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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

No surprise that the front is stalled out near 40N with a SST gradient like this. The cold pool east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes set a new record coldest SST’s for the month of May.

@bluewave this SST configuration is also supporting the -NAO. is that true ? 

Seems according to Ventrice that the NAO may be trending down yet again. nothing extreme. But the general - NAO pattern is still there. 

Also, how does this cold pool dissapate or does it linger into the Fall ?  

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1 hour ago, frd said:

@bluewave this SST configuration is also supporting the -NAO. is that true ? 

Seems according to Ventrice that the NAO may be trending down yet again. nothing extreme. But the general - NAO pattern is still there. 

Also, how does this cold pool dissapate or does it linger into the Fall ?  

It’s just representative of a pattern with an unusually strong 50/50 low. Notice how the ensembles keep underestimating its strength around 7-10 days out. So the high temperature potential continues to get muted.

New run

EB8D35FB-57E3-4C8C-AD9D-D71A9483DDB0.thumb.png.7dc1c3678c870d67cc77c4a4395796fe.png

Old run

84FEA8A3-FF4F-4943-8C24-86C07A0FF71D.thumb.png.66abe1af7c099268aee36bcee39d7a45.png

 

 

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This is like the inverse of last summer when the models kept trying to break down the WAR past D10 only to get slapped back to reality in the mid range. I'm not going to complain. 

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Just now, Gravity Wave said:

This is like the inverse of last summer when the models kept trying to break down the WAR past D10 only to get slapped back to reality in the mid range. I'm not going to complain. 

I'll be complaining when the pattern flips and the WAR rears its ugly head just in time for winter.

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49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s just representative of a pattern with an unusually strong 50/50 low. Notice how the ensembles keep underestimating its strength around 7-10 days out. So the high temperature potential continues to get muted.

That is a remarkable new run for sure.  I know a couple weather pros that mention the  cold pool as a signal for a -NAO next winter. 

That would be great if it were to happen, but I am not so sure. Also, would not the theory of peaks and valleys simply create an outcome more likely of a +NAO. 

And,  then we keep hearing about melting sea ice and warm season blocking.  Maybe the current climate argues against a -NAO in the heart of winter.  More research is needed. 

The only thing certain now is the unlikely odds of a long extreme heat wave around these parts, any time soon.

 

 

    

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Meet the new boss - same as the old boss, lol.  Just noticed that the old GFS is gone and the "new and improved" GFS-FV3 is here to stay.  Below is the NOAA press release.  No mention of what seemed like poor performance with overpredicting snowfall all last winter.  Performance was only addressed in a general fashion as performing "better" than the old GFS, which will be retired in September of this year.  I assume the "GFS" on Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal and other sources is now the GFS-FV3 (Pivotal still lists "GFS-Legacy" which presumably is the old GFS).  

"The GFS upgrade underwent rigorous testing led by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center and NCEP Central Operations that included more than 100 scientists, modelers, programmers and technicians from around the country. With real-time evaluations for a year alongside the previous version of the GFS, NOAA carefully documented the strengths of each. When tested against historic weather dating back an additional three years, the upgraded FV3-based GFS performed better across a wide range of weather phenomena.

The scientific and performance evaluation shows that the upgraded FV3-based GFS provides results equal to or better than the current global model in many measures. This upgrade establishes the foundation to further advancements in the future as we improve observation quality control, data assimilation, and the model physics."

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-us-global-weather-forecast-model

 

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On 6/7/2019 at 4:00 PM, RU848789 said:

Hey folks - was looking to see if anyone has any input on how serious the rain threat is for Thursday afternoon in the Rahway area.  We're scheduled to have a big BBQ for work and almost every major global model right now is showing what looks to be a fairly vigorous upper level trough digging pretty far into the SE with a surface low then tracking NE towards our area, with fairly significant rains from Weds night through Thursday afternoon (NWS NYC/Philly offices are talking about potentially decent rainfall that day in their AFDs).  We need to make a call on having it or postponing by Monday at 4 pm - and we do have a couple of covered pavilions in case of a shower or two, but a steady rain would be worth postponing for - so there's still some time to sort things out, but it's not looking great right now.  Any insight would be appreciated - thanks!

Turns out I postponed our Thursday, 6/13 BBQ at 3 pm on Monday, 6/10, given too high of a probability of rain on Thursday.  Ended up being a good decision as 1-2" of rain fell in the Rahway area on Thursday morning and even though the afternoon ended up being dry and cool, the fields were a muddy, puddly mess, which would've sucked for an outdoor event other than mud wrestling (which could've been a sight to see, lol).  

So, folks, have another event tomorrow with questions: we have a Rahway Site BBQ (different group at work) scheduled for 11:30 am to 2:30 pm tomorrow, rain or shine (we'll have tents for up to 500 people).  Still can't get a good handle on tomorrow at this time from the 12Z models.  GFS/CMC look quite rainy, but the more granular (in time and scale) mesoscale models are iffy.  12 km NAM just shows a passing shower, while the convection-allowing 3 km NAM shows a more robust line of storms over much of the 12-2 timeframe; presumably the 3 km NAM should be better for this kind of setup.  WPC shows tomorrow as being at risk of heavy rain/flash flooding, but little risk of t-storms (same from SPC, which has us under "marginal" risk of convection).  Since this is rain or shine, there's not that much to do other than hope it doesn't rain a lot and keep attendance down, especially since t-storm risks look low.  Anyone have additional insight to share?  

Thought the NWS-NYC discussion from this morning was spot on, given the high uncertainties associated with mesoscale summertime showers along stationary fronts.  As I've told the event organizer, this could easily be a dry event, but one also can't rule out a couple of showers with the potential for brief downpours and that we'll likely not know for sure until 6-12 hours before the event (and even then could be surprised).  

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The pattern doesn`t change all that much tonight and Tuesday, with
rain chances being driven by the timing of weak waves of low
pressure at the surface and aloft. There`s somewhat better agreement
among the models for likely PoPs eventually reaching all parts of
the forecast area at some point tonight and then lasting into a
portion of Tuesday. Without sufficient confidence to lower PoPs from
the previous forecast, will leave in likely PoPs across the entire
area through all of Tuesday. With that said, there will likely be
more time when it isn`t raining on Tuesday versus when it is, and
greater overall coverage of rain is probably in the morning into
early afternoon. Instability and lift remain lacking, so although an
isolated TSTM cannot be completely ruled out, will leave it out of
the forecast for now.

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Turns out I postponed our Thursday, 6/13 BBQ at 3 pm on Monday, 6/10, given too high of a probability of rain on Thursday.  Ended up being a good decision as 1-2" of rain fell in the Rahway area on Thursday morning and even though the afternoon ended up being dry and cool, the fields were a muddy, puddly mess, which would've sucked for an outdoor event other than mud wrestling (which could've been a sight to see, lol).  

So, folks, have another event tomorrow with questions: we have a Rahway Site BBQ (different group at work) scheduled for 11:30 am to 2:30 pm tomorrow, rain or shine (we'll have tents for up to 500 people).  Still can't get a good handle on tomorrow at this time from the 12Z models.  GFS/CMC look quite rainy, but the more granular (in time and scale) mesoscale models are iffy.  12 km NAM just shows a passing shower, while the convection-allowing 3 km NAM shows a more robust line of storms over much of the 12-2 timeframe; presumably the 3 km NAM should be better for this kind of setup.  WPC shows tomorrow as being at risk of heavy rain/flash flooding, but little risk of t-storms (same from SPC, which has us under "marginal" risk of convection).  Since this is rain or shine, there's not that much to do other than hope it doesn't rain a lot and keep attendance down, especially since t-storm risks look low.  Anyone have additional insight to share?  

Thought the NWS-NYC discussion from this morning was spot on, given the high uncertainties associated with mesoscale summertime showers along stationary fronts.  As I've told the event organizer, this could easily be a dry event, but one also can't rule out a couple of showers with the potential for brief downpours and that we'll likely not know for sure until 6-12 hours before the event (and even then could be surprised).  


 

I feel like it's going to be hit and miss so best of luck

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3 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Turns out I postponed our Thursday, 6/13 BBQ at 3 pm on Monday, 6/10, given too high of a probability of rain on Thursday.  Ended up being a good decision as 1-2" of rain fell in the Rahway area on Thursday morning and even though the afternoon ended up being dry and cool, the fields were a muddy, puddly mess, which would've sucked for an outdoor event other than mud wrestling (which could've been a sight to see, lol).  

So, folks, have another event tomorrow with questions: we have a Rahway Site BBQ (different group at work) scheduled for 11:30 am to 2:30 pm tomorrow, rain or shine (we'll have tents for up to 500 people).  Still can't get a good handle on tomorrow at this time from the 12Z models.  GFS/CMC look quite rainy, but the more granular (in time and scale) mesoscale models are iffy.  12 km NAM just shows a passing shower, while the convection-allowing 3 km NAM shows a more robust line of storms over much of the 12-2 timeframe; presumably the 3 km NAM should be better for this kind of setup.  WPC shows tomorrow as being at risk of heavy rain/flash flooding, but little risk of t-storms (same from SPC, which has us under "marginal" risk of convection).  Since this is rain or shine, there's not that much to do other than hope it doesn't rain a lot and keep attendance down, especially since t-storm risks look low.  Anyone have additional insight to share?  

Thought the NWS-NYC discussion from this morning was spot on, given the high uncertainties associated with mesoscale summertime showers along stationary fronts.  As I've told the event organizer, this could easily be a dry event, but one also can't rule out a couple of showers with the potential for brief downpours and that we'll likely not know for sure until 6-12 hours before the event (and even then could be surprised).  

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The pattern doesn`t change all that much tonight and Tuesday, with
rain chances being driven by the timing of weak waves of low
pressure at the surface and aloft. There`s somewhat better agreement
among the models for likely PoPs eventually reaching all parts of
the forecast area at some point tonight and then lasting into a
portion of Tuesday. Without sufficient confidence to lower PoPs from
the previous forecast, will leave in likely PoPs across the entire
area through all of Tuesday. With that said, there will likely be
more time when it isn`t raining on Tuesday versus when it is, and
greater overall coverage of rain is probably in the morning into
early afternoon. Instability and lift remain lacking, so although an
isolated TSTM cannot be completely ruled out, will leave it out of
the forecast for now.

models look wet for tomorrow...new NAM: 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_23.png

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36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models look wet for tomorrow...new NAM: 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_23.png

Absolutely. Most of the activity has remained to our south the past 2 days however the 18z forecast models want to shift the convection and heavier rain further north tomorrow. The potential for 1-3 inches of rain is possible where every the heavier bands setup. 

18z 3K NAM

VC5hnSQ.gif

 

18z HRRR

GbqtN1I.gif

 

 

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Quite literally everyone on my street took the afternoon off to mow during this brief reprieve from the wet conditions. A mighty din of rattling engines greets you immediately upon egress from the house.

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Just now, Juliancolton said:

Quite literally everyone on my street took the afternoon off to mow during this brief reprieve from the wet conditions. A mighty din of rattling engines greets you immediately upon egress from the house.

Which, I mean... lawns are extremely silly. Instead of being able to make actual improvements to your property, you have to spend the week's only dry day just maintaining the status quo.

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31 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Which, I mean... lawns are extremely silly. Instead of being able to make actual improvements to your property, you have to spend the week's only dry day just maintaining the status quo.

native meadows

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7 hours ago, frd said:

That is a remarkable new run for sure.  I know a couple weather pros that mention the  cold pool as a signal for a -NAO next winter. 

That would be great if it were to happen, but I am not so sure. Also, would not the theory of peaks and valleys simply create an outcome more likely of a +NAO. 

And,  then we keep hearing about melting sea ice and warm season blocking.  Maybe the current climate argues against a -NAO in the heart of winter.  More research is needed. 

The only thing certain now is the unlikely odds of a long extreme heat wave around these parts, any time soon.   

8th longest -NAO period on record. The last top 10 run during winter was 10-11. Parts of the area had 60” of snow in just over 30 days. Remarkable that 5 out of the top 10 longest runs occurred during such a short interval from 2010 to 2012. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1140676758997483520

The current negative North Atlantic Oscillation period has already lasted for 53 days, which makes it 8th longest -NAO periods on record. Still couple of days likely to be added.

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Today, readings remained in the 70s across the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. However, temperatures reached the 90s in such cities as Baltimore, Richmond, and Washington, DC.

A disturbance heading eastward will bring an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms to the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions tonight through Wednesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -7.59 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was unavailable. The AO could go positive in coming days. However, that period could be short-lived as renewed blocking develops.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 16, the MJO moved into Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.845 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.425.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 46%.

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5 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Quite literally everyone on my street took the afternoon off to mow during this brief reprieve from the wet conditions. A mighty din of rattling engines greets you immediately upon egress from the house.

Here that was Sunday. They let it dry out on Saturday with the wind then mowed and trimmed and blew clean and ran the chainsaws and chippers and... It was loud. I'm so glad I've got the front lawn down to about 20 minutes of good solid hill work with the mower and have all but given up on the back because nobody can see it but us. I'll have to run through it a few times but with all the trees and stuff down from the winter it's a disaster that I don't feel like tackling. I'd rather spend my yard time growing food, the garden is looking great this year.

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Does a cooler than normal Summer mean lower sst going into fall?  And do lower than average SST in summer mean rainy summer days with a NE wind temps can hover at 60 even in mid august which i have seen?

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On 6/15/2019 at 8:36 AM, TriPol said:

So, not to get into any climate change debates or anything, but there is MASSIVE ice melt from Greenland coming early this year. Would the melting ice have anything to do with the cool waters off of the NE coast and our weather being cooler than normal?

Yup. I suspected this from a couple of months ago. The cold pool of water may actually limit the heat up here, but a strong SE ridge can easily counter that.

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Flash Flood Watch extended until late tonight for my area, also a marginal risk for severe storms today which could be upgraded in later outlooks according to the SPC.

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Next 8 days are averaging 73.5degs., or 0.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.6[69.6].       Should be -0.2[70.4], by the 26th.

67.4* here with FOG, Vis. <200' at 6am.

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8 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Yup. I suspected this from a couple of months ago. The cold pool of water may actually limit the heat up here, but a strong SE ridge can easily counter that.

The other thing that is currently countering any major heat for us is the near record soil moisture and rains  to our west. Record cool temperatures for this time of year there.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/1140410971426398208

Today's high temperature of 60 degrees at Chicago O'hare is the coldest high during the second half of June that Chicago's experienced in over a quarter century. The last time it was this cold during the second half of June was back on June 20,1992 when the high was 57 degrees

 

16CC4C01-93A6-4F3B-A203-0BAD2444528F.gif.b9f360663d4b572980a1304ce6e2767f.gif

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