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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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18 hours ago, uncle W said:

since 1988 there were 8 years with a negative nao in January and 19 negative nao Mays...

yuck lol.  How many negative nao in December and February in that same time span Uncle?

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The record -NAO in May muted the influence of the SE Ridge for us. All the clouds, rain, and easterly flow suppressed our high temperatures.

2525BDED-9107-4126-A9F8-048720BB3141.png.f967a65e22560d0e184913f40ac9fe6a.png

Chris do you think the -nao is a response to that extreme ridge in the SE or vice versa?  Also would a -nao for July and August actually mean a warm and dry summer?  I saw a chart a few years ago that showed nao correlations to summer weather, and it had pos nao being linked to warm summers up to about south Jersey, from central Jersey through southern new england it showed a weak correlation between neg nao and warm summers and north of there the correlation was strong.

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Still a lot of CIN over the immediate coast but places 20 miles inland are now at 500-1000 J/KG with more as you head towards Philly. Potential exists over the next several hours for scattered to numerous pop up showers and thunderstorms. HRRR wants to keep the main focus mainly South of NYC but the HRDPS has more of a solid line moving through. 

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris do you think the -nao is a response to that extreme ridge in the SE or vice versa?  Also would a -nao for July and August actually mean a warm and dry summer?  I saw a chart a few years ago that showed nao correlations to summer weather, and it had pos nao being linked to warm summers up to about south Jersey, from central Jersey through southern new england it showed a weak correlation between neg nao and warm summers and north of there the correlation was strong.

There are warmer and cooler versions of a summer -NAO for our area. It all depends on how the -NAO combines with the other teleconnections. We are currently in a -NAO combo with the background pattern that is muting the high temperature potential.

Warmer -NAO summer group since 2007 for Newark

90 degree days for year

2010....54

2011....31

2012...33

2015...35

2016...40

Cooler group

2007...21

2008...22

2009...14

2014...15

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are warmer and cooler versions of a summer -NAO for our area. It all depends on how the -NAO combines with the other teleconnections. We are currently in a -NAO combo with the background pattern that is muting the high temperature potential.

Warmer -NAO summer group since 2007 for Newark

90 degree days for year

2010....54

2011....31

2012...33

2015...35

2016...40

Cooler group

2007...21

2008...22

2009...14

2014...15

I also believe that no sign of any 90 degree temps is a signal that we might be in for a cooler, but humid summer (based on soil moisture too.) 2010 is the record isn't it?  That's part of the 11 year cycle- expect that to happen again in 2021 ;-)

 

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I also believe that no sign of any 90 degree temps is a signal that we might be in for a cooler, but humid summer (based on soil moisture too.) 2010 is the record isn't it?  That's part of the 11 year cycle- expect that to happen again in 2021 ;-)

 

 

The new Euro seasonal update today continues the same general pattern for us.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

There are warmer and cooler versions of a summer -NAO for our area. It all depends on how the -NAO combines with the other teleconnections. We are currently in a -NAO combo with the background pattern that is muting the high temperature potential.

Warmer -NAO summer group since 2007 for Newark

90 degree days for year

2010....54

2011....31

2012...33

2015...35

2016...40

Cooler group

2007...21

2008...22

2009...14

2014...15

I'll take winter 2014-2015 all over again.

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Looks like instability increases a bit over the next few hours. I think we see some decent storms around midnight. May not be severe but probably a few rumbles of thunder and maybe some lightning. 

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4 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Looks like instability increases a bit over the next few hours. I think we see some decent storms around midnight. May not be severe but probably a few rumbles of thunder and maybe some lightning. 

Looks like activity develops to our southwest rather than the stuff out in PA

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41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like activity develops to our southwest rather than the stuff out in PA

That is true. Although hrrr has been very consistent with developing storms around NYC later tonight. There's a nice area of 1500 cape around Philly. You can see those storms are the best looking ones around. The instability *should* shift northeast tonight but we just need the moisture. 

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58 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

What is going on with this precip split. NYC is the the donut screw zone. If it were winter people would be having breakdowns right now

lol it doesn't matter, I have been "hit" twice and pretty much nada only some distant rumbles and light rain.

 

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14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I bought the battery but dont know how to install it lol.

It's not going to be a problem for awhile though I got this new one the same time I bought my new computer, which was last fall.

It's the Cyberpower PFC1000VA AVR model.

 

Battery replacement is straightforward and explained in the user manual, with illustrations, so you will have no trouble.

Do note that this unit takes 2 batteries, model RB1290A.  It is good practice to replace them both together, that way there is not one stronger than the other.

The user manual, actually more like the user sheet, is here:  https://dl4jz3rbrsfum.cloudfront.net/documents/CyberPower_UM_CP1000AVRLCD.pdf

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Foggy morning with our first 70 degree dew points of the season. Now that our summertime dews have arrived, the Euro drops some extreme rains to our south over the next week. The historic wet period since 2018 for the CONUS continues unabated.

Staten Island    N/A     70  70 100

3CB6EBE0-75BF-43B6-BCE9-0DF8C29D8172.thumb.png.9f26aac4ee910107a79157cf5075366c.png

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Foggy morning with our first 70 degree dew points of the season. Now that our summertime dews have arrived, the Euro drops some extreme rains to our south over the next week. The historic wet period since 2018 for the CONUS continues unabated.

Staten Island    N/A     70  70 100

3CB6EBE0-75BF-43B6-BCE9-0DF8C29D8172.thumb.png.9f26aac4ee910107a79157cf5075366c.png

How much of this rain is coming to us?

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8 minutes ago, TriPol said:

How much of this rain is coming to us?

Initially, the heaviest rains will stay to our south where the cutoff low stalls out. But once it ejects next week, that’s we we could see some heavy convection move north. As always, convection usually comes down to nowcast time for us.

 

E8F4C803-0A06-4003-9C16-41B3E292698F.thumb.png.f410d30ccf44a9685a4dd9dde845d6d7.png

6B8BF564-AC2C-491C-9B23-1E920BAC2B9D.thumb.png.fb364eab91d246b569044c96ab3b865f.png

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82/72 (HI 87) right now, only 0.09” overnight.

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2 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

It felt gross this morning for the first time all year, glad to be heading upstate for the weekend.

Where ya headed? They've gotten more rain than we have in most of the upstate areas so it doesn't take much for it to be very muggy. DON'T forget the bug spray, it's a special kind of year going on so far.

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