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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

well that changed in a hurry


.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Northwest winds
around 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. 

.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. 

.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 90s. 

.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain
30 percent. 

Sure did, did a double take when i look at my local forecast. From 70s to 90s

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I am kind of surprised to see Upton go hotter then Mt.Holly, usually it is the other way around. Have to see if Mt.Holly goes hotter in later updates but currently there isn't a huge forecast temp difference.. Here are the zone forecasts for Middlesex and Eastern Union Co NJ.

Mt.Holly:

 

Middlesex-
 Including the city of New Brunswick
 630 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019
 
 .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers this
 evening, then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms after
 midnight. Warmer with lows in the upper 60s. South winds around
 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
 .TUESDAY...Cloudy with showers with a chance of thunderstorms in
 the morning, then partly sunny with a chance of showers in the
 afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid 80s. South winds around
 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.
 .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Humid with lows in the upper 60s.
 Northwest winds around 5 mph. 
 .WEDNESDAY...Sunny with highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds
 around 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. 
 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming
 partly cloudy. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. Southwest winds
 around 5 mph. 
 .THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. 
 .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. 
 .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. 
 .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers after
 midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
 .SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
 thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
 .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
 thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
 .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 
 .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
 mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. 
 .MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 
 

Upton:

 

NJZ108-250815-
Eastern Union-
729 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a slight chance of
thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 70. Southeast winds
around 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Cloudy with showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny with a chance of
showers in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid 80s. South
winds around 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance
of rain 80 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the
evening. Lows around 70. West winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain
20 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Northwest winds
around 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming
partly cloudy. Lows around 70. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 90s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain
30 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight.
Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.

$$
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7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I am kind of surprised to see Upton go hotter then Mt.Holly, usually it is the other way around. Have to see if Mt.Holly goes hotter in later updates but currently there isn't a huge forecast temp difference.. Here are the zone forecasts for Middlesex and Eastern Union 

Yeah and that was a big jump from this morning which had mid to upper 80s

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We could wake up to some decent thunderstorms tomorrow morning. I don't think any will be severe but our area always does well with early morning warm fronts. There is no instability with the early morning stuff but some forecast models do try and develop additional storms around noon when the instability starts creeping in. Something to monitor for tomorrow. 

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After some showers and perhaps thundershowers tonight into tomorrow, a taste of summer will be on tap for several days. Some locations in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could experience their warmest readings so far this summer.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July.

The SOI was -0.91 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.155.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.3°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 23, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.708 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.850.

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. The latest run of the EPS weeklies has now retreated from its cool outlook for the first 10 days of July. It has moved closer to the idea that the period will wind up warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region.

Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter).

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City remains near 50%.

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From Upton’s Early morning AFD:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A warm front approaches the region this morning. Warm advection
ahead of the front coupled with lowering heights will be enough to
support a band of showers and a few rumbles of thunders to develop
across the NYC metro, Hudson River Corridor, western Long Island,
and southwest Connecticut during the morning commute. There could be
pockets of moderate to heavy rain. The showers should largely hold
off further east until after the morning commute.

No concerns for severe weather at this time due to lack of surface
instability and no apparent wave along the warm front to enhance low
level shear.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Heavy thunderstorms moving through. Wet pattern continues with NYC only able to go 3 days without rain.

 

DA61D8AC-973F-4024-9E36-6469E0920DBA.thumb.png.cd7942a03ce860192e372a2add3cc8f3.png

Quite the soaking this morn, lot of thunder and lightning too. Got drenched walking this am.

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