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May 28th-30th Severe Potential


NJwx85
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Some of the storms moving through Williamsport area need to be watched as they cross into NJ. SBCAPE is largely gone but the warm front is hung up over the area and that could cause a localized increase in low level shear. That seems to be where the other tornado warned storms peaked.

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26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m sitting on the ocean at Jones beach and this is the most prolific lightning I have ever seen. It’s non stop 

I’m far from the ocean, halfway between the north shore and the south shore, and even I’m seeing occasional flashes out of the window.

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Day 1 outlook from the SPC now has NYC within the enhanced outlook.

SPC_d1.thumb.png.7aa8ee1f448e1000e401de9ca15f5d23.png

Today we have a backdoor cold front that will stall just S-W of the city during the afternoon, likely enhancing some hail/tornado threat in NJ as scattered supercells develop ahead of a bow echo. Forecast models are in surprisingly good agreement on this scenario, and it makes sense seeing the approaching shortwaves and clearing ahead of them.

I think wind will be the primary threat in the city since the inversion will be shallow and the line will be moving through during the convective max.  That boundary may also focus cells nearby and lead to flash flooding in areas that saw the heaviest rain yesterday evening.  

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