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George BM

June Discobs 2019

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44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If there is a bullseye of heavy rain over the area tomorrow evening, let it be know that the GFS called it 138hrs out and has been locked in about it since.

Mount Holly agrees,  and highlights this time frame in the NWS discussion for tomorrow evening. 

 

The main threat tomorrow however, looks like it will be a heavy rain
and flooding threat. Along and south of the front, there could be
several risk factors, including very high precipitable water values
(above 2 inches) and a very deep warm cloud layer. There is
potential, especially Monday evening, for training storms, since the
mid and upper level flow will be almost parallel to the front. Held
off on issuing a flash flood watch at this time given the
uncertainty with where the front will be, and thus where the threat
area will be. If the front stalls near ILG, then the main threat
area will be over northern Delmarva and far southern NJ (Salem,
Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May).

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.HYDROLOGY...
Concern is increasing about flood/flash flood potential; not so
much today, but moreso Monday and Tuesday. Moisture is not as
significant or deep as we might typically like, but having a
stalled front in the area does mean there`s an increased
likelihood of training thunderstorms and thus perhaps some
flooding.

For now, we are watching what`s happening upstream, and waiting
to see where the surface front ends up tonight. Since the
activity is convective in nature and these weak impulses don`t
lend themselves to high confidence well in advance -- plus we
currently have relatively high Flash Flood Guidance -- I have
elected to wait and see how today plays out. From a flood
perspective, Tuesday might actually have a higher potential than
Monday (with Monday`s rains serving as the primer).

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Super muggy out and Flood Watches posted over a vast area. 

Check out this guideance on upcoming rainfall...... 

Seems our general forum is clearly targeted. 

 

p168i.gif?1560769655

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Hrrr looks like a chance for a scattered afternoon thunderstorm. What happened to the organized complex? I hope this "wet period" doesn't end up a shower Wednesday night. 

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8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Hrrr looks like a chance for a scattered afternoon thunderstorm. What happened to the organized complex? I hope this "wet period" doesn't end up a shower Wednesday night. 

Looks like we are placed in slight risk for today.

One thing is the PWATs are very high. Think flooding risks are elevated, versus the chances for severe.   

Mount Holly mentioned in the lastest update how busy they were in Southern NJ last evening with warnings.  There were some quick moving West to East storms that missed me by a few miles but did get some rain. Little instense cells with damaging winds.  

"

Previous discussion...

This was not the night I was expecting. After the mesoscale
convective system (MCS) moved through the region last evening
(albeit relatively weak owing to poor midlevel lapse rates from
antecedent clouds/precipitation), convection began to develop in
northern Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Then it re-initiated
again a couple hours later. The storms had fairly similar
representation on radar: cores of 50+-dBZ echo to about 20 kft that
were demonstrably capable of producing strong to severe surface
gusts. This made for a busy night, with several warnings issued and
quite a few reports of 50+ mph gusts, especially in the Atlantic
City and Tuckerton areas.

 

"

 

 

   

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And here we have the lastest 6:30 AM Update form Mount Holly. 

I bolded the interesting parts. 

 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 am update: Made some minor adjustments to PoPs this morning
based on the latest radar trends with the decaying precipitation
to our west. Looks like we will see a lull this morning before
the next round of storms occurs this afternoon/evening. The 06z
model suite is showing a fairly similar convective evolution to
the 00z models, with the NAM Nest and HRRR indicating about the
southern two-thirds of the area will see numerous strong to
severe storms this afternoon. There are mixed signals regarding
convective mode now, with some potential for quasi-discrete
storms mixed with more organized line segments/clusters. This
morning`s soundings may shed some light on this potential (via
analysis of shear and midlevel lapse rates), but suspect that
hail potential is relatively modest given antecedent convection
modifying the midlevel thermodynamic characteristics (i.e.,
warming and moistening). Notably, the 00z WRF simulations are
much farther north with the convection this afternoon/tonight,
and this is plausible since the models were generally too far
south with the precipitation/frontal placement on Sunday. Should
this trend continue, may need to expand the flash flood watch
northward.

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This is really a remarkable record and a very interesting post by @bluewave

<<<<

 

From bluewave:

No surprise that the front is stalled out near 40N with a SST gradient like this. The cold pool east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes set a new record coldest SST’s for the month of May.

 

A0CB3989-D858-49CA-8E52-240189CDAC37.gif.937328ab826ce7a371d54725902093dc.gif

9EEC807D-DB9A-4661-B46F-6DA30A316354.png.2c735f32ee8a4350d4882c14058cb3e1.png

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18 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

If there is a bullseye of heavy rain over the area tomorrow evening, let it be know that the GFS called it 138hrs out and has been locked in about it since.

And it’s gone. Last 3 runs dropped it south and dramatically weakened the rain bullseye 

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2 hours ago, Sparky said:

Had some surprise thunderstorm activity overnight between 2 and 4am.  A good bit of lightning at times but rain wasn't particularly heavy got .30".   Just fun to lie in bed listening to the rumbling thunder and watching the glow of lightning filtering in between the shades and curtains.

Yes it was a nice surprise.

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Pouring rain and bright sunshine on the Hill right now. Reminds me of summer sessions in college in north central Florida, where it rained every day at 4 pm and often with the sun out.

 

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I can guarantee that there will be storms in the forecast for nearly every day when I go down to west virginia in early july (southwestern) 

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Did someone say thunderstorms?  Bwahahahahaha!  I was confident in no rain so I watered everything heavily this morning.  All this talk of multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms this week.  Psssshhh.  I am calling it now -- shutout.

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20 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I can guarantee that there will be storms in the forecast for nearly every day when I go down to west virginia in early july (southwestern) 

Logan? Man? Welch? Iaeger?

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15 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Logan? Man? Welch? Iaeger?

Yep, I am going on a week long four-wheeling trip on the Hatfield-McCoy trail system up near Logan on July 6.

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Most guidance suggesting many in the forum will get caught between systems tomorrow.  Tomorrow early morning's impulse almost unanimously on guidance misses us north and late afternoon evening looks to favor DC on south and east . Hopefully doesn't go down that way :yikes:

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Not even enough to wet the ground at my house today. And, as losetoa6 mentions, tomorrow looks mostly dry.

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Not even enough to wet the ground at my house today. And, as losetoa6 mentions, tomorrow looks mostly dry.
And in the meantime, those cells just keep coming right over my house. Can't imagine what a swamp my backyard is.

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Just a few miles south of my location has been getting crushed. I've had a soaker but nothing like where the rain train is just south of me. Looks like more storms on radar popping over same area.

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Caught the edge of a decent storm, worse to the south and east but it poured for 20 mins or so. Some general moderate rain now. Picked up 0.54" so far.

 

eta- ended up with 0.68".

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Caught a heavy shower overnight to make yesterday’s total just over 1/2”.

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10 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

RT 50 was the dividing line inside the VA Beltway.  1-1.5” to the south (~1” at DCA), much less to the north.  0.27” at home.

And now in visual form

GetMap_aspx.gif.03538f70f6f6482271eafc43d0cf9116.gif

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