, precipitation, and tropical cyclone intensity and 5-day tracks. In the longer-term, this upgrade will enable even more significant improvements as we look to advance the physics in the model and the data assimilation system used to ingest data and initialize the model. Along with our new partnership with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to build a common modeling infrastructure between the operational and research communities, we have a lot to celebrate today and look forward to in the future.

 

After rigorous testing that was deliberative and transparent with the weather enterprise, and recent adjustments made to address concerns about cold and snow biases, I have complete confidence in today’s implementation and the improved model output we will get from the GFS. The retiring version of the model will no longer be used in operations, but will continue to run in parallel through September 2019 for data comparison.

 --Louis

 

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

DuPage has already switched their source and eliminated the old FV3 tab.  I'm guessing other places have to.  Here we go.

      it's not really a choice, as the FV3GFS is now being distributed in the GFS data streams.

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43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Ater rigorous testing that was deliberative and transparent with the weather enterprise, and recent adjustments made to address concerns about cold and snow biases, I have complete confidence in today’s implementation and the improved model output we will get from the GFS.

This really caught my eye, if true, kudos and congrats to the team responsible for this undertaking. I really like us to be able to compete with the guys across the pond. We have many bright minds here in the states, both young and old.  Onwards and upwards !

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Just now, frd said:

This really caught my eye, if true, kudos and congrats to the team responsible for this undertaking. I really like us to be able to compete with the guys across the pond. We have many bright minds here in the states, both young and old.  Onwards and upwards !

I'm part of a NOAA/NWS partners committee and it was a point of frequent, spirited discussion but the folks on the NWS side realized this was a priority and it's clear they've been working hard on it.  I look forward to seeing it take the Euro out behind the woodshed this winter.

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51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm part of a NOAA/NWS partners committee and it was a point of frequent, spirited discussion but the folks on the NWS side realized this was a priority and it's clear they've been working hard on it.  I look forward to seeing it take the Euro out behind the woodshed this winter.

@Eskimo Joe  is this statement by Maue really true ?  A decade behind ?

 

 

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