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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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6 hours ago, TriPol said:

Why? What evidence do you have to submit that shows that we're breaking out of a long-term weather pattern?

Invest a few trillion in weather control and get out of that sh1t weather pattern.  Today's weather is ideal, I can live with this kind of weather six days out of every week.

The only evidence I can think that we wont go back to awful rainy weather is that as you get deeper into summer that kind of pattern becomes much less likely.

 

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Not as confident on where the best precip chances set up after tomorrow night's deluge, but it looks increasingly likely we'll be backdoored from late Thursday through the weekend. Most guidance suggests we'll be drier and probably sunnier this round.

My guess is that if wet weather doesn't return Sunday, it will Monday...lingering into much of next week. That trough @bluewave posted above will produce stormy, southwest flow here as long as it's in the Great Lakes. Once the trough axis is as far east as the ECMWF above, wet weather would probably settle into the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic.

Also no relief in the middle of the country where they are basically flooded out.  It would be good to get us and the middle of the country into a drier pattern with rain going into the SE- they are the ones who need it, after their big heat wave they're almost in drought conditions down there.

 

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Also no relief in the middle of the country where they are basically flooded out.  It would be good to get us and the middle of the country into a drier pattern with rain going into the SE- they are the ones who need it, after their big heat wave they're almost in drought conditions down there.

yeah, hopefully the midwest will get in on some drier conditions. looks especially rough across TX/LA the next few days. pretty high likelihood for a swath of 6-12" inland from the coast.

the blocking and tendency for a beefy southeast ridge of late is worrisome, but i'm hopeful they'll get in on a wetter pattern across the southeast by mid-month. 

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Yeah, don't see why marginal won't cover NYC and southern New England on subsequent updates. Flow is fairly weak in mid-levels and lapse rates aren't like they were w/ the SI hail event last week, but there is some impressive moisture/theta-e return and focus in the region. Could maybe see some brief spin-ups along with isolated wet microbursts, in addition to the tropical downpours.

I dont think there is enough instability to warrant a marginal although based on today's model runs they might add it in tonight. 

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11 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

I dont think there is enough instability to warrant a marginal although based on today's model runs they might add it in tonight. 

Depends which model you look at. GFS and 18Z RGEM are weaker than NAM and a number of the other hi-res models. Really comes down to moisture return tomorrow since it looks like there will be plenty of heating. 

NAM3k.thumb.png.d25790cf033cffc6aec1a241b1ee916f.png

If we get dew points surging into the mid-60s or higher by late afternoon/early evening, we should be good for at least isolated cells after ~5PM. Otherwise, the low-level jet will do it later in the evening.

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14 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

yeah, hopefully the midwest will get in on some drier conditions. looks especially rough across TX/LA the next few days. pretty high likelihood for a swath of 6-12" inland from the coast.

the blocking and tendency for a beefy southeast ridge of late is worrisome, but i'm hopeful they'll get in on a wetter pattern across the southeast by mid-month. 

This is an unusual pattern.  I dont recall another year where there was such a long-lasting southeast ridge in the southeast and yet a big - NAO this late in spring/early summer.  Usually you'd get one or the other not both.  Maybe one is a response to the other?  A strong SE ridge should mean warmer and drier weather for us, but the -NAO has been fighting it off.  It's interesting that Philly and points south have been much warmer than us while New England has been considerably cooler.  

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23 hours ago, etudiant said:

 

By the way, any ideas on if the UPS should be turned off when the devices connected to it are off?  I want the battery to last as long as possible so I was thinking the UPS should be turned off when connected devices are all off.

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38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, what are the reasons we didn't have this at any point during the winter but somehow as soon as spring comes along we got this NAO signal?  It seems to be a pattern that happens a lot - is a neg NAO more common in the spring than in the winter for some reason?

I love this weather- nice and dry and sunny.  I just dont like it when it rains every other day and you dont see the sun for a month.  My ideal weather would be sunny 6 days out of every week and rain on the seventh day.  Maybe one day when humankind can finally control the weather we'll be able to do that ourselves.  And get rid of all the horrible flooding that happens when systems stall and the same pattern keeps repeating like they are having in the middle of the country.

 

 

It’s interesting how these patterns work out. Spring and sometimes summer have become the big -NAO seasons since 2013. We just set a new record low -NAO for May at -2.62.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s interesting how these patterns work out. Spring has become the big -NAO season since 2013. We just set a new record low -NAO for May at -2.62.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

Plus stagnant patterns and everything just being stuck in place for long periods of time!

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Plus stagnant patterns and everything just being stuck in place for long periods of time!

Makes long range forecasting easier once you figure out  what type of pattern will get stuck in place. It becomes a persistence forecast until something flips things to the next stuck weather pattern. Last winter threw a curve ball to the seasonal forecasts. The previous snowy pattern which was stuck in place since 2013 finally took a breather. Was it a brief interruption before we go back or a new pattern setting in?Stay tuned...

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37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Makes long range forecasting easier once you figure out  what type of pattern will get stuck in place. It becomes a persistence forecast until something flips things to the next stuck weather pattern. Last winter threw a curve ball to the seasonal forecasts. The previous snowy pattern which was stuck in place since 2013 finally took a breather. Was it a brief interruption before we go back or a new pattern setting in?Stay tuned...

the real trick will be being able to predict when the pattern will change and what the new stagnant pattern will be once the inevitable eventual change occurs ;-)

 

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38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the real trick will be being able to predict when the pattern will change and what the new stagnant pattern will be once the inevitable eventual change occurs ;-)

 

A few of the long range climate models did a good job predicting the 2013 shift ahead of time. So there are clues that the models can pick up on. But some of the subpatterns within this greater shift have only become obvious after the fact.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s interesting how these patterns work out. Spring and sometimes summer have become the big -NAO seasons since 2013. We just set a new record low -NAO for May at -2.62.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

since 1988 there were 8 years with a negative nao in January and 19 negative nao Mays...

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

since 1988 there were 8 years with a negative nao in January and 19 negative nao Mays...

Is the NAO forecast to stay negative?

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11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

By the way, any ideas on if the UPS should be turned off when the devices connected to it are off?  I want the battery to last as long as possible so I was thinking the UPS should be turned off when connected devices are all off.

Turning off the UPS when you turn off all the other devices makes sense, it cuts out any risks of voltage surges. The increased battery life is minimal, but it does no harm.

Replacing the UPS batteries is really no problem though, plus it is a $50 for the battery vs $250 for a minimally decent new UPS.

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Next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or about 3.5degs. AN.

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7 hours ago, TriPol said:

Is the NAO forecast to stay negative?

for now but its to early to forecast what it will be next winter...

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8 hours ago, TriPol said:

Is the NAO forecast to stay negative?

It will take another dip in about 6-10 days. The May record drop has reset it negative for the time being. So it’s a more of the same type of weather pattern.

7A895C02-15E2-4E28-9BB8-E7F1BE9C7665.thumb.png.fca1335dcdb69323923bfd4de0bd7d8d.png

6C06C87F-5298-421A-83EA-CF064D41CF0B.png.e4442971d52b885dde468f8d1227ec7a.png

 

 

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will take another dip in about 6-10 days. The May record drop has reset it negative for the time being. So it’s a more of the same type of weather pattern.

7A895C02-15E2-4E28-9BB8-E7F1BE9C7665.thumb.png.fca1335dcdb69323923bfd4de0bd7d8d.png

6C06C87F-5298-421A-83EA-CF064D41CF0B.png.e4442971d52b885dde468f8d1227ec7a.png

 

 

Where was this in January eh

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1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Where was this in January eh

If this follows past years, then the summer may continue with some degree of a -NAO pattern. We’ll just have to wait and see.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1136004583946432513

June 2019 looks to feature a -NAO, but does this suggest it will dominate the summer? Historical analysis suggests so, with only 6 of 39 (15%) Junes with a negative mean NAO forming part of a JJA period with a +NAO.

You're correct, I was just thinking of the three months as a whole (i.e. there's unlikely to be a massive swing to offset a negative June, or further neg.). But here's the equivalent for Jul-Aug vs. June. Weaker relationship, 14 positive Jul-Aug of 39 negative Junes (36%).

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will take another dip in about 6-10 days. The May record drop has reset it negative for the time being. So it’s a more of the same type of weather pattern.

7A895C02-15E2-4E28-9BB8-E7F1BE9C7665.thumb.png.fca1335dcdb69323923bfd4de0bd7d8d.png

6C06C87F-5298-421A-83EA-CF064D41CF0B.png.e4442971d52b885dde468f8d1227ec7a.png

 

 

Very surprised the big heat has been muted this year.  The southeast has certainly got it's share though.

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7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Very surprised the big heat has been muted this year.  The southeast has certainly got it's share though.

It will be interesting to see what impact if any the very wet spring has on the heat down the road

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Models aren't handling this complex in western PA well at all. KCLE radar shows a rear inflow jet and loops indicate a mesoscale vort that should continue eastwards across PA towards us. It's interesting the SPC meso-analysis indicates almost no instability, yet new cells keep firing. I think w/ good heating ahead of it, and an influx of 65+ Tds up the NJ shore this afternoon, we should see a flare up over and especially on the east side of the mountains. Timing out its current motion would put scattered cells just west-southwest of the city by 5, reaching NYC 6-7PM. 

060519.thumb.png.bcf4950d17b5605ce9be97fcc5903e5b.png

We'll have to see whether the hourly updating models pick up on this feature. So far almost no 12Z guidance is doing well.

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Near-shore water temps in the low to mid-60s and dry air just above the surface are a negating factor, but there is a narrow corridor across the Delmarva and NJ where better moisture transport and higher instability will occur.  With the good heating, a seabreeze will shift inland, bringing higher dew points (50s possible much of the day where temps warm well into the 80s) but milder temperatures. 

15Z HRRR sfc-based instability valid 22Z (max just inland from the coast where upper 70s T and upper 60s Td align):

1472256708_ScreenShot2019-06-05at12_18_02PM.thumb.png.bbd208cb45158da43f603b9583b81b98.png

15Z RAP (KEWR at 23Z) and HRRR (south Manhattan at 23Z) both indicate a potential for isolated severe cells (most likely near sea-breeze fronts):

606674664_ScreenShot2019-06-05at12_04_01PM.thumb.png.3bb9a315a83e151d6c499c2c6a9d23c1.png

951590730_ScreenShot2019-06-05at12_09_23PM.thumb.png.3b5469133c5b8a8f4eea189b9e34aa2e.png

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Pretty ridiculous Greenland blocking on the models especially for what will be mid June. 

Definitely no big heat (85+) for the foreseeable future. I wonder what role this will play for the hurricane season.

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The convection over West Central PA looks like it's weakening. Most of the lightning strikes have been confined to a few cells South of I-80 and activity looks to be decreasing. 

I think at most we will see some widely scattered thunderstorms after 4PM but it doesn't look like a big deal to me. Most of the SBCAPE is currently South of 195 with CIN over Northern areas.

With that being said, the latest HRRR does have SBCAPE increasing to around 1300 J/KG by 00z so we shall see if coverage is greater.

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4 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Very surprised the big heat has been muted this year.  The southeast has certainly got it's share though.

The record -NAO in May muted the influence of the SE Ridge for us. All the clouds, rain, and easterly flow suppressed our high temperatures.

2525BDED-9107-4126-A9F8-048720BB3141.png.f967a65e22560d0e184913f40ac9fe6a.png

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9 hours ago, etudiant said:

Turning off the UPS when you turn off all the other devices makes sense, it cuts out any risks of voltage surges. The increased battery life is minimal, but it does no harm.

Replacing the UPS batteries is really no problem though, plus it is a $50 for the battery vs $250 for a minimally decent new UPS.

I bought the battery but dont know how to install it lol.

It's not going to be a problem for awhile though I got this new one the same time I bought my new computer, which was last fall.

It's the Cyberpower PFC1000VA AVR model.

 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pretty ridiculous Greenland blocking on the models especially for what will be mid June. 

Definitely no big heat (85+) for the foreseeable future. I wonder what role this will play for the hurricane season.

dont we still have an el nino? It might mean a muted season

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