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June Discobs 2019


George BM
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Sterling's thoughts are leaning somewhat bullish imo with 1-3" possible for the event tonight/ tomorrow.  
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...High pressure will continue to move offshore late this afternoonand evening. A southeasterly return flow has developed, buthumidity levels should remain low through the rest of theafternoon. High and mid-level clouds will increase late thisafternoon ahead of low pressure that is developing along thesoutheastern CONUS.An anomalous upper-level trough will continue to dig south andeast tonight as it shifts over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Asouthwest flow aloft over our area ahead of this system willcontinue to usher in more moisture, while moisture also advectsin from the Atlantic Ocean with a southeasterly flow at thesurface. Guidance continues to be in good agreement with acoastal low that will track up the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight.Rain will overspread the area from south to north this eveninginto the overnight hours, and some of the rain may be locallyheavy due to the increased moisture and lift associated with thecoastal low. PWATS close to 2 inches are expected near and eastof the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains. Leaned QPF forecasts abit closer toward the HREF PMM, which shows around 1-2 inchesfor most locations near and east of the Blue Ridge Mountainswith lesser amounts to the west. Localized amounts around 2 to 3inches are possible, and this may lead to isolated instances offlooding near and east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains.However, confidence for flooding remains low due to higher FFGvalues. Therefore, a watch has not been issued at this time.&&

Imby I'm thinking low end . This type of setup always comes in faster and is out quicker then modeled and last minute trends always bump east with heaviest bands and any convective showers.  I95 on east has to be favored.  The surface temps and dews  in the 50s don't add confidence either for north + west areas . But ...something to track  and maybe a thunderstorm late Thursday 


Agreed. I’m always down for a good soaker but I’ve been watching this system like a hawk. Between work and family it’s tough to schedule an 2 day float for smallmouth. This weekend has been planned for a while. Really hoping for a bust....especially in PA.

The trend has been to shift the heaviest rains east like you said. You can see it on radar already. Just need to keep amounts below .30 and the rivers will be prime Saturday morning.
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40 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

Maybe the rain and associated coastal low will move through quicker than expected and allow for good rain tonight and earlier clearing tomorrow? Earlier timing is common with systems.

That’s what I’m hoping for.  I’d love a 3 week stretch of sunny and no unsettled weather.  The Bay is taking a beating with all this rain causing pollution runoff.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

That’s what I’m hoping for.  I’d love a 3 week stretch of sunny and no unsettled weather.  The Bay is taking a beating with all this rain causing pollution runoff.

Looks like moderate rain is already moving into LYH and probably CHO within the hour... a quicker low may make for a more interesting afternoon storm wise

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57 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like moderate rain is already moving into LYH and probably CHO within the hour... a quicker low may make for a more interesting afternoon storm wise

       New NAM nest still has north winds at DCA at 2pm Thursday.    HRRR is a little quicker with the turn around back to southwest.     

 

 

 

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Just now, high risk said:

       New NAM nest still has north winds at DCA at 2pm Thursday.    HRRR is a little quicker with the turn around back to southwest.     

 

 

 

I figure we probably won't have any real severe storms in the afternoon... but here's to hoping lol

Still wind advisory criteria for Friday morning?

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14 minutes ago, yoda said:

I figure we probably won't have any real severe storms in the afternoon... but here's to hoping lol

Still wind advisory criteria for Friday morning?

    00z NAM nest really, really backed off on the 850 wind field - not sure yet if it's a blip or a legit trend.

    still possible that we see a few stronger wind gusts in late day convection Thursday.    While the instability is going to be really meager, these strongly-forced events can occasionally surprise.   It would help if the NAM nest is correct with more organized storms holding off until really late in the day, giving the maximum amount of time for moisture recovery and mid-level cooling.

   

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Absolute soaker here.

1.73" when I left for work about an hour ago, and was still coming down hard. Probably a 2" total.

That would be at or above 3" of rain since Monday.

Lets see what happens with the summer mosquitoes. The Spring batch has been nearly nonexistent after nuking the woodland wetland with 3 rounds of larvacide in March and April. Been great to be outside without using insect repellent. Time for some summertime heat and hot breezes to get things dried up a bit.

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9 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

.66 inches.  1.37 for the past 7 days. I guess that's okay. Still would like to get over an inch for one event.  Hope the sky clears up so that I can get under a good 20-minute downpour. 

Looking out in time a muggy, active and stormy pattern will continue for the next couple weeks. Severe weather odds increase again to our West in time and may make it here as well. 

High dews , sorry to say, are going to pay a visit early next week, but as for extreme heat,  or long duration above normal heat, that is nowhere in sight. 

May have to wait until after July  4 th for an official heat wave IMHO. Will will have a 90 degree, or more day, but not enough strung together to qualify as a true heatwave. So far, the cooler side is winning. ( or the less warm side , whatever floats your boat  .

Seems rainfall is one main reason for the cooler weather, ( no dry/hot source region to tap ) along with the upstream blocking, the previous long duration -SOI /MJO and the cold pool in the NW Atlantic.  

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Just now, frd said:

Looking out in time a muggy, active and stormy pattern will continue for the next couple weeks. Severe weather odds increase again to our West in time and may make it here as well. 

High dews , sorry to say, are going to pay a visit early next week, but as for extreme heat,  or long duration above normal heat, that is nowhere in sight. 

May have to wait until after July  4 th for an official heat wave IMHO. Will will have a 90 degree, or more day, but not enough strung together to qualify as a true heatwave. So far, the cooler side is winning. ( or the less warm side , whatever floats your boat  .

Seems rainfall is one main reason for the cooler weather, ( no dry/hot source region to tap ) along with the upstream blocking, the previous long duration -SOI /MJO and the cold pool in the NW Atlantic.  

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I have come to the idea that usually when we have mild winters, our summers are on the cooler side. And when our winters are cold and snowy, we get heat waves. 

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6 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I have come to the idea that usually when we have mild winters, our summers are on the cooler side. And when our winters are cold and snowy, we get heat waves. 

Hmm,  I am not sure about that.

We have had some cooler summers earlier in the decade. Recent summers have been warm and muggy.  

I do recall a conversation with bluewave from the NYC forum and it had to do with the warm waters of the Western Atlantic and the recent years where the WAR was very powerful. Also, how summer has lasted well into the Fall the last 5 years. 

bluewave posted a map of record high temps and without going into a lot of detail when you see these record highs in the summer many of these were along the edge of the WAR over the SE coastline and a bit inland. The morale of the story here is, the warm waters and feedback may be , or is, contributing to longer lasting summers in the East and SE, and summers have been warmer recently.   

 

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