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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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40 minutes ago, frd said:

You often read about the role of soil moisture and seasonal temps,  more so in the fall and in the spring. I believe DT talks about this aspect a lot. I believe though it is many times used but may not really be a sound forecast tool. 

Either the area of excessive rainfall is rather small , or the anomaly is not that great and because of that it can easily be reversed by the high sun angle, longer days and high temps of late spring and early summer. 

Here though, in your post,  it really shows this time it can not be so easily overlooked.  The map is pretty impressive,  not only in regards to record soil moisture, but also the vast area covered.  

of interest is this :

 

 

Yeah, this area is so extensive that it’s able to have more of an impact. But it’s also an indication of the continuing record wet pattern. Brian B had an interesting thread on seasonal temperature trends across the US. While this year is a reflection of the extreme rains and stuck weather patterns, long term there has been muted high summer temperatures there. Maybe a combination of weather patterns and long term land use changes and irrigation.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1140048246477168640

100-year trend (change) in summer high (left) and low (right) temperatures based on NCEI county-level climate data. Notice anything different?

 

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe a combination of weather patterns and long term land use changes and irrigation.

Thanks,  and yes that all makes sense. 

Higher temps at night, looking at the East Coast possibly.  Irrigation makes sense too over the past 100 years.  

As you know,  the article mentioned this is only summer, and the other seasons are very different. ( when comparing )  seems the oceans are at play here too , the Atlantic warming and at times the +PDO, when looking at the Fall and the winter comparisons 

As for the rain and crazy flow this spring speculation on the low solar min as some NASA folks have looked at it and feel there may be a relationship in jet activity and weather flow from the coming solar min.   

Glancing a couple days ago at your chart of the NW cold pool SSTs and looking back in time I felt there was a relationship with the cold pool and the solar min .  Not scientific at all just a quick glance.  The recent record was pretty obvious on that chart.  And, I believe we are not at the min yet. 2020 I think ? 

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30 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Last several runs of the HRRR showing a lull in precip/storms from about 9 am until 2 pm, which would be perfect for our BBQ; crossing fingers...

That batch in PA seems like it's going to stay north of 78 but there are some individual cells to watch out for 

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28 minutes ago, frd said:

Thanks,  and yes that all makes sense. 

Higher temps at night, looking at the East Coast possibly.  Irrigation makes sense too over the past 100 years.  

As you know,  the article mentioned this is only summer, and the other seasons are very different. ( when comparing )  seems the oceans are at play here too , the Atlantic warming and at times the +PDO, when looking at the Fall and the winter comparisons 

As for the rain and crazy flow this spring speculation on the low solar min as some NASA folks have looked at it and feel there may be a relationship in jet activity and weather flow from the coming solar min.   

Glancing a couple days ago at your chart of the NW cold pool SSTs and looking back in time I felt there was a relationship with the cold pool and the solar min .  Not scientific at all just a quick glance.  The recent record was pretty obvious on that chart.  And, I believe we are not at the min yet. 2020 I think ? 

Yeah, warming SST’s are a big piece of the puzzle. Along with more moisture and clouds keeping up the minimums. But solar links to particular weather patterns can be difficult to establish.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3

 

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, warming SST’s are a big piece of the puzzle. Along with more moisture and clouds keeping up the minimums. But solar links to particular weather patterns can be difficult to establish.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3

 

 

 

 

 

 

Without question the ability to predict the -NAO accurately in advance is not possible. No one can I believe at this time claim to be able to.  

If a person states he or she can without being open and sharing how and what tool they use I just file under BS. 

Many pros have in the past stated using various secret formulas, solar, tripole, temps in a box over the ocean, the cold pool, cycles, ice melt, analogs etc. , etc., but to this day I have never seen a person be able to forecast the NAO more than 3 to 7 days in advance.  

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34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That batch in PA seems like it's going to stay north of 78 but there are some individual cells to watch out for 

If purely judging by existing radar returns, we look to remain dry for the next few hours; unfortunately, convection has to start somewhere and can't rule out cells that pop up over us in that timeframe.  Still, looks better than it did last night...

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12 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

If purely judging by existing radar returns, we look to remain dry for the next few hours; unfortunately, convection has to start somewhere and can't rule out cells that pop up over us in that timeframe.  Still, looks better than it did last night...

0.36 in the Davis so far today up this way. Nice AFD from Upton, a section below;


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1010 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm front in close proximity to the NYC metro and this will be
key this afternoon as a frontal wave approaches from the west.
The 06Z NAM NEST and latest HRRR continue to keep showers
across the area for much of the day with the potential for
strong/severe convection around the NYC/NJ metro in the 18Z to
22Z timeframe. Conditions are favorable at the very least for
some heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding (see below).

Weak low pressure over central PA rides along the stationary
front located near the NYC metro, and passes over the area this
afternoon into this evening. Synoptic scale setup supports
moderate to heavy rain, with H8 frontogenesis and weak elevated
instability in the cool sector north of the front across the
interior especially from the lower Hudson Valley into SW CT, an
upper level jet streak over southern CT possibly enhancing lift,
also via sfc-based instability in the warm sector or very close
to NE NJ and the NYC metro area. With WSW mid level flow 35-40
kt a few storms from NYC metro south/west could produce strong
to locally severe wind gusts, as well as produce locally heavy
rain as PW increases to near 2 inches.

Some CAM`s and also the ECMWF are forecasting bands of heavy
rain to the tune of 2-4 inches across the interior. Previous
waves of low pressure have not lived up to model QPF
expectations, so think this is overdone and have played the
forecast more conservatively than otherwise might be the case
for the time being. Given the more favorable larger scale
factors coming into play this afternoon, this situation might be
different, and it is still possible that a short fused flash
flood watch may become necessary for parts of the area for this
afternoon/evening.

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10 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

0.36 in the Davis so far today up this way. Nice AFD from Upton, a section below;

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1010 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm front in close proximity to the NYC metro and this will be
key this afternoon as a frontal wave approaches from the west.
The 06Z NAM NEST and latest HRRR continue to keep showers
across the area for much of the day with the potential for
strong/severe convection around the NYC/NJ metro in the 18Z to
22Z timeframe. Conditions are favorable at the very least for
some heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding (see below).

Weak low pressure over central PA rides along the stationary
front located near the NYC metro, and passes over the area this
afternoon into this evening. Synoptic scale setup supports
moderate to heavy rain, with H8 frontogenesis and weak elevated
instability in the cool sector north of the front across the
interior especially from the lower Hudson Valley into SW CT, an
upper level jet streak over southern CT possibly enhancing lift,
also via sfc-based instability in the warm sector or very close
to NE NJ and the NYC metro area. With WSW mid level flow 35-40
kt a few storms from NYC metro south/west could produce strong
to locally severe wind gusts, as well as produce locally heavy
rain as PW increases to near 2 inches.

Some CAM`s and also the ECMWF are forecasting bands of heavy
rain to the tune of 2-4 inches across the interior. Previous
waves of low pressure have not lived up to model QPF
expectations, so think this is overdone and have played the
forecast more conservatively than otherwise might be the case
for the time being. Given the more favorable larger scale
factors coming into play this afternoon, this situation might be
different, and it is still possible that a short fused flash
flood watch may become necessary for parts of the area for this
afternoon/evening.

Yep, just saw the new first paragraph; latest 3 km NAM and HRRR keep the Rahway area dry through 2-3 pm, which is what we need; of course the 12 km NAM has showers for us in that time, as do the globals.  Going to be a close call...

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24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Yep, just saw the new first paragraph; latest 3 km NAM and HRRR keep the Rahway area dry through 2-3 pm, which is what we need; of course the 12 km NAM has showers for us in that time, as do the globals.  Going to be a close call...

Storms seem to be lining up now

 

inxr1kphla.gif

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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Storms seem to be lining up now

 

inxr1kphla.gif

Looks as if the storm hitting Allentown will be here by around 1pm. Then perhaps a break for a few hours before another round later in the afternoon. 12z RGEM shows the 2 rounds hitting us, one early afternoon and another late afternoon.

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For the LI crew, heavy downpour moving along the South Shore.

 

7223B79C-7460-4CE2-83B6-A278A89641D5.thumb.png.100fc643765b443131aaa31cd1bd0113.png

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Make it stop for the love of god

 

my veggies are drowning. 

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June really hasn't been particularly wet here, 1.58” so far so I’m probably slightly behind on precipitation. Driest first half of a month since January.

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1-2” per hour maximum radar rainfall estimates showing up with those training cells moving east.

 

3867A87B-82FE-4E78-9143-2D37EF57F84E.thumb.png.c05f3a61637de60c44faddb3ca299529.png

FDFAC3D8-8C92-467B-AC8F-4928B12630FB.thumb.png.cc0ad1c59daac1a4d4b7836e469cfe28.png

 

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3 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Yep, just saw the new first paragraph; latest 3 km NAM and HRRR keep the Rahway area dry through 2-3 pm, which is what we need; of course the 12 km NAM has showers for us in that time, as do the globals.  Going to be a close call...

We got incredibly lucky here in Rahway.  Had no rain from 9 am until 1:00 pm, allowing setup to proceed for our big BBQ (1500 people) without any issues and giving us the first 90 minutes (11:30-2:30 pm BBQ, with most people visiting before 1:30 pm) rain-free, when that entire time the radar had it raining <5 miles north of us in most of the rest of Union County.  Got some spotty showers until 1:30 pm and then the rain hit with a vengenace.  Been raining moderately to occasionally heavily since 1:30 pm.  Kind of funny to see everyone hanging out under the tents we have (enough for about 500) and then those who forgot umbrellas walking away under the plastic tablecloths being used as rain gear.  Luckily I'm under a gazebo with my equipment (I'm DJ-ing the event) and everything is dry.  Could've been way, way worse...

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It looks to me like the best area for severe potential maybe be from about New Brunswick south with heavy rain/strong storms possible north of there. Have to see how the rest of the afternoon/evening plays out.

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If it were me I’d warn that right-mover sup passing through central jersey.

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Yep looks like Union, Somerset and Middlesex Co's are in a good spot for heavy rain right now especially Somerset and Middlesex. I also just started getting some thunder here.

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